白银曾经被很多人当作饰品原料的金属，不仅在2025年创下了146%的暴涨纪录，远超黄金60%的涨幅，更在开年就迎来了中国稀土级别的出口管控。 这波管控到底意味着什么？全球都在抢的白银，为什么突然变得这么金贵？2026年这场白银热潮，还能继续疯狂下去吗？今天老哥就带大家把这件事彻底聊 透。 很多人对白银的认知还停留在饰品或者投资品上，但现在的白银，早已是支撑全球高科技产业发展的核心支柱，堪称科技革命的隐形基石。 之所以能在2025年迎来暴涨，核心原因就是刚需的爆发式增长，而这背后离不开三大高增长领域的强力拉动。 作为全球新能源转型的核心赛道，光伏产业的发展速度有目共睹，而白银就是光伏电池板的核心材料。 每一块高效太阳能电池板，都需要银浆来收集电流，没有白银，光伏电池的转换效率就会大打折扣。 它不仅是新能源车电池的重要组成部分，还广泛用于线束、传感器等关键部件。 要知道，一辆新能源车的白银用量是传统燃油车的好几倍，而全球电动汽车产业正以13%的年复合增长率高速发展，这无疑为白银需求提供了强劲的支撑。 根据行业预测，到2030年光伏行业的白银需求量将增至4.5亿盎司，仅这一个领域就会持续拉动白银需求的增长。 随着全 ...

中国南京的购物中心（12月，Reuters） 2026年的经济增速预测范围为4.0%～5.0%，平均值为4.5%，较9月的上次调查提高0.2个 百分点。不少经济学家指出，消费者的通缩思维呈现出常态化…… 日本经济新闻与日经QUICK新闻汇总的中国经济学家调查结果显示，中国2026年的实际国内 生产总值（GDP）的预测平均值为同比增长4.5%。虽然美国加征关税导致的出口前景不确定 性有所下降，但仍难以弥补房地产市场行情和消费的低迷，预计中国经济增速将放缓。 2025年经济增速的预测平均值为4.9%，几乎所有受访经济学家都认为能够实现政府提出 的"5%左右"的增长目标。 当前10～12月的同比增速预测平均值为4.4%。比7～9月低0.4个百分点。从反映经济势头的 经季节调整后的环比增速预测平均值来看，10～12月为1.0%，较7～9月放缓0.1个百分点。 2025年为应对美国加征关税而提前出口的动向以及消费提振政策，对经济起到了推高作用。 经济学家们认为9月之前积累的"超预期表现"将会吸收最后阶段的失速。瑞穗银行的伊藤秀树 将2025年全年增速预期上调至4.9%，比原来提高0.2个百分点，并解释称："考虑到1～9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights China's leading role in the increase of renewable energy utilization, particularly in solar and wind power, which is seen as a significant breakthrough in addressing climate change [2][4]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Growth - Renewable energy generation is projected to meet the global increase in electricity demand in the first half of 2025, surpassing coal-fired power generation [4]. - China supplies 80% of the world's photovoltaic (PV) panels and 70% of wind turbines, dominating the production of renewable energy technologies [4]. - The growth of renewable energy has contributed to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in China, enhancing the likelihood of reaching peak global CO2 emissions [4]. Group 2: Global Impact - The proliferation of renewable energy sources is now viewed as unstoppable, with significant implications for global energy markets and climate change mitigation efforts [2][4]. - The recognition of renewable energy as a major breakthrough in 2025 underscores its critical role in the global transition towards sustainable energy [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's strategic control over critical mineral supply chains, particularly in the context of the ongoing trade tensions with the United States, highlighting the implications of China's export restrictions on rare earth elements and other key minerals [1][3][4]. Group 1: China's Control Over Critical Minerals - China dominates approximately 60% of global rare earth production, which is essential for electric vehicle (EV) motors, and its export restrictions have led to production halts in major automotive companies like Ford and Suzuki [3][4]. - In the refining stage of 20 key minerals surveyed by the International Energy Agency (IEA), China holds an average market share of about 70%, indicating its significant influence in the global supply chain [4][5]. - For cobalt, a critical material for EV batteries, while 70% of the raw material is sourced from the Democratic Republic of Congo, China controls around 80% of the refining market [5]. Group 2: Global Demand and Technological Dominance - The demand for critical minerals is increasing due to the transition to renewable energy, with China also leading in the production of solar panels (approximately 80%), wind turbines (around 60%), and EV batteries (over 70%) [6]. - As the world accelerates its energy transition, reliance on China for these critical minerals is expected to grow, emphasizing the strategic importance of China's resource control [6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Strategic Initiatives - China's focus on rare earth elements dates back to the 1980s, where it gained a competitive edge due to more lenient environmental regulations compared to Japan, the US, and Europe [7]. - The Belt and Road Initiative has further strengthened China's resource security by investing in mineral projects in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia [7]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications and Supply Chain Strategies - The article highlights the geopolitical risks associated with China's dominance in supply chains, particularly as the US seeks to revitalize its manufacturing sector [8][9]. - Companies are encouraged to diversify their supply chains and develop alternative technologies to mitigate risks associated with reliance on critical minerals [9].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese companies are significantly increasing their solar power generation capacity in the United States, with Mitsubishi Corporation planning to invest $3.9 billion to boost its capacity to 2.9 million kilowatts by 2028 [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Plans - Mitsubishi Corporation will invest a total of $3.9 billion, increasing its solar power generation capacity in the U.S. to 2.6 times the current level by 2028 [1][3]. - Itochu Corporation's subsidiary, Tyr Energy, is developing 29 projects with a total capacity of approximately 5 million kilowatts, aiming to reach about 10 million kilowatts by 2030 [4]. - SoftBank Group operates solar power stations with a total capacity of 2.55 million kilowatts across eight regions in the U.S., with plans to exceed 15 million kilowatts in the medium to long term [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. solar power generation capacity is projected to reach 182 million kilowatts by 2026, a 49% increase over two years, surpassing wind power growth [3]. - The Trump administration continues to support solar power through tax incentives, which is expected to enhance installed capacity [1][5]. - The Biden administration has introduced additional tax incentives for companies using domestically produced equipment, further promoting solar energy development [5]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Local Procurement - Nexamp, partly funded by Mitsubishi, currently operates solar power stations with a total capacity of about 1.1 million kilowatts, planning to reach 2.9 million kilowatts by 2028 [3]. - Nexamp plans to switch to solar panels produced in the U.S. to mitigate the impact of tariffs, making local procurement easier compared to wind power [4]. - The shift to local procurement is seen as advantageous in the solar sector, allowing for better control over supply chains and tariff impacts [4].

Core Viewpoint - The financial reports of seven major Chinese photovoltaic (PV) battery companies for the fiscal year 2024 show a combined loss of 27 billion yuan, marking the first loss since 2017 due to overproduction and deteriorating market conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The seven listed Chinese PV battery companies reported a total loss of 27 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, a stark contrast to a total profit of 41.8 billion yuan in the previous fiscal year [2]. - Five of these companies, including Longi Green Energy, experienced significant losses, while the largest, JinkoSolar, saw a 98% reduction in profits [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rapid decline in performance is attributed to overproduction by Chinese companies, leading to a market downturn [3]. - The price of PV battery panels has dropped nearly 70% since early 2022, with prices reaching 9 cents per watt by the end of 2024 [3]. Group 3: Global Market Position - Chinese companies dominate the global PV battery market, holding over 80% of the production capacity and accounting for nine out of the top ten global PV panel manufacturers [2][3]. - Despite being a major demand country for new PV installations, China faces challenges in absorbing its domestic supply, resulting in excess products being exported [3]. Group 4: International Trade Issues - The influx of low-priced PV products from China has weakened local manufacturers in Europe, leading to increased international friction [2][4]. - The European Solar Manufacturing Council has urged the EU to implement trade protection measures to safeguard local businesses [5].

Group 1 - Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers are increasingly entering Vietnam, with JinkoSolar establishing a factory there in June 2024 [2] - Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh issued directives on April 22 to address concerns over origin fraud, smuggling, and trade deception, emphasizing the need for preparation in negotiations with the U.S. [4] - The Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade has requested stricter measures for issuing certificates of origin to prevent fraud, particularly in light of a surge in applications [4] Group 2 - The Trump administration views circumvention exports as a significant issue, suspecting Chinese companies of setting up bases in third countries to mislabel products before exporting to the U.S. [6] - Vietnam's exports to the U.S. have increased, with a trade surplus exceeding $100 billion in 2024, raising suspicions of circumvention practices [6] - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on April 21 that it would impose punitive tariffs of up to 3521% on imported solar panels from Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia [6] Group 3 - If Vietnam and South Korea cooperate with the U.S. on these issues, it may provoke backlash from China, which has condemned the U.S. for negotiating tariffs that limit trade with China [7] - Recent reports indicate that the Chinese government has warned South Korean companies against exporting products containing Chinese rare earths to U.S. defense-related firms, threatening potential sanctions [8]