Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The domestic baby products market in China is expected to grow from 121.8 billion CNY in 2020 to 144.1 billion CNY in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.3%. The durable goods segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.2%, outpacing the consumer goods segment [3][58]. - The company has successfully transitioned from an ODM model to a global brand, with approximately 80% of its revenue coming from overseas markets, particularly Europe and North America [3][16]. - The company is expected to achieve a record net profit of 356 million HKD in 2024, with a forecasted recovery in profitability in 2026 as external disturbances diminish [4][37]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Goodbaby International Holdings Limited is a leading global parenting products company, established in 1989, focusing on design, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of various child-related products [16][17]. - The company has a comprehensive global presence with over 6,000 employees and operates under three strategic brands: Cybex, gb, and Evenflo [16][17]. Financial Overview - The company has seen fluctuations in net profit, with a significant drop during 2021-2022 due to pandemic-related supply chain disruptions. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2024, with net profit reaching a historical high [4][37]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.50 billion HKD, 3.44 billion HKD, and 3.85 billion HKD, with growth rates of -58%, +129%, and +12% respectively [5][121]. Industry Analysis - The Chinese baby products market is characterized by category and tier differentiation, with a stable growth outlook for the overseas market, particularly in Europe and North America [3][58]. - The report highlights a structural growth opportunity in the baby durable goods sector, with a projected CAGR of 8.4% from 2024 to 2029 [58]. - The competitive landscape in the baby products industry is intensifying, with new brands emerging and existing brands facing pressure due to changing consumer preferences and sales channels [74][76]. Profitability Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from business adjustments, with net profit projected to recover in 2026 as external pressures ease and operational optimizations take effect [4][37]. - Cybex is highlighted as a strong growth driver, with a CAGR of 19.2% from 2014 to 2024, while Evenflo faces challenges due to tariff impacts [91][106].

Company Research: 汇通达 (9878) - 汇通达 is a leading e-commerce platform in China's lower-tier markets, with a current stock price of HKD 15.5 and a target price of HKD 23.38, indicating a potential upside of 50.8%[2][10] - The company has a market capitalization of HKD 87.8 billion and has issued 563 million shares, with a 52-week high of HKD 22 and a low of HKD 10[5][7] - Revenue from AI and SaaS services exceeded HKD 65 million in the first half of 2024, reflecting a strategic shift towards digitalization[8] - The company aims to acquire a 25% stake in 金通灵 for approximately HKD 1.4 per share, totaling around HKD 1 billion, to enhance its business structure[8] Company Research: 好孩子 (1086) - 好孩子 is a global leader in baby durable goods, with a current stock price of HKD 1.23 and a target price of HKD 1.85, representing a potential upside of 50.6%[2][22] - The company reported a revenue of HKD 8.77 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, with a net profit growth of 74.9% to HKD 360 million[17][21] - Cybex, a key brand under 好孩子, generated HKD 4.4 billion in revenue, accounting for 51% of total revenue, with a gross margin exceeding 50%[18] - The company has resumed dividend payments, declaring a dividend of HKD 0.07 per share, equivalent to a payout ratio of 33.3%[21]

Core Viewpoint - Goodbaby (01086) is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 1.85, driven by its core asset Cybex, which is a major profit source and growth driver for the group [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Goodbaby is a global leader in the baby products industry, known for its safety, innovation, and high quality, with a diverse product matrix covering strollers, car seats, furniture, carriers, and apparel [1] - The company owns strategic brands such as Cybex, Evenflo, and gb, catering to various market segments and price points [1] Group 2: Cybex Performance - In 2024, Cybex achieved record revenue of HKD 4.4 billion, accounting for 51% of total revenue, with a gross margin exceeding 50% [1] - Cybex continues to increase its global market share, holding approximately 30% in Europe, while expanding into Japan and other potential markets [1] Group 3: gb Brand Transformation - The gb brand, a domestic leader, has faced challenges but is showing signs of recovery, with positive growth in offline channels and improved online performance expected by mid-2025 [2] - The brand's gross margin has improved due to optimized channel management and pricing strategies [2] Group 4: Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - In 2024, Goodbaby's revenue grew by 10.6% to HKD 8.77 billion, driven by growth in Europe and Cybex [3] - Operating profit and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 35.7% and 74.9%, respectively, benefiting from improved gross margins [3] - The company has resumed dividend payments, declaring HKD 0.07 per share, representing a payout ratio of 33.3% [3]

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai has issued a "Buy" rating for Goodbaby (01086) with a target price of HKD 1.85, highlighting the company's competitive advantages and future development potential [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Goodbaby is a global leader in the baby products industry, known for its safety, innovation, and high quality, with a diverse product matrix that includes strollers, car seats, baby furniture, carriers, and clothing [2] - The company owns strategic brands such as Cybex, Evenflo, and gb, covering all price ranges and age groups to meet various market demands [2] Group 2: Cybex Performance - Cybex, recognized as a high-end brand, generated a record revenue of HKD 4.4 billion in 2024, accounting for 51% of total revenue, with a gross margin exceeding 50% [3] - The brand continues to increase its global market share, holding approximately 30% in Europe, while also expanding into markets like Japan, the Middle East, North America, and China [3] Group 3: gb Brand Transformation - The gb brand, a domestic leader in the Chinese market, has faced a decline due to various internal and external factors, but is showing signs of recovery with positive growth in offline channels and improved online performance [4] - The gross margin has significantly improved due to the optimization of channel strategies, and the Chinese market is expected to gradually turn from loss to profit [4] Group 4: Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - In 2024, Goodbaby's revenue increased by 10.6% to HKD 8.77 billion, driven by growth in Europe and the Cybex brand [5] - Operating profit and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 35.7% and 74.9% to HKD 500 million and HKD 360 million, respectively, benefiting from improved gross margins [5] - The company has resumed dividend payments, declaring a dividend of HKD 0.07 per share, equivalent to a payout ratio of 33.3%, as a means to return value to shareholders [5]