证券研究报告·公司深度研究·消费电子 绿联科技（301606） 品牌出海强势推进，NAS 新品打开成长空间 2025 年 08 月 24 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,803 | 6,170 | 8,362 | 10,682 | 12,856 | | 同比（%） | 25.09 | 28.46 | 35.54 | 27.74 | 20.35 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 387.52 | 462.28 | 637.62 | 835.80 | 1,038.22 | | 同比（%） | 18.35 | 19.29 | 37.93 | 31.08 | 24.22 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.93 | 1.11 | 1.54 | 2.01 | 2.50 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 72.69 | 60.93 | 44.18 | 33.70 | 27.13 | [Ta ...

Core Insights - Ugreen Technology is a leading cross-border digital accessories company, with significant growth potential driven by NAS products and overseas expansion [1][2] - The company's overseas business has been growing rapidly, with a projected 46% increase in overseas revenue for 2024, accounting for 57% of total revenue [1][2] - Ugreen retains its own brand "Ugreen" in overseas markets, which enhances brand recognition and contributes to higher profit margins [2] Product Segmentation - Charging products are a key growth driver, with projected revenue of 2.35 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 51% year-on-year increase and accounting for 38% of total revenue [3] - Transmission, audio, storage, and mobile peripheral products are foundational, collectively contributing to 62% of revenue with growth rates between 12% and 21% [3] Market Opportunities - The NAS market is expected to see significant demand, with a projected global market size of $6.1 billion in 2024 and an annual growth rate of 12.1% from 2025 to 2030 [2] - Ugreen aims to capture market share in the NAS segment by offering cost-effective and user-friendly products, expanding into overseas markets for higher profit margins [2] Financial Projections - Ugreen's net profit is expected to grow to 640 million yuan, 840 million yuan, and 1.04 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 31%, and 24% respectively [3]

Group 1: Brand Positioning and Mission - The company positions "UGREEN" as its core brand, aiming to become a globally influential brand in the tech consumer electronics sector [1] - The mission focuses on creating value for users, enhancing employee happiness, and contributing to social development [1] - The vision is to build a valuable and warm global brand through continuous optimization and effective organizational structure [1] Group 2: Revenue Growth by Product Category - In 2024, the charging category achieved a revenue growth of 50.87% year-on-year [2] - Other categories showed the following growth rates: transmission at 21.30%, audio-video at 11.64%, storage at 19.29%, and mobile peripherals at 16.21% [2] - In Q1 2025, both charging and storage categories continued to show strong growth [2] Group 3: Product Features and System - The NAS products utilize the self-developed ugos pro operating system, which is consistent for both domestic and international versions [2] - The system includes an application center for users to download applications tailored to their needs, with localized differences for various countries [2] - The ugos pro system is designed to provide a user-friendly experience, aligning with personal and family user habits, and offers fast and smooth data transmission [2] Group 4: Disclosure of Major Information - The investor communication activity did not involve the disclosure of any major information [2]

Market Insights - The global consumer NAS market is projected to reach $6.1 billion in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 12.1% from 2025 to 2030, indicating a robust growth trajectory in data storage management and AI deployment applications [1][2]. Overseas Expansion Strategy - The company is enhancing its online marketing strategy by leveraging established third-party platforms and focusing on emerging social media platforms. It aims to deepen its presence in mature markets like North America, Europe, and Japan, while also targeting emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East through localized service subsidiaries [2][3]. User Demographics - NAS product users include: - **Personal Users**: Tech enthusiasts, freelancers, and creative professionals who prioritize convenience, data security, and smart management for home entertainment and data backup. - **Enterprise Users**: Small to medium-sized businesses focusing on large storage capacity, reliability, and data security compliance. - **Tech Enthusiasts**: IT professionals and hobbyists seeking high performance and customization for DIY projects and technical research [3][4]. R&D Investment and Team - In 2024, the company's R&D investment reached ¥304.12 million, marking a 40.87% increase year-on-year. The R&D team comprises 819 members, with a total of 1,628 patents, including 432 newly authorized patents in 2024. The company is intensifying R&D efforts in NAS private cloud storage, audio technology, and charging solutions to meet evolving market demands [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ugreen Technology (301606), reported significant growth in its first quarter of 2025, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit, driven by strong demand in its core product categories and strategic expansion in overseas markets [13]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's main revenue reached 1.824 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.99% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 150 million yuan, up 47.18% year-on-year - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 143 million yuan, reflecting a 44.5% increase year-on-year - The gross profit margin stood at 38.01% [13] Product and Market Expansion - The company has seen rapid growth in its NS and mobile power businesses, particularly due to increased shipments in December of the previous year, leading to higher cash flow for inventory procurement [2] - Ugreen has expanded its product offerings to include new energy-related products such as car chargers and air pumps, which are expected to enhance overseas sales [3] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in the Americas and Europe, while also exploring opportunities in emerging markets [4] Cost Management and Pricing Strategy - Shipping costs, which account for approximately 2% of the company's main business costs, have not significantly impacted profitability despite recent increases [5] - The company maintains a diversified pricing strategy to manage the impact of tariffs, particularly in the U.S. market, where it plans to adjust prices to maintain profit margins [7][9] Talent Acquisition and Retention - Ugreen employs a dual strategy of internal development and external recruitment to enhance its talent pool, focusing on attracting individuals with international experience and industry expertise [12] Future Outlook - The charging product category is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with revenue in this segment reaching 2.349 billion yuan in 2024, a 50.87% increase year-on-year, accounting for 38.08% of total revenue [11] - The company aims to strengthen its product innovation and cost structure optimization to maintain competitiveness in overseas markets [8]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 6.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.46% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 462 million, up 19.29% year-on-year [1] - R&D investment reached CNY 304 million, a growth of 40.87% compared to the previous year [1] - The revenue growth rate exceeded the net profit growth rate primarily due to an additional CNY 21.34 million in share-based payment expenses [1] Revenue Breakdown - Charging products saw a revenue increase of 50.87% [2] - Transmission products grew by 21.30%, audio-video products by 11.64%, storage products by 19.29%, and mobile peripherals by 16.21% [2] - Domestic revenue accounted for 42.53% of total revenue, growing by 10.11%, while overseas revenue made up 57.47%, increasing by 46.46% [2] Geographic Performance - The Asia (excluding mainland China) region contributed 20.68% of total revenue, with a growth of 50.07% [2] - Europe contributed 19.16% of revenue, up 45.80%, and the Americas contributed 15.7%, growing by 39.92% [2] - Other regions contributed 1.93% of revenue, with a significant increase of 75.93% [2] Sales Channels - Online sales represented approximately 75% of total revenue, primarily through platforms like Amazon, JD.com, and Tmall [2] - Offline sales accounted for about 25% of total revenue [2] Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 1.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41.99% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was CNY 150 million, up 47.18% year-on-year [2] Inventory and Supply Chain - Inventory increased due to rapid growth in NAS and mobile power businesses, necessitating early procurement payments [4] - The company is expanding its product offerings in the new energy sector, including car-mounted charging pumps and lithium iron phosphate batteries [4] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its market penetration in emerging markets, particularly in Asia (non-mainland) and Europe [6] - Despite rising shipping costs, the impact on business and profitability has been minimal, as shipping costs account for about 2% of the main business costs [6] Profitability - In 2024, the gross margin for domestic business was 28.30%, while for overseas business it was 44.11% [8] - The company is actively working on product innovation and cost optimization to maintain competitiveness in overseas markets [8] Talent Management - The company employs a dual strategy of internal development and external recruitment to attract and retain talent [9] - A competitive compensation system is in place to incentivize and retain skilled employees [9]