Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a high prosperity cycle driven by self-controllable policies and AI technology, with the semiconductor equipment index rising by 57.28% this year [3]. Investment Strategy - The investment framework is divided into three levels: industry prosperity cycle (40%-50% weight), company fundamentals (30%-40% weight), and valuation level [4][5]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is entering a high growth phase, transitioning from 0 to 1 to 1 to 10, making it an ideal investment opportunity [4]. Market Dynamics - The core logic of the self-controllable direction is the increase in domestic production rates combined with demand-driven long-term high growth [6]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment and materials manufacturers are benefiting from the continuous expansion of downstream wafer fabs, providing significant growth space [6]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is currently in the early to mid-stage of high-speed growth, supported by both domestic policies and increasing demand for high-end equipment from wafer fabs [6]. Emerging Opportunities - Advanced packaging is also viewed positively, as it becomes crucial for enhancing chip performance amid the slowdown of Moore's Law, with AI driving related demand [7]. - The investment landscape is characterized by a historic opportunity driven by domestic substitution and AI, with domestic self-controllable processes deepening and being less affected by global economic cycles [8]. Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to see significant improvements in penetration and domestic production rates over the next three years, maintaining high growth rates [6]. - Companies successfully positioned in the AI supply chain are anticipated to gain global competitiveness, opening up larger development spaces [8]. - Caution is advised regarding stocks that rely heavily on price rebounds, particularly in the storage chip sector, where significant price increases have already occurred [9].

Core Insights - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a high prosperity cycle driven by self-controllable policies and AI technology, with a year-to-date increase of 57.28% in the semiconductor equipment index [1] - Continuous support for self-controllable policies and strong demand from AI and emerging applications are expected to inject robust growth momentum into the domestic advanced process semiconductor chip industry chain from Q4 this year to next year [1] Investment Framework - The investment framework is divided into three levels: industry prosperity cycle (40%-50% weight), company fundamentals (30%-40% weight), and valuation level [2][3] - The semiconductor equipment sector has completed the initial breakthrough and is entering a high-speed growth phase, making it an ideal investment opportunity [2] Growth Drivers - The semiconductor equipment sector is in the early to mid-stage of high-speed growth, benefiting from dual positive drivers: ongoing support for self-controllable policies and increasing demand for mid-to-high-end equipment from large wafer fabs [4] - The recent price increases and shortages in the memory sector are expected to boost capital expenditures, driving demand for etching, thin film deposition, and advanced packaging equipment [4] Future Outlook - The semiconductor self-controllable sector is anticipated to enter a critical breakthrough period over the next three years, with significant improvements in penetration and domestic production rates [5] - The advanced packaging field is also favored, as it becomes a key path for enhancing chip performance amid the slowdown of Moore's Law [5] Investment Opportunities - The investment landscape is characterized by the historical opportunity presented by domestic substitution and AI-driven growth [6] - Companies successfully positioned within the AI industry chain are expected to gain global competitiveness, with a focus on those benefiting from both domestic production rate increases and global competition [6] Market Considerations - Caution is advised for stocks heavily reliant on price rebounds, particularly in the DRAM sector, where prices have more than doubled compared to the end of last year [7]

或受此消息影响，截止11月21日收盘，拓荆科技股价下跌5.80%，报收290.00元/股，最新市值为815.4亿 元。若按照这一股价计算，大基金一期此次减持的金额最高将超过20亿元。 11月20日晚，拓荆科技发布公告，公司收到了股东国家集成电路产业投资基金有限公司（大基金一期） 的减持计划告知函。大基金一期计划在2025年12月12日至2026年3月11日，通过大宗交易方式减持拓荆 科技不超过843.5万股，即不超过总股本的3%。 截至三季度末，大基金一期是拓荆科技的第一大股东，持股比例高达19.57%，持股数量达5502.67万 股，且这些股份全部是在IPO前取得的。此次大基金一期的减持计划，无疑给市场对拓荆科技的投资情 绪带来了不小的冲击。 值得关注的是，拓荆科技的主要产品薄膜沉积设备，在芯片制造环节中占据着极为重要的地位。它和光 刻设备、刻蚀设备一同并称为芯片制造的三大核心设备。具体而言，薄膜沉积设备所沉积的薄膜，是芯 片结构内的功能材料层，在芯片制造过程中有着巨大的需求量。 聚焦第三季度，拓荆科技的业绩增长更加亮眼，实现营收22.66亿元，同比增124.15%；取得归母净利润 4.62亿元，同比增22 ...

东海证券研报指出，中微公司是国内半导体设备的龙头企业之一，公司深耕集成电路制造核心设备领 域，主要产品包括刻蚀与薄膜沉积设备两大类：刻蚀设备方面，公司的等离子体刻蚀设备已广泛应用于 国际一线芯片制造商的先进制程产线；薄膜沉积领域，公司近年来成功开发的LPCVD和ALD设备已通 过客户验证，多款产品进入市场并获大批量重复订单。在泛半导体设备领域，公司氮化镓MOCVD设备 保持全球领先，随着全球半导体产业向三五族化合物半导体加速拓展，尤其在Mini/Micro LED新型显 示、新能源汽车功率器件等领域的需求持续释放，MOCVD设备作为关键工艺装备，市场空间将进一步 扩大。此外，公司积极把握半导体设备市场新机遇，通过子公司超微、中微惠创、中微汇链等在量检测 设备、环保设备、工业互联网等领域积极拓展，构建多元化的业绩增长点。作为国内龙头的半导体设备 公司，公司深耕刻蚀设备，同时切入更多细分市场，进一步打开业绩成长空间。首次覆盖，给予"买 入"评级。 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年11月21日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251121 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 [table_summary] ➢ 1.中微公司（688012）：国产刻蚀设备领军者，薄膜业务蓄势待发——公司深度报告 ➢ 2.金发科技（600143）：从材料到平台，科技浪潮下验证成长逻辑——公司深度报告 ➢ 1.国务院副总理何立峰在湖北、湖南调研时强调，持续推动外贸提质增效 ➢ 2.LPR报价按兵不动 ➢ 3.行业协会将建议设成本红线规范报价，磷酸铁锂行业推进反内卷 ➢ 4.美国9月非农好于预期，失业率小幅上行 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | 1.1. 中微公司（6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its leading technology in core equipment and solid growth foundation through R&D and team development [5][12]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in high-end semiconductor equipment in China, with its core products including plasma etching equipment, MOCVD equipment, and thin film deposition equipment, showcasing strong technical capabilities [6][14]. - The company has a highly educated and international core team, with significant R&D investment, which is expected to drive future growth [7][24]. - The global semiconductor equipment market is projected to exceed $100 billion, with significant growth opportunities in the etching equipment segment driven by advancements in AI, 5G, and 3D NAND technologies [8][60]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on the independent R&D and industrialization of high-end semiconductor equipment, having established a comprehensive equipment system covering integrated circuits and the broader semiconductor industry [18][41]. Market Performance - As of November 2025, the company's stock price is 306.10 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 191.66 billion yuan [3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.961 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.88%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 706 million yuan, up 36.62% [31][38]. - The company’s R&D expenses reached 1.116 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 96.65% year-on-year [31][35]. Growth Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.325 billion yuan, 3.144 billion yuan, and 4.221 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.90%, 35.23%, and 34.27% [9][12]. Competitive Position - The company has established a strong competitive position in the etching equipment market, with over 4,500 installed units of CCP etching equipment and nearly 1,200 units of ICP etching equipment as of mid-2025 [6][44]. - The company is also a leading supplier of MOCVD equipment for GaN-based applications, with significant market share in the high-end Mini-LED display epitaxial wafer market [6][52]. Industry Outlook - The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to reach $123.1 billion by 2025, with the etching equipment segment projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.6% from 2024 to 2029 [60][67]. - The domestic market in China is rapidly increasing its localization rate for semiconductor equipment, providing substantial growth opportunities for the company [8][67].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing global AI wave and the resulting shortage of storage chips, which is driving an expansion in production capacity, particularly in high-end storage products like HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) [3][4]. Group 1: Storage Shortage and Expansion Expectations - The current upcycle in storage chips is primarily driven by the explosive demand from AI servers and multimodal applications, leading to shortages and price increases [5]. - In October, prices for various storage models surged, with increases ranging from 40% to 100%. Major manufacturers like SanDisk announced a 50% price hike for NAND flash memory due to heightened demand and tight wafer supply [6]. - The shift of international manufacturers away from low-end markets to focus on high-end products has exacerbated supply shortages, particularly affecting consumer electronics like smartphones and PCs [6][7]. Group 2: Performance of Domestic Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment sector has shown strong performance, with the total revenue for the sector reaching 85.21 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.54% [8]. - Companies like拓荆科技 reported a revenue of 4.22 billion yuan, up 85.27%, and a net profit increase of 105.14% [8][9]. - Inventory and contract liabilities are at historical highs, indicating strong order visibility and future revenue potential for equipment manufacturers [9]. Group 3: Domestic Equipment Manufacturers' Growth - Domestic storage leaders like Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory are expected to enhance their production capacity post-IPO, further boosting the demand for domestic equipment [7]. - The semiconductor equipment market is benefiting from the expansion of storage production, with key equipment types like etching and deposition devices seeing increased demand [9][10]. - Companies such as北方华创 and中微公司 are achieving significant milestones in equipment delivery and product development, positioning themselves well in the high-end semiconductor equipment market [10].

Core Insights - The global AI wave is driving a significant shortage in storage chips, leading to an expansion trend among manufacturers, particularly in high-end storage products like HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) [1][2] - Domestic storage manufacturers are under increasing pressure to expand production, with semiconductor equipment becoming a focal point for market attention [1][3] - The semiconductor equipment sector has seen strong performance in the stock market, with companies like Tuojing Technology achieving over 120% annual growth [1][3][4] Industry Trends - The current upcycle in storage chips is primarily driven by the explosive demand from AI servers and multimodal applications, resulting in a shortage and price increases [2][3] - Prices for various storage models have surged, with increases ranging from 40% to 100% in October, and major players like SanDisk raising NAND flash contract prices by 50% due to heightened demand and supply constraints [2][3] - The shift of international manufacturers from low-end to high-end markets has exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, particularly affecting consumer electronics like smartphones and PCs [2][3] Company Performance - The semiconductor equipment sector reported robust growth in Q3, with total revenue reaching 85.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.54% [4][5] - Companies like Tuojing Technology and Zhongwei Company have shown significant revenue and profit growth, with Tuojing's revenue increasing by 85.27% and net profit by 105.14% [4][5] - Inventory and contract liabilities are at historical highs, indicating strong order visibility and future performance potential for equipment manufacturers [5] Equipment Demand - The demand for high-end semiconductor equipment, particularly for etching and thin film deposition, is expected to rise significantly due to the expansion of storage chip production [6] - Domestic manufacturers are increasingly focusing on high-end semiconductor equipment, with companies like Beifang Huachuang achieving significant milestones in equipment delivery [6] - The introduction of new products in the etching and deposition categories by companies like Zhongwei is indicative of the growing market for advanced semiconductor manufacturing [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][21]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 124.15% year-on-year and 81.94% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 2.266 billion yuan in Q3 2025. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 462 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 225.07% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 91.60% [6][7]. - The company is actively seizing opportunities in domestic semiconductor equipment replacement, enhancing product innovation and industrial application. R&D expenses reached 184 million yuan in Q3 2025, up 10.87% year-on-year, with a research expense ratio of 8.13% [6][7]. - The company has become a leading domestic manufacturer in the integrated circuit field, with comprehensive coverage of hard mask processes and the highest market share in ALD equipment thin film processes [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 4.103 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 51.7%. By 2025E, revenue is expected to reach 6.531 billion yuan, growing by 59.2% [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 688 million yuan in 2024A, increasing to 1.035 billion yuan in 2025E, representing a growth rate of 50.4% [6][7]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 34.42%, with a net profit margin of 20.00%, showing an improvement in profitability despite a slight decline in gross margin due to new product costs [6][7].

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry index in China has decreased by 0.97% as of November 5, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [3] - The semiconductor industry ETF (159582) has seen a decline of 1.04%, with a latest price of 2.1 yuan, but has accumulated a 40.38% increase over the past two months [3] - The trading volume for the semiconductor industry ETF was 29.88 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 6.99% [3] Group 2 - The global semiconductor industry is undergoing a significant restructuring driven by geopolitical factors, shifting from a global efficiency-first supply chain to a regionally secure model [4] - Major economies like the US, EU, and China are implementing large-scale industrial policies that promote regionalization and multi-polar development in the semiconductor supply chain [4] - Emerging fields such as third-generation semiconductors and advanced packaging are gaining attention, providing differentiated innovation opportunities for Chinese companies [4] Group 3 - In the first three quarters of 2025, Zhongwei Company reported a revenue of 8.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 46.40%, and a net profit of 1.211 billion yuan, up 32.66% [3] - The thin-film equipment business of Zhongwei Company has experienced explosive growth, with revenue from LPCVD and ALD thin-film equipment reaching 403 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1332.69% [3] - The semiconductor industry ETF has reached a new high in scale at 435 million yuan, the highest in nearly a year [5] Group 4 - The semiconductor industry ETF has seen a net inflow of 58.2535 million yuan over the past five trading days, with an average daily net inflow of 11.6507 million yuan [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the semiconductor industry index account for 78.04% of the index, including companies like Zhongwei, Beifang Huachuang, and Cambricon [5]