证券研究报告 2026年度半导体设备行业策略： 看好存储&先进逻辑扩产， 设备商国产化迎新机遇 首席证券分析师：周尔双 执业证书编号：S0600515110002 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 13915521100 证券分析师：李文意 执业证书编号：S0600524080005 liwenyi@dwzq.com.cn 18867136239 2026年2月27日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ⚫ AI驱动先进逻辑与存储扩产，资本开支进入新一轮上行周期。在AI算力需求爆发背景下，全球半导体设备市 场规模持续创新高。先进逻辑端，FinFET向GAA/CFET演进，5nm及以下制程单位产能设备投资额显著提升 ，单万片/月产能投资额较28nm提升数倍；存储端，HBM带动DRAM高阶制程升级，3D NAND向400层以上 堆叠演进，单万片产能投资额同步提升。中国大陆晶圆产能全球占比仍低于销售占比，逻辑与存储龙头资本 开支维持高位，叠加两大存储厂商上市融资在即，扩产动能具备持续性，支撑前道设备景气度中长期上行。 ⚫ 制程迭代推动设备结构升级，刻蚀与薄膜沉积价值量提升。先进制程结构复杂化带动图形 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the resurgence of tariffs, particularly from the Trump administration, which may lead to increased volatility in the Hong Kong stock market in the short term, although a long-term upward trend remains intact [1][2] - The report emphasizes that the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session and the 15th Five-Year Plan will be crucial for market sentiment, with potential for stronger recovery if policies exceed expectations [1] - In the medium to long term, the report maintains a positive outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, driven by global monetary easing, the unstoppable trend of the AI industry, and anticipated improvements in economic fundamentals and corporate earnings in Q1 of the following year [1][6] Market Performance - Over the past two weeks, developed markets have declined by 0.9%, while emerging markets have risen by 3.0% [5] - The Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.6%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.0% [5][11] - The report notes that the materials sector led the gains, with significant inflows into non-essential consumer goods and information technology, while the telecommunications sector experienced outflows [5] Economic Data - Mixed macroeconomic data is presented, with positive indicators such as a 60,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and an ISM manufacturing index of 49.1, which is better than expected [3][6] - However, there are concerns with a 32,000 decrease in ADP employment and a services PMI drop to 50, indicating potential economic headwinds [3][6] Trade Relations - The report discusses the escalation of US-China trade tensions, with Trump threatening to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, which could further complicate market dynamics [2] - It also mentions China's retaliatory measures, including export controls on rare earth materials, which could impact various sectors [2] Investment Trends - The report indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven sectors due to tariff concerns and market volatility, with a notable increase in gold ETF holdings [6][35] - The report highlights that technology, materials, and healthcare sectors are seeing the most inflows, while utilities and financials are experiencing outflows [7][39] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming data releases include the US CPI on October 15 and unemployment claims on October 16, which will be critical for assessing economic conditions [8][42] - Significant corporate earnings reports are also expected, including those from major companies like Haikang Weishi and Cambricon [8]