Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 25.55 USD / 210.60 HKD and a fair value of 30.97 USD / 242.11 HKD [5][22]. Core Insights - The company has experienced accelerated growth in Daily Active Users (DAU), reaching 113 million in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10%. This growth is attributed to a strong content strategy and improved advertising performance, which exceeded market expectations [8][9]. - The report forecasts that the company's total revenue will reach 33.32 billion RMB in 2026, with a growth rate of 9.8%, and 36.70 billion RMB in 2027, with a growth rate of 10.1% [4][19]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be 3.07 billion RMB in 2026 and 4.13 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4][19]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 are 33.32 billion RMB and 36.70 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 9.8% and 10.1% [4][19]. - The EBITDA is expected to grow from 1.83 billion RMB in 2024 to 5.21 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a significant increase in operational efficiency [4]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profit margins, with Non-GAAP net profit margins expected to reach 9% in 2026 and 11% in 2027 [21]. Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue is projected to grow significantly, reaching 12.48 billion RMB in 2026 and 15.06 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 24% and 21%, respectively [18][19]. - Live streaming and value-added services revenue are expected to grow at a slower pace, reaching 12.42 billion RMB in 2026 and 12.90 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 4% for both years [18]. - Game revenue is forecasted to stabilize, with total revenue expected to reach 6.40 billion RMB in 2026 and 6.67 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a cautious outlook due to product cycle changes [18]. Valuation Metrics - The report suggests a valuation of 29x PE for 2026, leading to a fair value estimate of 30.97 USD per ADS [22]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong operating leverage, with gross margins projected to improve to 38% in 2026 and 39% in 2027 [21].

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2026 年 3 月 3 日 星期二 【公司评论】 哔哩哔哩（BILI/9626）2025 年业绩前瞻 2025 年第四季度及全年财务一致预期 根据 Visible Alpha 的一致预期，第四季度收入为 81.9 亿元，同比增长 5.8%；全 年收入为 302.1 亿元，同比增长 12.6%。按收入细分，移动游戏四季度预期为 15.3 亿人民币，同比下降 14.7%；全年预期为 63.9 亿人民币，同比上升 13.8%。直播 及增值服务四季度预期同比上升 5.4%，至 32.5 亿元人民币；全年预期同比上升 8.4%，至 119.2 亿元。四季度预计广告收入 29.5 亿元人民币，同比增长 23.4%； 全年录得 99.6 亿元，同比增长 21.6%。IP 衍生品及其他收入四季度预期为 4.6 亿 人民币，同比下降 1.7%；全年预期为 19.4 亿人民币，同比下降 4.4%。 利润端，体现核心业务的 Non-GAAP 归母净利润第四季度录得 8.2 亿元人民币， 同比增长 80.3%；全年 25.1 亿元人民币，相比 2 ...