Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The pulp market is expected to operate in a volatile and weak manner. The main contract of pulp futures dropped significantly during the week, hitting a new monthly low, intensifying the panic in the spot market. Demand is deeply weak, and supply pressure is increasing. The high port inventory and the expected arrival of new shipments from Brazil in July continue to put pressure on spot liquidity. The reduction in the quoted price of softwood pulp also weakens cost support [84]. Summary by Directory Industry News - As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of pulp in Changshu Port was 546,000 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7%. The inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.352 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. The inventory in Gaolan Port was 138,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 11.5%. The total inventory of mainstream port samples in China was 2.163 million tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% [6]. - In May 2025, the inventory days of bleached softwood pulp of 20 world commodity pulp suppliers increased by 5 days to 46 days, and the inventory days of bleached hardwood pulp increased by 4 days to 51 days. The total shipment volume in May increased by 1.9% month - on - month, with the shipment volume of bleached softwood pulp increasing by 4.4% and that of bleached hardwood pulp increasing by 1.2% [6]. - In May 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 722,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 3.082 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 7.108 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.0% [6]. Market Data - On June 27, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 854 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase of 151.18%. The basis of Russian Needle was 24 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.54% and a year - on - year increase of 140.00%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 830 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.75% and a year - on - year increase of 107.50% [15]. - On June 27, 2025, the 09 - 11 month spread was 20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 44.44%. The 11 - 01 month spread was - 220 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 168.29% [20]. Fundamental Data - **Price**: - On June 27, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 123.53%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1,070 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.96% and a year - on - year increase of 137.78% [29]. - The import profit of Silver Star was 42 yuan/ton on June 27, 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 69.01% and a year - on - year increase of 107.79%. The star of hardwood pulp had no quotation in June, and the supply is expected to partially resume in July [34][35]. - On June 27, 2025, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Wood, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle were 5,950 yuan/ton, 6,050 yuan/ton, 6,250 yuan/ton, 6,050 yuan/ton, and 5,120 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 1.65%, 1.63%, 0.79%, 1.63%, and 2.48% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 5.56%, 4.72%, 1.57%, 4.72%, and 13.22% respectively [36]. - On June 27, 2025, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Bird, and Broadleaf were 4,050 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.22% and year - on - year decreases of 25.69%, 25.00%, 25.00%, and 22.86% respectively [44]. - On June 27, 2025, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 5,000 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 1.96% and 5.13% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 8.26% and 3.90% respectively [48]. - **Supply**: - In April 2025, the inventory in European ports decreased month - on - month, and the global pulp departure volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory in European ports was 1.352 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.77% and a year - on - year increase of 16.75%. The global pulp departure volume was 4.077 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.89% [51][52]. - In May 2025, the import volume of pulp showed differentiated month - on - month performance. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased by 4.75% month - on - month, and that of hardwood pulp increased by 7.84% month - on - month [54]. - **Demand**: - On June 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 73.90%, 63.40%, 57.15%, and 56.33% respectively, with month - on - month changes of 2.35%, 2.09%, 4.67%, and - 0.39% respectively, and year - on - year changes of - 3.90%, 0.06%, - 10.30%, and - 11.90% respectively [58]. - The average prices of white cardboard, wood pulp household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper on June 27, 2025 were 4,065 yuan/ton, 5,666.67 yuan/ton, 5,125 yuan/ton, and 5,400 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 0.73%, 1.16%, 0.73%, and 0.00% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 6.77%, 15.00%, 9.99%, and 4.85% respectively [59]. - The profits of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper on June 26 or 27, 2025 were 600 yuan/ton, 243.10 yuan/ton, 170.57 yuan/ton, and 912 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month changes of 2.56%, - 18.67%, 32.67%, and 4.29% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 76.47%, 358.51%, 255.35%, and 90.20% respectively [72]. - **Inventory**: - On June 27, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 228,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 49.06%. The warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 16,300 tons, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25% [73]. - On June 27, 2025, the inventories of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and the sum of Gaolan Port, Tianjin Port, and Rizhao Port were 1.352 million tons, 546,000 tons, and 265,000 tons respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 0.44%, - 6.67%, and 0.00% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 33.20%, 4.60%, and 52.30% respectively. The total inventory of the five ports was 2.163 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04% and a year - on - year increase of 26.42% [80]. Operation Suggestion - Pulp is expected to operate in a volatile and weak manner. It is predicted that pulp will maintain volatile consolidation and operate weakly in the near future. The main factors include weak demand, high port inventory, expected arrival of new shipments from Brazil, and the reduction in the quoted price of softwood pulp [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, with the release of macro - sentiment, pulp prices will oscillate, stabilize, and repair upwards, but the time and space for this are limited [74]. - The pulp market currently faces two main problems: high inventory levels and cost - transmission issues. The high inventory requires time for domestic paper mills to digest, and the weak demand in the paper market means that downstream paper mills have low willingness to purchase pulp at high prices [74]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of May 15, 2025, the pulp inventories in Changshu Port, Qingdao Port, and Gaolan Port all increased, with the total inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports reaching 219.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.0% [5]. - On May 15, Chenming Paper participated in an investor exchange. The company is promoting the resumption of production, strategic investment, and debt settlement. The 1 billion yuan in government funds has been fully in place, and most of the 2.31 billion yuan syndicated loan has been approved [5]. 3.2 Market Data - **Basis and Spread**: On May 16, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 944 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.88%, and the basis of Russian Needle was 94 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 161.11%. The spread between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15.00% [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: On May 16, 2025, the 07 - 09 monthly spread was 76 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.15%, and the 07 - 11 monthly spread was 150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 56.25% [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: - **Needle - Broadleaf Spread**: On May 16, 2025, the spread between Silver Star and Goldfish was 2050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%, and the spread between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.09% [25]. - **Import Profit**: On May 16, 2025, the import profit of Silver Star was - 39 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 74.29%, and the import profit of Star was - 432 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27.01% [28]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: On May 16, 2025, the prices of various coniferous pulps such as Silver Star and Northwood increased week - on - week, but decreased year - on - year [30]. - **Broadleaf Pulp**: On May 16, 2025, the prices of various broadleaf pulps such as Goldfish and Star increased week - on - week, but decreased year - on - year [37]. - **Natural and Chemimechanical Pulp**: On May 16, 2025, the price of Venus was 5300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.93%, and the price of Kunhe was 3900 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [41]. - **Supply**: - **European Port Inventory and Global Pulp Out - bound Volume**: In March 2025, European port inventory increased by 7.56% month - on - month, and in February 2025, global pulp out - bound volume decreased by 1.70% month - on - month [44]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In March 2025, the import volumes of coniferous and broadleaf pulps decreased, while the import volumes of natural and chemimechanical pulps increased [46]. - **Demand**: - **Finished Paper Capacity Utilization**: On May 16, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 68.05%, 62.60%, 56.06%, and 56.85% respectively. The capacity utilization rate of white cardboard decreased significantly week - on - week [49]. - **Finished Paper Price**: On May 16, 2025, the prices of various finished papers such as white cardboard and household tissue paper decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [50]. - **Finished Paper Profit**: On May 16, 2025, the profits of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper decreased week - on - week, but increased year - on - year [59]. - **Inventory**: - **Futures Inventory**: On May 16, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 24.75 million tons in warehouses and 2.24 million tons in factories, with the former decreasing by 3.06% week - on - week [65]. - **Spot Inventory**: On May 16, 2025, the total inventory of five major ports was 219.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.01% [71]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - In the short - term, the pulp market will oscillate, stabilize, and repair upwards due to the release of macro - sentiment. However, considering the high inventory and weak demand in the downstream paper market, the upward movement is limited [74].