Core Insights - Shanghai's real estate market is experiencing a supply peak following the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with 8 new projects releasing a total of 874 units across various popular districts [1][4]. Group 1: High-End Market - Two major projects from China Resources are performing exceptionally well, with the Bund Ruifu in Hongkou releasing 146 units at an average price of 148,300 CNY per square meter, showing a slight increase from the previous phase [3]. - The second phase of Feiyun Yuefu in Pudong focuses on larger units, offering 32 units of approximately 170 square meters at an average price of 113,670 CNY per square meter, marking an increase of nearly 10,000 CNY per square meter, or 8.8% [3]. Group 2: Mid-Range Market - The mid-range improvement sector is showing a mild upward trend, with Minhang's Xiangyu Tianyu launching 66 units at an average price of 70,300 CNY per square meter, a slight increase of 400 CNY per square meter or about 0.57% from the initial launch [3]. - In contrast, the Zhonghuan Zhidi Center in Putuo is one of the few projects with a slight price drop, offering 86 units at an average price of 67,477 CNY per square meter, providing more flexible options for budget-conscious buyers [3]. Group 3: Low-Density Products - The current supply features a notable presence of low-density products, with three projects introducing such units, including Poly Xijiao and Huxu Ling Villa, which launched 73 units at an average price of 64,394 CNY per square meter [4]. - In the Jiading district, Times City continues to release 58 units, covering both apartments and low-density products at an average price of 56,623 CNY per square meter, while Zhaoshang Linyu Huatan offers 89 units at an average price of 55,776 CNY per square meter [4]. Group 4: Market Trends - The Shanghai new housing market is forming a clear pattern where high-end improvements lead growth, with the new projects expected to sustain the sales momentum observed during the National Day holiday [4]. - According to data from the China Index Academy, September saw new residential sales in Shanghai reach 970,000 square meters, a month-on-month increase of 23% and a year-on-year increase of 16% [4].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai's new real estate policy, implemented on August 25, aims to address structural market issues by allowing eligible families outside the outer ring to purchase homes without restrictions and increasing the public housing fund loan limits, which has quickly attracted market attention [1][2]. Group 1: Market Response - The first week after the policy's implementation saw a significant increase in market activity, with new home sales doubling compared to the previous week, and some projects achieving "sold out" status on the first day [1][2]. - The policy has led to a surge in inquiries and viewings in the second-hand housing market, indicating a recovery in market confidence [5][6]. - The new policy has effectively reduced home purchasing costs, stimulating demand in the outer ring new housing market [1][3]. Group 2: Sales Performance - The Jinmao Tangqian project in Baoshan district launched 160 units at an average price of 53,900 yuan per square meter, achieving a subscription rate of 162.5% on the opening day [2]. - The Poly Haishangyin project also reported strong performance, with a subscription rate of 170% for 168 units, indicating robust demand in the outer ring area [2][3]. - Sales figures from the previous week showed a 35.25% increase in new residential area transactions, with significant contributions from the outer districts [7]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts expect the positive effects of the new policy to continue, especially with the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaching [1][8]. - The new policy is anticipated to bring over a 20% increase in customer volume for large residential projects, enhancing sales momentum [7][8]. - Despite the positive outlook, there remains a cautionary note regarding the varying performance across different projects, with some experiencing lower demand [9].

Group 1: Sales Performance of Real Estate Companies - The top 10 real estate companies in China achieved a total sales amount of 705.3 billion yuan from January to August 2025, representing an 8% year-on-year increase [8] - The sales amounts for the top 100 real estate companies reached 28.2 billion yuan, with a significant decline in the threshold values for the top 30 and 50 companies, which decreased by 10% and 18% respectively [8] Group 2: Policy Changes and Market Impact - Beijing and Shanghai have optimized their housing purchase restrictions in non-core areas, but these changes have not significantly impacted the real estate market [10][11] - The adjustments in purchase policies allowed for increased buying capacity for eligible families in non-core areas, yet the immediate sales results did not show a notable increase [14][15] Group 3: Land Supply and Market Dynamics - The focus of real estate policy has shifted from "incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement," with a trend towards re-supplying previously unsold or stored land through regulatory adjustments [16] - In August, significant land transactions occurred in Shenzhen and Ningbo, with a notable land deal in Shenzhen reaching a total price of 8.64 billion yuan, setting a record for the year [17][18]