Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Securities projects Bilibili (09626) to achieve total revenue of 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion yuan in 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of +12%, +9%, and +8% respectively, and adjusted net profit of 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.32 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of +44% and +33% in 2026 and 2027. The average dynamic PE for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 26x. The company is in a commercialization acceleration phase, and AI is expected to enhance content creation efficiency and diversify commercialization methods, significantly impacting its advertising and gaming businesses, leading to an "overweight" rating for the first coverage [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Bilibili is a leading video community in China, driven by a unique operational model and has become a significant player in the IP derivative market. By the end of 2024, the company will operate nearly 200 self-owned and authorized IPs, including national creations and comics. Since launching its official derivative brand in 2020, Bilibili has gradually built a core development model focused on "IP incubation and content empowerment," leveraging its high-engagement community and content ecosystem, and expanding into niche brands like figurines and blind boxes to enhance IP commercial value and cross-industry engagement [1]. Group 2: Business Highlights - AI: The "Peanut AI" tool is set to enhance content production and optimize ad placements, boosting eCPM. The AIGC tool will officially launch in Q4 2025, aimed at improving content quality and increasing traffic (DAU and per capita VV). It lowers the barrier for non-professionals to participate in content creation and enriches content diversity and innovation. Additionally, the InsightAgent system will integrate with various platforms to provide tailored AI solutions for different marketing scenarios [2]. - Advertising: Bilibili's advertising strategy includes three main approaches: single product promotions via Huohuo, oCPX effect ads, and brand advertising. Revenue from advertising is projected to grow by 27.7% and 20% in 2024 and the first half of 2025, reaching 8.2 billion and 4.4 billion yuan respectively. In Q3 2025, Bilibili's DAU reached 117 million, a 9% increase, with a DAU to MAU ratio of 31% and an average daily usage time of 112 minutes, up 6%. The company maintains a conservative approach to advertising commercialization, with an ad load rate of only 5-8%, indicating significant room for growth [3]. - Gaming: The gaming segment benefits from long-term operations of established games and new titles contributing incremental revenue. In H1 2025, gaming revenue reached 3.3 billion yuan, a 68% increase, driven by the success of "Three Kingdoms: Strategizing the World" and other enduring titles like "FGO" and "Azur Lane." The new game "Escape from Duckkov" has received positive feedback and is expected to contribute additional revenue [3].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Securities projects Bilibili (09626) to achieve total revenue of 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of +12%, +9%, and +8% respectively, with adjusted net profit expected to be 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.32 billion yuan, showing significant growth of +44% and +33% in 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Bilibili is a leading video community in China, driven by a unique operational model and has become a significant player in the IP derivative market, operating nearly 200 self-owned and authorized IPs by the end of 2024 [2] - The company has developed an "IP incubation and content empowerment" model, leveraging its high-engagement community and content ecosystem, and has established a brand for derivative products since 2020 [2] Group 2: Business Highlights - AI marketing is enhancing content production and optimizing ad placements, with the launch of the "Peanut" AIGC tool expected to improve content quality and increase traffic [3] - Bilibili's advertising revenue is projected to grow by 27.7% and 20% in 2024 and the first half of 2025, reaching 8.2 billion and 4.4 billion yuan respectively, with a daily active user (DAU) count of 117 million in Q3 2025, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase [4] - The gaming segment is benefiting from both long-term operations of existing games and new game launches, with gaming revenue reaching 3.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 68% year-on-year increase [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading IP ecosystem platform in China, leveraging content and community operations to drive growth. It has developed nearly 200 IPs and is enhancing its commercial value through a unique product development model [6][11]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 9%, and 8% respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.33 billion yuan, with significant growth in the latter two years [44][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 413.76 million shares, with a market price of HKD 190.80, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately HKD 78.95 billion [1]. - The company has undergone significant development since its inception in 2009, evolving from a community platform to a comprehensive video community with a focus on IP development and commercialization [10][11]. Business Highlights - AI marketing is enhancing content production and optimizing advertising efficiency, with the introduction of the "Peanut AI" tool expected to significantly improve content creation and advertising effectiveness [25][27]. - The advertising business is projected to grow substantially, with revenues expected to increase by 27.7% and 20% in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [29][31]. - The gaming segment is also showing strong performance, with revenues from established games and new releases contributing to overall growth. The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" has been a key driver of revenue [37][34]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see a steady increase in revenue and profitability, with adjusted net profits turning positive by 2025. The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 32.2, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [41][44]. - The financial analysis indicates a significant improvement in gross margins, expected to reach 39.6% by 2027, driven by operational efficiencies and revenue growth [43][20].

2025年12月，第二十届中国游戏产业年会在上海徐汇滨江的西岸国际会展中心落下帷幕。这是这场具有行业风向标意义的国家级盛会，首次从海南、广州、 北京等地移师上海，并落户于城市核心地段的滨水文化区。 徐汇西岸 一个看似简单的选址变化，背后是上海游戏产业实力与雄心的集中展现。 数据显示，2024年上海游戏产业营收超过1400亿元，约占全国三分之一。而其中，徐汇一区便贡献了超过700亿元，占据了上海的半壁江山。在仅54平方公 里的区域内，集聚了腾讯、网易、米哈游、莉莉丝、鹰角网络等70余家游戏企业，平均每家企业年营收高达10亿元。 徐汇，何以成为上海乃至全国游戏产业的核心引擎？ 其发展路径，并非单一的政策红利或偶然的企业聚集，而是一场由政府精准引导、市场活力迸发、产业生态自组织协同演进的系统性工程。 这是一曲由政策、空间和生态共同配合、共同奏响的产业最强音。 徐汇区游戏产业服务中心 服务中心构建了涵盖政务、金融、法律、版权、出海、人才、技术、场景的八大服务体系，并编制了《企业生长指南》、《出海服务手册》等实用工具，让 企业"找得到门、问得到人、办得成事"。 最关键的一环，是构建了坚实的知识产权护城河。 精准施策，构 ...

Core Insights - Bilibili (NASDAQ: BILI, HKEX: 9626) reported a total revenue of 7.69 billion RMB for Q3 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit soaring 233% to 790 million RMB [2] - The platform experienced accelerated community growth, achieving record highs in multiple metrics, including daily active users of 117 million, a 9% increase year-on-year, and monthly active users of 376 million, an 8% increase [2] Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue increased by 23% year-on-year to 2.57 billion RMB (361 million USD), driven by improved ad product supply and effectiveness [3] - Revenue contributions from various segments include: value-added services (39%), advertising (33%), games (20%), and IP derivatives and other businesses (8%) [3] Advertising Growth Drivers - Key factors for the increase in advertising revenue include the integration of e-commerce data pathways, enhanced ad efficiency through upgraded algorithms and AI technology, and partnerships with Alibaba and JD.com [4] - The average age of core consumers has reached around 26 years, entering high spending decision-making stages, which has significantly improved ad efficiency [4] - The user base remains strong, with 117 million daily active users and 376 million monthly active users, contributing to better ad reach and effectiveness [4] Gaming Revenue Decline - Mobile game revenue for Q3 2025 was 1.51 billion RMB (212 million USD), a 17% decrease year-on-year, primarily due to high performance in the previous year from the exclusive game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy of the World" [5] - The decline is attributed to the short lifecycle of popular games and Bilibili's limited investment in self-developed games, leading to reliance on external licensed products [5] Game Development Strategy - Bilibili continues to operate long-term strategies for games like "Fate/Grand Order" and "Azur Lane," while "Three Kingdoms: Strategy of the World" remains a key focus for long-term health and player experience [6] - The newly released self-developed game "Escape from Duckkov" has sold over 3 million copies globally within a month, indicating potential for future success [6] Value-Added Services Performance - Value-added services revenue reached 3.02 billion RMB (425 million USD) in Q3 2025, a 7% increase year-on-year, driven by growth in paid memberships and other services [7] - As of Q3 2025, Bilibili had 25.4 million premium members, with approximately 80% being annual or auto-renewal subscribers [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth in advertising revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 23% in Q3 2025, reaching 25.7 billion yuan [8] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 7.86 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 233% [6] - The company's monthly active users (MAU) grew by 8% year-on-year to 376 million, while daily active users (DAU) increased by 9% to 117 million, indicating strong user engagement [6] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 76.9 billion yuan, marking a 5% increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [6] - The gross profit margin improved to 36.7%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company reported a net profit of 4.69 billion yuan, a turnaround from a loss of 0.88 billion yuan in the same period last year [6] Business Segments - Mobile gaming revenue in Q3 2025 was 15.11 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year [7] - The advertising segment's revenue growth was driven by strong performance in sectors such as gaming, e-commerce, and automotive, with AI-related advertising revenue increasing by nearly 90% [8] - Live streaming and value-added services generated 30.23 billion yuan in revenue, a 7% year-on-year increase, with paid user numbers reaching 35 million [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 30.16 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding adjusted net profit of 2.5 billion yuan [11] - The target market capitalization for 2026 is estimated at 109.1 billion yuan, with a target price of 259 yuan per share [11]

Core Insights - Bilibili reported a total revenue of 7.69 billion RMB for Q3 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit soaring by 233% to 790 million RMB [2] - The revenue structure has diversified, with contributions from value-added services, advertising, gaming, and IP derivatives at 39%, 33%, 20%, and 8% respectively [2] - The advertising revenue reached 2.57 billion RMB, growing 23% year-on-year, with significant contributions from luxury goods, beauty, and automotive sectors [2] Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services revenue was 3.02 billion RMB, up 7% year-on-year, with a total of 25.4 million annual members, 80% of whom are annual or auto-renewal subscribers [4] - Gaming revenue for Q3 was 1.51 billion RMB, supported by long-term operational strategies for popular titles [2][4] - AI-related advertising revenue surged nearly 90% year-on-year, reflecting the growing interest in AI content on the platform [2] User Engagement - Daily active users reached 117 million, with monthly active users at 376 million, and average daily usage time increased to 112 minutes, all historical highs [4] - The platform's gaming content viewing time grew by 22% year-on-year, indicating strong user engagement in gaming [4][5] - AI content viewing time increased by nearly 50%, attracting professional developers and industry experts to the community [5] Future Outlook - Bilibili's self-developed game "Escape from Duckkov" sold over 3 million copies globally within three weeks, generating over 200 million RMB in revenue, positively impacting Q4 earnings [3] - The company plans to continue its long-term operational strategy and focus on youth-oriented content to enhance user experience [3][5] - Bilibili aims to strengthen the synergy between community engagement and commercialization to foster a vibrant ecosystem [5]

Core Insights - Bilibili (NASDAQ: BILI, HKEX: 9626) reported a total revenue of 7.69 billion RMB for Q3 2025, marking a 5% year-over-year increase [1] - The platform experienced significant growth in user engagement, with daily active users reaching 117 million, an increase of 9% year-over-year [1][3] - The company achieved a substantial increase in adjusted net profit, which rose by 233% year-over-year to 790 million RMB [1][4] User Engagement - Daily active users reached 117 million, while monthly active users hit 376 million, both representing historical highs [3][11] - Average daily usage time increased to 112 minutes, up by 6 minutes year-over-year [1][11] - The number of monthly paying users exceeded 35 million, reflecting a 17% year-over-year growth [1][11] Community Ecosystem - The community ecosystem showed accelerated growth, with a 10% year-over-year increase in the number of official members, totaling 278 million [3] - The retention rate for users over 12 months remained stable at 80% [3][17] - Content engagement surged, particularly in AI-related content, which saw a nearly 50% increase in playback time [3][13] Revenue Breakdown - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 7.69 billion RMB, with contributions from various segments: value-added services (39%), advertising (33%), gaming (20%), and IP derivatives and other businesses (8%) [4][8] - Advertising revenue reached 2.57 billion RMB, growing 23% year-over-year, driven by increased brand engagement across luxury, beauty, and automotive sectors [4][8] - Gaming revenue amounted to 1.51 billion RMB, supported by long-term operational strategies for popular titles [4][20] Profitability - Adjusted net profit for the quarter was 790 million RMB, a significant increase of 233% year-over-year [1][4] - Gross margin improved for the thirteenth consecutive quarter, reaching 36.7% [9] Creator Economy - The number of creators with over 10,000 followers increased by over 20% year-over-year, indicating a thriving creator community [3][14] - Nearly 2.5 million creators earned income through various channels on the platform, with average income per creator rising by 22% year-over-year [3][15] Cash Position - As of September 30, 2025, the company held cash and cash equivalents, term deposits, and short-term investments totaling 23.49 billion RMB [5]

Core Insights - Bilibili (referred to as "B站") reported a total revenue of 7.69 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5% [1] - The platform's daily active users reached 117 million, up 9% year-on-year, while monthly active users increased to 376 million, a growth of 8% [1] - The average daily usage time per user rose to 112 minutes, an increase of 6 minutes compared to the previous year [1] User Engagement - Content consumption in gaming, AI, and knowledge areas continued to grow, with gaming content viewing time increasing by 22% year-on-year and AI content viewing time nearly doubling with a growth of 50% [1] - The viewing time for automotive content grew by 20%, and travel content saw an 18% increase [1] - Domestic original content viewing time surged by 104%, with the series "凡人修仙传" achieving over 180 million views per episode, setting a historical record [1] - The number of "UP主" (content creators) with over 10,000 followers increased by over 20% year-on-year, and nearly 2.5 million "UP主" earned income through various channels, with average income per creator rising by 22% [1] Financial Performance - Bilibili's revenue from value-added services, advertising, gaming, and IP derivatives contributed 39%, 33%, 20%, and 8% respectively to total revenue [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 increased by 233% year-on-year, reaching 790 million yuan [2] - Advertising revenue accelerated to 2.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 23%, while gaming revenue stood at 1.51 billion yuan, supported by long-term operations of games like "Fate/Grand Order" and "Azur Lane" [2] - Revenue from value-added services reached 3.02 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase [2]

Core Insights - Bilibili's game "Escape from Duckkov" has achieved significant success, selling over 2 million copies within two weeks of its release and receiving a 96% positive rating from Steam players, indicating a strong market reception [1][2][6] - The game aligns well with Bilibili's user base, which is predominantly young and creative, suggesting a potential for community-driven content to enhance game popularity [7][10] - Despite the success of "Escape from Duckkov," Bilibili faces challenges in diversifying its game offerings and developing self-published IPs to ensure sustainable growth in the gaming sector [8][9] Sales Performance - "Escape from Duckkov" reached over 2 million sales by November 2, ranking fifth on Steam's most-played games list, with a peak concurrent player count of 245,000 [1] - The game has received a 96% positive rating from players on Steam, reflecting its popularity and favorable reception [2] Player Feedback - Players have praised the game for its high completion level and rich content, with many finding it easy to pick up and play [5] - The development team incorporated player feedback into the game design, with 50% of the game's design influenced by player suggestions [5] Community Engagement - Bilibili's ecosystem allows for a "community-content-game" loop, where players engage with content creators, discuss strategies, and create derivative content, which drives game sales [6] - The game's design encourages community interaction, aligning with Bilibili's user preferences for creative and social gaming experiences [7] Market Position and Challenges - Bilibili's gaming revenue has fluctuated, with a decline in 2022 and a recovery in 2023, driven by the success of "Escape from Duckkov" and other established titles [8][9] - The company has recognized the importance of self-developed games for long-term sustainability, but has faced challenges in delivering consistent, scalable products [9][10] Future Outlook - Bilibili's strategy has shifted towards a more selective approach to self-developed games, focusing on quality over quantity [10] - The success of "Escape from Duckkov" may pave the way for more independent and expressive games that resonate with Bilibili's user base [10]