证券研究报告 港股通 2025 年 10 月 14 日│中国香港 互联网 哔哩哔哩-W (9626 HK) 社区生态稳健，商业化成熟向前 游戏：老游戏长线运营，品类年轻化持续推进 游戏业务凭借对年轻用户需求的深刻理解，以及与社区生态的天然协同，实 现强势复苏。游戏业务 24 年实现收入 56 亿元，同比增长 40%，其中独代& 自研收入 44.3 亿元，同比大增 74%，主要得益于新游戏《三国：谋定天下》 发布。平台战略上聚焦长线运营与年轻化品类，一方面通过精细化运营让 《FGO》《碧蓝航线》等老产品持续贡献稳定流水；另一方面，自研与独 代并行的策略成效显著，《三国：谋定天下》作为公司首款 SLG 游戏，凭 借创新玩法与社区营销成功破圈，年底上线《三国：百将牌》有望延续品类 年轻化的成功经验，带来收入和利润弹性。 我们与市场观点不同之处 市场关注焦点集中在公司的估值体系与成长确定性，但是我们认为平台价值 仍然没有完全被挖掘，一方面自身社区壁垒优势突出，年轻用户占比高，活 跃用户持续增长，垂直平台壁垒深厚。另一方面市场普遍认为公司广告效率 较低，但事实上经过 3 年来的内部建设，我们预计在生成式 AI 辅助的推 ...

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Market Overview - The total revenue from in-app purchases (IAP) in the Japanese mobile gaming market is projected to be $11 billion (approximately 78.2 billion RMB) from August 2024 to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.2% [1] - Despite a slight market contraction and a 2.5% decrease in downloads, the market remains stable due to a high average revenue per user (ARPU) and effective monetization strategies, maintaining annual revenue above 1.6 trillion yen (approximately 77.2 billion RMB) since 2021 [1] Category Performance - RPG games continue to dominate the Japanese mobile gaming market, contributing 37.4% of total revenue, with titles like "Uma Musume," "Monster Strike," and "FGO" leading the revenue charts [3] - Strategy games rank second with a 21.8% revenue contribution, driven by 4X strategy games like "Last War: Survival" and "Whiteout Survival," which saw a 35% revenue increase, and the card battle game "Pokémon TCG Pocket," which achieved a 305% revenue surge [5] - Casual puzzle games are the primary drivers of download volume, accounting for 33.2% of total downloads, with games like "Car Jam" and "Screw Sort 3D" experiencing over 70% year-on-year growth in downloads [5] IP Importance - Local IPs play a crucial role in the Japanese gaming market, with the "Pokémon" IP achieving a 32% year-on-year revenue increase due to the success of "Pokémon TCG Pocket" [10] - The "Gundam" IP, through the new release "SD Gundam GGENERATION ETERNAL," saw over 800% year-on-year growth, highlighting the effective operational strategies that enhance IP value [10][12] Publisher Landscape - Japanese publishers dominate the market, contributing over 52% of total IAP revenue while accounting for only 31% of downloads [14] - Major Japanese companies like Bandai Namco, Sega, and Capcom rank among the top ten global publishers on Steam, indicating strong influence in the PC and console gaming markets [14] - Overseas publishers adopt differentiated strategies to penetrate the Japanese market, focusing on core paying users and launching casual games that appeal to a broader audience [16][18] Advertising Strategies - The gaming sector is a leading category for digital advertising in Japan, with significant ad spending and display volume [19] - LINE is the most prominent channel for game advertising, with successful campaigns often aligning with major in-game events [19][20] - Targeted advertising strategies are employed, such as "Whiteout Survival," which focuses on male users aged 25-34, utilizing platforms like TikTok and Instagram to resonate with younger audiences [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the game "Black Beacon" and the broader implications for the mobile gaming industry, particularly in the context of a declining market and the difficulties of new game development. Group 1: Company Challenges - "Black Beacon" has faced significant delays in version updates, with the latest announcement pushing the end of version 1.2 to October 14, a delay of 50 days [3] - The company has experienced a relocation of its headquarters, which has led to speculation about potential downsizing and operational difficulties [4] - Technical challenges have hindered the development of "Black Beacon," with reports indicating that the dual perspective design and complex gameplay mechanics have extended the development cycle by 30% [8][9] Group 2: Market Conditions - The mobile gaming market has seen a decline, with a reported 8% drop in actual sales revenue in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [12] - The number of new games in the mobile gaming sector has decreased by nearly 40% from peak levels, indicating a stagnation in innovation and new product launches [14] - The market is characterized by a "frozen" state, where older games maintain player engagement through continuous updates, while new games struggle to gain traction due to high technical demands and market pressures [15][17] Group 3: Industry Trends - The article highlights a growing divide between large developers and smaller teams, with larger companies taking on the responsibility for innovation, which may lead to a concentration of resources and potential stagnation in creativity [21] - There is a notable trend of nostalgia among players, with older games like "FGO" and "Arknights" continuing to perform well, while new titles face challenges in capturing player interest [15][17] - The industry is witnessing a restructuring, with opportunities for smaller teams to find niches in the market, despite the overall competitive landscape becoming more intense [21]

Core Insights - Bilibili has stabilized its operational rhythm after three months, reporting a significant turnaround in its Q2 2025 financial results with a revenue increase of 20% year-on-year to 7.34 billion yuan and achieving record net profits of 220 million yuan and adjusted net profits of 560 million yuan [1][5][28] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue composition for Q2 2025 is as follows: value-added services (39%), advertising (33%), gaming (22%), and other IP-related products (6%), with gaming's share slightly decreasing by 3% while advertising increased by 4% [6][9] - Value-added services remain the core revenue driver, with a year-on-year growth of 11% to 2.84 billion yuan, and over 80% of users are annual subscribers or auto-renewal users [9][10] User Engagement and Demographics - Monthly Active Users (MAU) increased by 8% year-on-year to 363 million, with a slight decline of 5 million users quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved operational efficiency and user stickiness [4][33] - The average age of Bilibili users has risen to 26, while new users average 22 years old, reflecting a shift in disposable income and consumption patterns [11][12] Advertising Performance - Advertising revenue grew by 20% year-on-year to 2.45 billion yuan, with performance ads seeing nearly 30% growth [12][15] - The top five advertising sectors in Q2 2025 were gaming, digital appliances, e-commerce, online services, and automotive, with gaming contributing significantly to new revenue streams [15][21] Gaming Business Growth - The gaming segment saw a remarkable 60% year-on-year growth, reaching 1.61 billion yuan, driven by popular titles and significant updates [21][25] - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy of the World" has been pivotal, achieving record daily active users during its anniversary and is expected to perform well in upcoming markets [26][27] Community and Content Consumption - Daily Active Users (DAU) reached a historical high of 109 million, with a 7% year-on-year increase, and the average daily usage time was 105 minutes, reflecting strong community engagement [33][37] - The platform has evolved from a niche community to a broader content platform, with significant growth in user-generated content across various categories [38] Cost and Profitability - Bilibili's gross profit increased by 46% year-on-year, with gross margin rising from 29.9% to 36.5% [28] - Operating costs grew by 9% to 4.66 billion yuan, with revenue-sharing costs increasing by 19% to 2.97 billion yuan, aligning with revenue growth [39] Future Outlook - Bilibili plans to enhance its advertising capabilities through AI technology, aiming to improve user value and advertising efficiency [18][43] - The company is confident in its long-term gaming strategy, with multiple titles in the pipeline and a commitment to maintaining user engagement over extended periods [30][31]

Group 1: JD Logistics - The company is expected to meet its Q2 performance expectations, with revenue continuing to show double-digit growth and profit increasing in the single digits year-on-year [1] - JD Logistics will provide full-time delivery services for the group's food delivery segment, settling at cost price, which will have limited short-term profit impact but aims for long-term synergy [1] - The target price is set at HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 40.4% from the closing price of HKD 13.18, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Bilibili - The focus is on enhancing advertising commercialization efficiency and long-term operation of core game IPs [2] - The company aims to strengthen its infrastructure capabilities, leveraging AI to reconstruct recommendation algorithms and improve advertising efficiency across multiple screens and scenarios [2] - The gaming segment is concentrating on long-term operations of core IPs, with new game launches expected to target niche markets and younger demographics [2] Group 3: Battery Industry - In the first half of 2025, China's power battery production and sales were robust, with a total installed capacity of 299.6 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.3% [4] - Exports of batteries showed a significant year-on-year increase of 56.8%, totaling 127.3 GWh, which accounted for 19.3% of total sales [4] - The overseas market for Chinese battery companies is expanding, with a market share of 43% among the top ten companies, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year [5] Group 4: Economic Data - Upcoming economic data releases include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, with expectations of a month-on-month increase of 0.10% and a year-on-year increase of 2.40% [6] - The Industrial Producer Price Index for June is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 0.10% [6] - Retail sales for June are anticipated to decline by 0.90% month-on-month [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of $26, representing a potential upside of 21.2% from the current price of $21.46 [6][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes Bilibili's focus on enhancing advertising commercialization efficiency and long-term operation of core game IPs. The company aims to expand its advertising ceiling while exploring diversified monetization models primarily targeting C-end users, supplemented by B-end strategies [1]. - Bilibili's advertising strategy involves deepening the value of mid-to-long video content, with a significant increase in advertising revenue from the content consumption and consumer goods sectors, showing a year-on-year growth of 90% and 30% respectively in the first half of the year [1]. - In gaming, Bilibili is concentrating on the long-term operation of core IPs, with successful titles like "Three Kingdoms" achieving record daily active users and maintaining strong revenue contributions from various platforms [1]. Summary by Sections Advertising Strategy - Bilibili is implementing a dual strategy in advertising, focusing on both content quality and market share expansion. The company is leveraging AI to enhance its advertising capabilities, including recommendation systems and intelligent ad placements [1]. - The report highlights that the advertising revenue from the gaming sector is expected to grow as Bilibili assists leading game companies in user retention and marketing budget allocation [1]. Gaming Operations - The report outlines Bilibili's successful game titles, including "Three Kingdoms," which has consistently ranked in the top three of the iOS bestseller list. The company plans to launch new versions and expand its gaming ecosystem [1]. - Upcoming game releases include a new PVE game and expansions for existing titles, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [1]. Financial Projections - The report projects an adjusted net profit of 2.3 billion RMB for 2025, with expectations for improved gross margins and profit release driven by scale effects and revenue structure optimization [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the "second dimension emperor," specifically the game "Million Arthur," which was once a pioneer in the mobile game market but has struggled to maintain relevance in the face of competition and internal challenges [1][2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Initial Success - "Million Arthur" was initially successful, generating 300 million in revenue within two weeks of its launch, significantly impacting the domestic gaming market and stock prices [2][3]. - The game experienced rapid decline, with the Japanese version shutting down a year after the Chinese version launched, which eventually also ceased operations in 2016 [3][5]. Group 2: Series of Releases and Decline - The IP saw the release of three additional titles, but none managed to sustain the same level of success, with the latest iterations failing to last even a year [5][7]. - By 2020, the IP was considered to have run its course, with all titles under the "Million Arthur" brand having been discontinued [5][8]. Group 3: Recent Developments and Challenges - A new title, "Million Arthur: Ring," was announced and received a license for the Chinese market, generating initial excitement among fans [8][10]. - However, the game faced significant challenges, including a lack of content updates and a rapid decline in player engagement, leading to its announcement of shutdown in August 2025 [10][11]. Group 4: Internal Issues and Future Uncertainty - The game's poor performance may be linked to recent anti-corruption measures taken by Perfect World, which affected the development team responsible for "Million Arthur: Ring" [13][15]. - The future of the IP remains uncertain, with indications that it may be deprioritized as the company focuses on more successful projects [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent financial performance of Bilibili (B站) and highlights the challenges and opportunities the company faces in a competitive market, particularly focusing on user growth, revenue streams, and the impact of content strategy on its business model [3][6][28]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Bilibili reported revenue of 7.003 billion yuan, a decrease of 730 million yuan from the previous quarter, with a net loss of 10.7 million yuan. Adjusted net profit was 362 million yuan, down nearly 100 million yuan from the previous quarter [3][6]. - The company's revenue sources in Q1 2025 were primarily from value-added services (40%), advertising (29%), gaming (25%), and IP derivatives (6%), with a slight increase in gaming revenue share and a decrease in advertising [8][10]. User Growth and Engagement - Bilibili's monthly active users (MAU) increased by 28 million in Q1 2025, attributed to the impact of the Spring Festival Gala broadcast and management's focus on user growth [6][23]. - The platform's daily active users (DAU) reached 106.7 million, with a DAU/MAU ratio maintaining around 30%, indicating high user engagement [23]. Gaming Business - Gaming revenue in Q1 2025 grew by 76% year-on-year, reaching 1.73 billion yuan, driven by the success of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" (三国：谋定天下) [10][12]. - The game has shown consistent growth, with a focus on long-term user engagement and retention strategies, including seasonal updates and new content [14][12]. Value-Added Services - Revenue from value-added services, including live streaming and premium memberships, grew by 11% year-on-year to 2.81 billion yuan, with premium membership subscriptions increasing by 800,000 to 23.5 million [16][17]. - The younger generation's consumption habits are reshaping the platform's membership economy, although Bilibili lacks certain advertising benefits that competitors offer [17][19]. Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue in Q1 2025 increased by 20% year-on-year to 2 billion yuan, although this growth rate is considered modest compared to other business segments [19][20]. - The management emphasized the importance of high-quality content and targeted advertising strategies to enhance revenue potential [20][21]. Content Strategy and AI Integration - Bilibili is leveraging AI capabilities to enhance advertising effectiveness and content generation, with a significant portion of advertising content now generated through AI [25][27]. - The platform is positioned as a key player in the Chinese video content market, with a focus on high-quality content that appeals to younger audiences [26][27]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The article suggests that Bilibili's potential should not be underestimated, as it serves as a hub for young users and offers unique content opportunities that can drive future growth [28].

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili (B站) is experiencing a mixed financial performance in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in user engagement but a decline in profitability, raising questions about its long-term growth strategy and reliance on gaming revenue [2][10][24]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Bilibili reported revenue of 7.003 billion yuan, a decrease of 730 million yuan from the previous quarter, and a net loss of 10.7 million yuan, with adjusted net profit dropping to 362 million yuan, down nearly 100 million yuan from the previous quarter [2][24]. - The gaming segment saw a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 76%, reaching 1.73 billion yuan, primarily driven by the performance of the game "三国：谋定天下" (Three Kingdoms: Strategy of the World) [10][11]. - Gross profit margin for Q1 2025 surged to 58%, with a gross margin of 36.3%, an increase of 8 percentage points from the same period last year [12][24]. User Engagement - Bilibili's monthly active users (MAU) increased by 28 million to 368 million, marking a historical high, while daily active users (DAU) rose by 3.7 million to 106.7 million [35][39]. - The platform's average daily usage time increased by 9% to 108 minutes, also a record high, attributed to the successful live streaming of the Spring Festival Gala [40][39]. Business Segments - The revenue contributions from Bilibili's main business segments in Q1 2025 were as follows: value-added services (40%), advertising (29%), gaming (25%), and IP derivatives and others (6%) [7]. - Value-added services revenue grew by 11% year-on-year to 2.81 billion yuan, with the number of premium members increasing by 800,000 to 23.5 million [24][25]. - Advertising revenue increased by 20% year-on-year to 2 billion yuan, although this growth rate was considered underwhelming compared to other segments [26][29]. Strategic Insights - Management appears to be returning to a "burning money for growth" strategy, as evidenced by the increase in user numbers despite the financial losses [5][6]. - The company is focusing on long-term game operations, with plans for "三谋" to have a minimum operational lifespan of five years, emphasizing user retention and engagement [17][20]. - Bilibili is leveraging its unique content ecosystem, particularly in the areas of animation, gaming, and knowledge, to enhance its competitive edge in the global market [42][43].