Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Securities projects Bilibili (09626) to achieve total revenue of 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion yuan in 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of +12%, +9%, and +8% respectively, and adjusted net profit of 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.32 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of +44% and +33% in 2026 and 2027. The average dynamic PE for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 26x. The company is in a commercialization acceleration phase, and AI is expected to enhance content creation efficiency and diversify commercialization methods, significantly impacting its advertising and gaming businesses, leading to an "overweight" rating for the first coverage [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Bilibili is a leading video community in China, driven by a unique operational model and has become a significant player in the IP derivative market. By the end of 2024, the company will operate nearly 200 self-owned and authorized IPs, including national creations and comics. Since launching its official derivative brand in 2020, Bilibili has gradually built a core development model focused on "IP incubation and content empowerment," leveraging its high-engagement community and content ecosystem, and expanding into niche brands like figurines and blind boxes to enhance IP commercial value and cross-industry engagement [1]. Group 2: Business Highlights - AI: The "Peanut AI" tool is set to enhance content production and optimize ad placements, boosting eCPM. The AIGC tool will officially launch in Q4 2025, aimed at improving content quality and increasing traffic (DAU and per capita VV). It lowers the barrier for non-professionals to participate in content creation and enriches content diversity and innovation. Additionally, the InsightAgent system will integrate with various platforms to provide tailored AI solutions for different marketing scenarios [2]. - Advertising: Bilibili's advertising strategy includes three main approaches: single product promotions via Huohuo, oCPX effect ads, and brand advertising. Revenue from advertising is projected to grow by 27.7% and 20% in 2024 and the first half of 2025, reaching 8.2 billion and 4.4 billion yuan respectively. In Q3 2025, Bilibili's DAU reached 117 million, a 9% increase, with a DAU to MAU ratio of 31% and an average daily usage time of 112 minutes, up 6%. The company maintains a conservative approach to advertising commercialization, with an ad load rate of only 5-8%, indicating significant room for growth [3]. - Gaming: The gaming segment benefits from long-term operations of established games and new titles contributing incremental revenue. In H1 2025, gaming revenue reached 3.3 billion yuan, a 68% increase, driven by the success of "Three Kingdoms: Strategizing the World" and other enduring titles like "FGO" and "Azur Lane." The new game "Escape from Duckkov" has received positive feedback and is expected to contribute additional revenue [3].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Securities projects Bilibili (09626) to achieve total revenue of 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of +12%, +9%, and +8% respectively, with adjusted net profit expected to be 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.32 billion yuan, showing significant growth of +44% and +33% in 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Bilibili is a leading video community in China, driven by a unique operational model and has become a significant player in the IP derivative market, operating nearly 200 self-owned and authorized IPs by the end of 2024 [2] - The company has developed an "IP incubation and content empowerment" model, leveraging its high-engagement community and content ecosystem, and has established a brand for derivative products since 2020 [2] Group 2: Business Highlights - AI marketing is enhancing content production and optimizing ad placements, with the launch of the "Peanut" AIGC tool expected to improve content quality and increase traffic [3] - Bilibili's advertising revenue is projected to grow by 27.7% and 20% in 2024 and the first half of 2025, reaching 8.2 billion and 4.4 billion yuan respectively, with a daily active user (DAU) count of 117 million in Q3 2025, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase [4] - The gaming segment is benefiting from both long-term operations of existing games and new game launches, with gaming revenue reaching 3.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 68% year-on-year increase [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading IP ecosystem platform in China, leveraging content and community operations to drive growth. It has developed nearly 200 IPs and is enhancing its commercial value through a unique product development model [6][11]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 9%, and 8% respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.33 billion yuan, with significant growth in the latter two years [44][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 413.76 million shares, with a market price of HKD 190.80, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately HKD 78.95 billion [1]. - The company has undergone significant development since its inception in 2009, evolving from a community platform to a comprehensive video community with a focus on IP development and commercialization [10][11]. Business Highlights - AI marketing is enhancing content production and optimizing advertising efficiency, with the introduction of the "Peanut AI" tool expected to significantly improve content creation and advertising effectiveness [25][27]. - The advertising business is projected to grow substantially, with revenues expected to increase by 27.7% and 20% in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [29][31]. - The gaming segment is also showing strong performance, with revenues from established games and new releases contributing to overall growth. The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" has been a key driver of revenue [37][34]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see a steady increase in revenue and profitability, with adjusted net profits turning positive by 2025. The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 32.2, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [41][44]. - The financial analysis indicates a significant improvement in gross margins, expected to reach 39.6% by 2027, driven by operational efficiencies and revenue growth [43][20].

Summary of Bilibili's Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call focuses on Bilibili's gaming business, which has evolved through four distinct phases from reliance on agency games to self-developed titles and optimization strategies, culminating in record revenue from "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Gaming Business Evolution - Bilibili's gaming business has transitioned through four phases: 1. **2016-2019**: Rapid revenue growth through agency games like "FGO" and "Azur Lane," with revenue increasing from less than 500 million to 3.5 billion, accounting for over 80% of total revenue by 2019 [3]. 2. **2019-2021**: Shift towards self-development, investing in nearly 20 game companies, but faced challenges with unsuccessful projects [3]. 3. **2022-2023**: Major optimization phase, including leadership changes and strategic adjustments [3]. 4. **2024-Present**: Achieved record revenue of 5.6 billion from "Three Kingdoms: Strategy," a 40% year-on-year increase [2][3]. Future Product Expectations - Upcoming key products include "Three Kingdoms: Card" (testing on October 30) and the successful single-player game "Escape from Yakov," which sold 500,000 copies in four days, with potential sales reaching 1-2 million [2][6][8]. Revenue Projections - "Three Kingdoms: Card" is expected to generate annual revenue between 1-3 billion, with a central estimate of around 2 billion. If successful, Bilibili's gaming revenue could reach 7.3 billion in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year [4][13]. Strategic Changes - Key strategic changes include: 1. Focusing on creative leadership and exclusive agency rather than deep self-development [5]. 2. Expanding game categories to include SLG, card games, and independent titles [5]. 3. Emphasizing small team productions for efficiency [5]. 4. Utilizing platform value for effective marketing through community engagement [5]. Market Positioning - Bilibili aims to differentiate "Three Kingdoms: Card" from competitors like Giant Network by targeting a broader user base with lower user acquisition costs and a focus on younger audiences [12][13]. Financial Outlook - The financial outlook suggests that if "Three Kingdoms: Card" performs well, Bilibili's gaming revenue could significantly boost overall company performance, with potential net profits reaching 3.5 billion to 3.8 billion by 2026 [4][14]. Investment Potential - Based on projections, Bilibili's target market value could reach 123.6 billion to 150 billion RMB, indicating a potential stock price increase of 40% to 78% from current levels [14]. Additional Important Insights - "Escape from Yakov" is designed as a single-player PVE game with a unique top-down perspective, making it more accessible to players who may struggle with traditional first-person gameplay [8][9]. - The game has significant growth potential if it can expand into online and mobile formats, which would require additional resources and support from Bilibili [9]. - The competitive landscape for "Three Kingdoms: Card" is shaped by the existing popularity of "Three Kingdoms Kill," which has a substantial market presence [11][12]. This comprehensive analysis highlights Bilibili's strategic shifts, product expectations, and financial projections, indicating a positive outlook for the company's gaming business and overall market position.

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities initiates coverage on Bilibili's Hong Kong stock with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 316.5, corresponding to a 25E PS of 4.1x, highlighting the company's unique position as a mid-video community platform with a solid ecosystem and robust user retention [1][2]. Group 1: Community and User Engagement - Bilibili has evolved from a niche ACG community to a comprehensive video ecosystem over 15 years, establishing a competitive moat through its unique community atmosphere and closed-loop ecosystem [1]. - The platform primarily attracts a young demographic, with over 80% of users under 35 years old, showcasing high user retention rates, including over 80% for formal members and more than 84% for users with over ten years on the platform [1]. Group 2: Advertising Business - The advertising segment has transitioned from an exploratory phase to systematic and scalable growth, with an expected overall revenue growth of 27.7% in 2024, driven by a 40% increase in performance advertising [1]. - The completion of the advertising infrastructure and the integration of AI technology have significantly enhanced advertising efficiency, with a projected 10% year-on-year increase in eCPM for the first half of 2025 [1]. Group 3: Gaming Business - The gaming segment has shown a strong recovery, with revenues reaching CNY 5.6 billion in 2024, a 40% year-on-year increase, largely due to the successful launch of the new game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy Determination" [2]. - The strategy focuses on long-term operation and youth-oriented game categories, with both self-developed and exclusive agency games contributing to revenue growth [2]. Group 4: Market Perspective and Valuation - The market tends to focus on valuation and growth certainty, but the company’s community advantages and high active user growth remain underappreciated [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are CNY 30.03 billion, CNY 32.72 billion, and CNY 35.09 billion, with adjusted net profits expected to be CNY 2.31 billion, CNY 3.18 billion, and CNY 3.99 billion respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Bilibili (9626 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 316.5, corresponding to a 2025E PS of 4.1x [1][7]. Core Insights - Bilibili has evolved from a niche community to a comprehensive video ecosystem, establishing a strong competitive moat through its unique community atmosphere and high user retention [2][18]. - The advertising business has transitioned into a systematic growth phase, with a projected revenue increase of 27.7% year-on-year in 2024, driven by a 40% growth in performance advertising [3][19]. - The gaming segment has shown robust recovery, with revenues reaching RMB 5.6 billion in 2024, a 40% year-on-year increase, supported by the successful launch of new games [4][22]. - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth, with adjusted net profits projected at RMB 2.31 billion, RMB 3.18 billion, and RMB 3.99 billion for 2025-2027 [6][20]. Summary by Sections Community Ecosystem - Bilibili's community has a high retention rate, with over 80% for formal members and 84% for users registered for over ten years, indicating a deep user-platform bond [2][21]. - The platform's user base is predominantly young, with over 80% of users under 35 years old, showcasing a strong generational engagement [2][21]. Advertising Business - The advertising infrastructure has been fully established, enabling comprehensive coverage across various platforms, including long and short videos, PC, and search [3][19]. - AI technology integration is enhancing advertising efficiency, with a 10% year-on-year increase in eCPM in the first half of 2025 [3][19]. Gaming Business - The gaming revenue for 2024 is expected to reach RMB 5.6 billion, with a 40% year-on-year growth, driven by the successful launch of new titles [4][22]. - The strategy focuses on long-term operations and the introduction of younger game genres, with the upcoming release of "Three Kingdoms: Hundred Generals Card" expected to continue this trend [4][22]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 30.03 billion, RMB 32.72 billion, and RMB 35.09 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to rise significantly [6][20]. - The overall gross margin is anticipated to improve from 17.6% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2024, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin advertising and gaming revenues [20].

Core Insights - The mobile game "Dudu Face Prank," developed by the Korean team Epid GAMES and published by Bilibili outside of Korea, launched internationally on October 9 and has achieved significant early success in various markets [1][2]. Market Overview - As of October 13, "Dudu Face Prank" ranks first on the iOS free charts in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, and second in Japan [3]. - The game accumulated over 320,000 downloads across both platforms within two days of its launch [5]. - Revenue generated in the first two days exceeded 2.16 million, excluding platform fees [6]. Game Features and Design - The game offers a "super-saturated welfare" system, providing players with 130 free draws upon login and a total of 300 draws in the first week, significantly more than typical offerings in the genre [8]. - Unique gameplay features include real-time interactive character customization using Live2D technology, enhancing user engagement through playful interactions [10]. - The game is designed for "casual play," with daily tasks taking only 15-20 minutes to complete, catering to players' fragmented time availability [10]. Marketing Strategy - The marketing campaign began in early September, with increased efforts on the launch day [12]. - Promotional materials focus on the game's core selling points: character interaction, high welfare offerings, and a cute aesthetic [14][20]. - The marketing approach emphasizes low-cost strategies, utilizing smaller influencers and social media platforms to maintain a balanced ROI [26]. Bilibili's Strategic Shift - Bilibili's decision to publish "Dudu Face Prank" reflects a strategic pivot from heavy-duty games to lighter, more casual offerings, addressing the growing demand for low-pressure gaming experiences [28]. - The game fills a gap in Bilibili's portfolio for lightweight games, complementing its existing heavy-duty titles [28]. - The potential for success in the Chinese market is promising, given the game's appeal to Bilibili's large user base and its compatibility with the platform's community-driven content [29].

Market Overview - The total revenue from in-app purchases (IAP) in the Japanese mobile gaming market is projected to be $11 billion (approximately 78.2 billion RMB) from August 2024 to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.2% [1] - Despite a slight market contraction and a 2.5% decrease in downloads, the market remains stable due to a high average revenue per user (ARPU) and effective monetization strategies, maintaining annual revenue above 1.6 trillion yen (approximately 77.2 billion RMB) since 2021 [1] Category Performance - RPG games continue to dominate the Japanese mobile gaming market, contributing 37.4% of total revenue, with titles like "Uma Musume," "Monster Strike," and "FGO" leading the revenue charts [3] - Strategy games rank second with a 21.8% revenue contribution, driven by 4X strategy games like "Last War: Survival" and "Whiteout Survival," which saw a 35% revenue increase, and the card battle game "Pokémon TCG Pocket," which achieved a 305% revenue surge [5] - Casual puzzle games are the primary drivers of download volume, accounting for 33.2% of total downloads, with games like "Car Jam" and "Screw Sort 3D" experiencing over 70% year-on-year growth in downloads [5] IP Importance - Local IPs play a crucial role in the Japanese gaming market, with the "Pokémon" IP achieving a 32% year-on-year revenue increase due to the success of "Pokémon TCG Pocket" [10] - The "Gundam" IP, through the new release "SD Gundam GGENERATION ETERNAL," saw over 800% year-on-year growth, highlighting the effective operational strategies that enhance IP value [10][12] Publisher Landscape - Japanese publishers dominate the market, contributing over 52% of total IAP revenue while accounting for only 31% of downloads [14] - Major Japanese companies like Bandai Namco, Sega, and Capcom rank among the top ten global publishers on Steam, indicating strong influence in the PC and console gaming markets [14] - Overseas publishers adopt differentiated strategies to penetrate the Japanese market, focusing on core paying users and launching casual games that appeal to a broader audience [16][18] Advertising Strategies - The gaming sector is a leading category for digital advertising in Japan, with significant ad spending and display volume [19] - LINE is the most prominent channel for game advertising, with successful campaigns often aligning with major in-game events [19][20] - Targeted advertising strategies are employed, such as "Whiteout Survival," which focuses on male users aged 25-34, utilizing platforms like TikTok and Instagram to resonate with younger audiences [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the game "Black Beacon" and the broader implications for the mobile gaming industry, particularly in the context of a declining market and the difficulties of new game development. Group 1: Company Challenges - "Black Beacon" has faced significant delays in version updates, with the latest announcement pushing the end of version 1.2 to October 14, a delay of 50 days [3] - The company has experienced a relocation of its headquarters, which has led to speculation about potential downsizing and operational difficulties [4] - Technical challenges have hindered the development of "Black Beacon," with reports indicating that the dual perspective design and complex gameplay mechanics have extended the development cycle by 30% [8][9] Group 2: Market Conditions - The mobile gaming market has seen a decline, with a reported 8% drop in actual sales revenue in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [12] - The number of new games in the mobile gaming sector has decreased by nearly 40% from peak levels, indicating a stagnation in innovation and new product launches [14] - The market is characterized by a "frozen" state, where older games maintain player engagement through continuous updates, while new games struggle to gain traction due to high technical demands and market pressures [15][17] Group 3: Industry Trends - The article highlights a growing divide between large developers and smaller teams, with larger companies taking on the responsibility for innovation, which may lead to a concentration of resources and potential stagnation in creativity [21] - There is a notable trend of nostalgia among players, with older games like "FGO" and "Arknights" continuing to perform well, while new titles face challenges in capturing player interest [15][17] - The industry is witnessing a restructuring, with opportunities for smaller teams to find niches in the market, despite the overall competitive landscape becoming more intense [21]

Core Insights - Bilibili has stabilized its operational rhythm after three months, reporting a significant turnaround in its Q2 2025 financial results with a revenue increase of 20% year-on-year to 7.34 billion yuan and achieving record net profits of 220 million yuan and adjusted net profits of 560 million yuan [1][5][28] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue composition for Q2 2025 is as follows: value-added services (39%), advertising (33%), gaming (22%), and other IP-related products (6%), with gaming's share slightly decreasing by 3% while advertising increased by 4% [6][9] - Value-added services remain the core revenue driver, with a year-on-year growth of 11% to 2.84 billion yuan, and over 80% of users are annual subscribers or auto-renewal users [9][10] User Engagement and Demographics - Monthly Active Users (MAU) increased by 8% year-on-year to 363 million, with a slight decline of 5 million users quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved operational efficiency and user stickiness [4][33] - The average age of Bilibili users has risen to 26, while new users average 22 years old, reflecting a shift in disposable income and consumption patterns [11][12] Advertising Performance - Advertising revenue grew by 20% year-on-year to 2.45 billion yuan, with performance ads seeing nearly 30% growth [12][15] - The top five advertising sectors in Q2 2025 were gaming, digital appliances, e-commerce, online services, and automotive, with gaming contributing significantly to new revenue streams [15][21] Gaming Business Growth - The gaming segment saw a remarkable 60% year-on-year growth, reaching 1.61 billion yuan, driven by popular titles and significant updates [21][25] - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy of the World" has been pivotal, achieving record daily active users during its anniversary and is expected to perform well in upcoming markets [26][27] Community and Content Consumption - Daily Active Users (DAU) reached a historical high of 109 million, with a 7% year-on-year increase, and the average daily usage time was 105 minutes, reflecting strong community engagement [33][37] - The platform has evolved from a niche community to a broader content platform, with significant growth in user-generated content across various categories [38] Cost and Profitability - Bilibili's gross profit increased by 46% year-on-year, with gross margin rising from 29.9% to 36.5% [28] - Operating costs grew by 9% to 4.66 billion yuan, with revenue-sharing costs increasing by 19% to 2.97 billion yuan, aligning with revenue growth [39] Future Outlook - Bilibili plans to enhance its advertising capabilities through AI technology, aiming to improve user value and advertising efficiency [18][43] - The company is confident in its long-term gaming strategy, with multiple titles in the pipeline and a commitment to maintaining user engagement over extended periods [30][31]