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电力设备及新能源行业之光伏跟踪支架专题报告:亚非拉美晴川阔,银线追光越八荒
Dongguan Securities· 2025-08-28 11:09
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [70] Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic support structure is a crucial component of photovoltaic power generation systems, directly impacting the efficiency and investment returns of solar power plants [6][16] - The global photovoltaic market is experiencing significant growth, with an expected increase in global installed capacity to approximately 530 GW in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.9% [50] - The domestic market for tracking supports is anticipated to benefit from the development of centralized photovoltaic power plants, with a notable increase in installed capacity [32] Summary by Sections 1. Photovoltaic Support Structures - Fixed supports are the primary application type in domestic photovoltaic power plants, while tracking supports are gaining traction due to their ability to adjust to the sun's angle, enhancing energy capture [30][32] - The market for tracking supports is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.4% from 2024 to 2027 [54] 2. Global Photovoltaic Development - The global demand for tracking supports is driven by the increasing installation of large ground-mounted photovoltaic power plants, with a projected market size of approximately 797 billion yuan in 2024 [54] - The penetration rate of tracking supports is expected to rise from 52% in 2024 to 64% by 2027, indicating a growing acceptance of this technology [54] 3. Key Companies - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that domestic companies like Zhongxinbo and Trina Solar are enhancing their international competitiveness and market positions [64][68] - Zhongxinbo is positioned as a leading global provider of photovoltaic support systems, with a strong focus on technological innovation and market expansion [66][68]
中信博20250805
2025-08-05 15:42
Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the photovoltaic (PV) tracking bracket market, specifically discussing the company CITIC Bo and its competitive position within the industry [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Market Growth and Demand - The global PV tracking bracket market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by significant demand for ground power stations, although regional penetration rates vary widely [2]. - The demand for tracking brackets is projected to reach approximately 111 GW in 2024, with penetration rates still below 50% in many regions, particularly in the Middle East and India [3]. - China has a high demand for ground power stations but a low penetration rate for tracking brackets, indicating substantial growth potential [3][12]. Competitive Advantages of CITIC Bo - CITIC Bo holds a competitive advantage in emerging markets like the Middle East and India due to its Chinese background, integrated R&D and manufacturing model, and first-mover advantage [2][4]. - The company is expected to increase its market share to over 20% in 2024, driven by increased shipments in these regions [3][4]. Financial Performance and Stock Price - CITIC Bo's stock price has underperformed since 2025, influenced by factors such as lower-than-expected orders and tariff impacts [2][5]. - Despite stock price declines, the company achieved a record high in new orders in Q1, totaling 4.3 billion yuan, with a backlog of 7.3 billion yuan [5][11]. - The company is currently trading at a reasonable valuation of 13-14 times PE, compared to 15-20 times for US peers [7][24]. Industry Dynamics and Challenges - The tracking bracket industry has experienced cyclical fluctuations, with component price declines and recovering overseas demand contributing to industry recovery [2][8]. - Steel price fluctuations pose a risk to profit margins, although the overall impact is mitigated by stable delivery conditions across the industry [10][21]. Regional Market Insights - The US and Europe are mature markets with high penetration rates but slowing growth, while the Middle East and India are emerging markets with significant growth potential [13][14]. - In 2024, India's ground power station installations are expected to grow by 185%, reaching 18.5 GW, with CITIC Bo delivering nearly 10 GW [13][19]. Future Growth and Profitability - The company anticipates a slowdown in tracking bracket shipment growth in 2025 and 2026, following a 128% increase in 2024 [20]. - Long-term growth will depend on maintaining a strong presence in emerging markets and expanding into Europe, Latin America, and the US [25]. - Profitability is projected to exceed 1.5 billion yuan, contingent on global demand growth and steel price stability [25]. Additional Important Insights - The tracking bracket market is characterized by a significant disparity in profit margins between US and Chinese companies, with US firms benefiting from subsidies that enhance their margins [17]. - CITIC Bo's integrated production model allows for faster product iteration and lower costs compared to competitors who separate design and manufacturing [18]. - The company has successfully increased its tracking bracket delivery ratio from 40-50% to around 80%, with margins improving as steel prices decline [8][21]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the competitive landscape, market dynamics, and future outlook for CITIC Bo and the PV tracking bracket industry.