证券研究报告 迈为股份 (300751 CH) 海外 HJT 确收，半导体设备布局加速 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 | 24 日│中国内地 | 专用设备 | 目标价(人民币): | 110.84 | 公司发布 2025 年半年报。2025 上半年公司实现营业收入 42.1 亿元，同比 -13.5%；实现归母净利润 3.9 亿元,同比-14.6%；其中二季度实现营业收入 19.8 亿元，环比-11.0%，实现归母净利润 2.3 亿元，环比+43.0%。我们看 好公司海外 HJT 设备和半导体晶圆制造、封装等设备拓展对公司长期收入 和利润的推动作用。维持"买入"评级。 海外 HJT 设备与半导体设备收入确认推动公司毛利率提升 根据公司半年报，Q2 公司实现毛利率 39.0%，同比+8.0pp，环比+9.9pp； 实现净利率 12.3%，同比+4.8pp，环比+5.4pp。公司毛利率提升，我们认 为主要系海外 HJT 设备收入确认和半导体设备收入确认推动。25 上半 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a rare upward trend driven by policy support, technological breakthroughs, and market demand, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board benefiting significantly from the strong performance of companies like Cambricon and SMIC [1]. Group 1: Dual Engine Drive - Cambricon and SMIC serve as benchmark companies, driving the semiconductor sector's growth [2]. Group 2: Eight Representative Companies - Haiguang Information (688041): Leading domestic CPU/DCU company, expected to benefit from AI computing power demand with a projected net profit increase of 120% in 2025 [4]. - Northern Huachuang (002371): Leading semiconductor equipment company, with a projected 35% increase in orders in 2025 and continuous market share growth in etching and thin film deposition equipment [5]. - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986): Leading storage chip company, ranked third globally in NOR Flash market share, with significant growth expected in automotive-grade storage chips [6]. - Zhongwei Company (688012): Leading etching equipment company, with a breakthrough in 5nm technology and expected new orders exceeding 20 billion yuan in 2025 [6]. - Baiwei Storage (688525): Leading storage module company, projected to see a 191% year-on-year increase in net profit in Q2 2025 due to emerging demands from AI glasses [6]. - China Resources Microelectronics (688396): Leading power semiconductor company, with IGBT modules entering the new energy vehicle supply chain and a projected capacity utilization rate of 95% in 2025 [6]. - Changdian Technology (600584): Leading advanced packaging company, with Chiplet technology in mass production and high-end packaging revenue expected to exceed 40% in 2025 [6]. - Jingjiawei (300474): Leading domestic GPU company, increasing investment in edge AI chip development to adapt to low-power scenarios [6]. Group 3: Potential Stock Focus - Jingjiawei (300474): A rare player in edge AI chips, benefiting from the trend towards AI terminalization [8]. - The company has made technological breakthroughs, with its edge AI chips already adapted for smart glasses and robots, and plans to launch its first GPU supporting FP8 precision in 2025, improving decoding efficiency by 30% [9]. - The global smart glasses shipment volume is expected to increase by 110% year-on-year, with Meta holding over 70% market share, leading to a surge in high-density storage demand [9]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is entering a new cycle of simultaneous volume and price increases, supported by policies (brain-computer interfaces, AI+), technological advancements (domestic lithography machines, FP8 precision), and demand growth (AI model iteration, storage price increases) [10]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board, as a main battleground for hard technology, will continue to benefit from domestic substitution and industrial upgrades, with a focus on computing power chips, advanced packaging, and edge AI [10].

事项： 投资建议。维持公司盈利预测，预计2025-2027 年公司归母净利润为8.29、6.40、7.91 亿元，动态PE 为 28.8、37.3、30.2 倍。公司技术实力突出，半导体业务呈现快速成长，维持公司"推荐"评级。 公司发布2025 年半年报，上半年实现营收42.13 亿元，同比减少13.48%，归母净利润3.94 亿元，同比减 少14.59%，扣非后净利润3.64 亿元，同比减少10.18%。 风险提示。1）光伏行业需求及资本开支情况不及预期；2）行业竞争加剧及盈利水平不及预期；3）半 导体等新兴业务拓展不及预期。 平安观点： 光伏相关业务短期承压。上半年，公司实现收入42.13 亿元（其中光伏业务收入40.65 亿元），同比减少 13.48%，其中二季度营收19.84 亿元，同比减少25.15%，表明在当前光伏行业景气度偏低的背景下订单 确收节奏放缓。上半年公司主要产品毛利率同比有所上升，但减值计提增长幅度较大，资产减值及信用 减值合计规模3.95 亿元，同比增加1.65 亿元，一定程度拖累业绩。截至二季度末公司存货规模75.8 亿 元，较年初下降13.4亿元，应收账款规模48.6 亿元，较年 ...

Group 1 - The global market size for wafer manufacturing equipment is projected to grow significantly from 2021 to 2024, with various equipment categories showing increasing domestic production rates [2] - The market for thermal processing equipment is expected to increase from $31.5 billion in 2021 to a domestic production rate of approximately 23% by 2024 [2] - The market for thin film deposition equipment is projected to grow from $256.3 billion in 2021, with a domestic production rate reaching around 19% by 2024 [2] Group 2 - The etching equipment market is anticipated to grow from $180.9 billion in 2021, maintaining a domestic production rate of 28% from 2023 to 2024 [2] - The photolithography equipment market is valued at $258.4 billion, with no specific domestic production rate data provided for the years 2021 to 2024 [2] - The chemical mechanical planarization (CMP) equipment market is expected to grow from $29.8 billion in 2021, with a domestic production rate projected to be around 40% by 2024 [2] Group 3 - The cleaning equipment market is projected to grow from $65.7 billion in 2021, with a domestic production rate expected to be approximately 32% by 2024 [2] - The photoresist coating and developing equipment market is expected to grow from $35.3 billion in 2021, with a domestic production rate of about 10% by 2024 [2] - The detection and measurement equipment market is valued at $142.5 billion, with a domestic production rate projected to reach 5% by 2024 [2]

Semiconductor Industry Research Summary Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry exhibits a decreasing profitability trend across its value chain, with IC design being the most profitable, followed by wafer manufacturing, and equipment and materials being relatively lower in profitability [1][4] - The semiconductor manufacturing process is divided into front-end (80% value) and back-end processes (20% value), with front-end processes including diffusion, thin film deposition, lithography, and etching, while back-end processes involve wafer packaging [1][5] - The global semiconductor equipment market is approximately $100 billion, characterized by cyclical growth that fluctuates with semiconductor demand [1][10] Key Trends and Developments - The transition from 2D to 3D chip structures is increasing transistor density and complexity, driving capital expenditure [1][8] - Advanced processes significantly increase equipment demand, with capital expenditure density rising sharply; for instance, the capital expenditure for 7nm process is about $1.2 billion per 10,000 wafers, while for 5nm it reaches $8.3 billion per 5,000 wafers [9][11] - The semiconductor industry is highly concentrated, with the top five companies holding nearly 80% of the market share, including ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and KLA [13][15] Market Dynamics - The demand for semiconductor equipment is expected to remain robust, with China’s semiconductor equipment procurement projected to exceed $40 billion in 2025 and 2026 [3][18] - The domestic semiconductor equipment companies in China are benefiting from increased demand for self-sufficiency, with a low domestic production rate in lithography machines (below 5%) but higher rates in materials [3][19][16] - The semiconductor materials market is valued at over $60 billion, with wafer manufacturing materials accounting for approximately $42.9 billion and packaging materials around $24.6 billion [20] Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor materials sector offers advantages due to its continuous and cumulative demand, which is less affected by cyclical fluctuations compared to equipment manufacturing [21] - The current phase of expansion and increased self-sufficiency in the domestic semiconductor industry presents significant investment opportunities, particularly in advanced processes [22] - Despite some market segments being overheated, semiconductor equipment and materials remain undervalued, indicating a potential growth of about 30% from a valuation perspective [22]

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhongwei Company is reported at 195.93 yuan, with a decrease of 0.30 yuan, representing a decline of 0.15% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume for the day was 65,144 hands, with a transaction amount reaching 1.284 billion yuan [1] - Zhongwei Company operates in the semiconductor equipment industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of high-end semiconductor equipment, including etching and thin film deposition equipment, which play a crucial role in semiconductor manufacturing [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that driven by AI advancements and increased domestic production rates, domestic wafer fabs and storage manufacturers are expected to expand rapidly [1] - The semiconductor equipment industry faces uncertainties due to geopolitical factors, tariff fluctuations, and export controls, which may accelerate the process of achieving self-sufficiency [1] - On August 8, Zhongwei Company saw a net inflow of main funds amounting to 35.50 million yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 176.22 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Group 1 - Jiangsu Leadmicro Nano Technology Co., Ltd. is issuing convertible bonds to unspecified investors to raise funds for its semiconductor and nanotechnology projects [1][2][3] - The company has set a redemption clause for the bonds, with a redemption price of 110% of the bond's face value plus the last interest payment [3][4] - The company has not provided any guarantees for the bonds, which may pose risks if significant negative events affect its operations [4][5] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth, with the global semiconductor market expected to reach $588.4 billion by 2024, up from $412.3 billion in 2019 [22][23] - The demand for thin film deposition equipment in the semiconductor sector is increasing due to the expansion of wafer fabrication plants and the need for advanced manufacturing processes [23][24] - The global market for semiconductor thin film deposition equipment was valued at $21.1 billion in 2023, with projections to reach $55.9 billion by 2029 [24]

Core Viewpoint - The company is undergoing a transformation towards the semiconductor industry, primarily through its subsidiaries, but has yet to achieve profitability in this sector [3][4]. Semiconductor Business - The company has been transitioning to the semiconductor industry, focusing on specialized equipment through subsidiaries, with revenues of 206 million, 346 million, and 241 million RMB from 2022 to 2024, respectively [3][4]. - The gross profit margins for the specialized equipment manufacturing segment have declined, with rates of 19.74%, 18.01%, and a loss of 2.18 million RMB over the same period [3][4]. - The company has incurred significant losses in its semiconductor subsidiaries, with net losses of approximately 18.68 million, 33.51 million, and 58.26 million RMB from 2022 to 2024 [3][4]. Revenue and Cost Structure - The main products in the semiconductor equipment business include ion implanters and etching machines, with total revenues of 240.97 million, 345.85 million, and 206.44 million RMB for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively [4][5]. - The cost of sales for ion implanters was 95.44 million, 114.65 million, and 46.58 million RMB for the same years, indicating a significant cost burden [4][5]. Pricing Strategy - The pricing model for ion implanters is based on cost-plus pricing, referencing similar imported products and negotiated with clients [4][5]. - The subsidiary, 嘉芯半导体, has adopted a competitive pricing strategy for refurbished second-hand equipment to penetrate the market quickly [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The semiconductor equipment market is characterized by high technical barriers, with a lengthy verification process for equipment before revenue recognition [6][7]. - The company faces increased competition from overseas firms, leading to price reductions in its products to maintain market share [6][7]. Financial Reporting and Goodwill - The company has conducted goodwill impairment tests for its acquisition of 凯世通, with no impairment recognized due to the recoverable amount exceeding the carrying value [10][18]. - The goodwill related to the acquisition was assessed based on future cash flow projections, with no need for impairment recorded from 2022 to 2024 [10][18]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the revenue from previously delivered but unverified orders, amounting to approximately 395 million RMB, will be recognized in 2025 [14]. - The company is focusing on increasing its market share and improving gross margins through strategic pricing and enhanced R&D capabilities [19].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 32,000 JPY, corresponding to approximately 25 times FY26E PE [5][17][21]. Core Views - Tokyo Electron is Japan's largest and the world's fourth-largest semiconductor equipment manufacturer, with leading positions in various sectors such as coating and developing, etching, deposition, cleaning, and probe stations. The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing global semiconductor investment expansion, particularly in emerging fields driven by generative AI and advanced logic chips [5][17][21]. - The company has a strong market presence, with a 92% market share in the coating and developing sector, and is well-positioned to capitalize on the structural growth in demand for advanced processes in the semiconductor industry [5][17][21]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic 1: Benefiting from Structural Expansion in China's Advanced Process Demand - Tokyo Electron has significantly benefited from high capital expenditure in China's semiconductor industry, particularly in advanced processes like DRAM and logic chips. The company's revenue from mainland China is expected to grow by 24.8% year-on-year in FY25, maintaining its position as the largest market [6][18]. - Despite a projected 7% decline in the overall scale of the Chinese semiconductor market in CY25, demand for advanced process equipment is expected to structurally increase, allowing the company to maintain stable revenue growth in China [6][18]. Investment Logic 2: Benefiting from the Growth of High-End Equipment Demand Driven by Generative AI in the U.S. - In FY25, Tokyo Electron's revenue outside mainland China is projected to grow by 39.3%, with North America experiencing a significant 44.5% year-on-year increase. This growth is attributed to the ongoing investments in advanced semiconductor processes driven by U.S. semiconductor policies [7][19]. - The company holds a competitive edge in low-temperature etching and HBM wafer bonding technology, positioning it well to benefit from the expansion of advanced manufacturing in the U.S. [7][19]. Differentiated Market Perspective - While there are concerns about potential long-term declines in market share in China due to domestic semiconductor equipment initiatives, the report argues that Tokyo Electron has established a global supply chain capable of meeting regulatory and customer requirements, which will help maintain its market share in China [8][20]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts that Tokyo Electron's revenue will reach 2,431.6 billion JPY in FY25, marking a 32.8% year-on-year increase, with net profit expected to grow by 49.5% to 544.1 billion JPY. The company is projected to maintain strong growth in the coming years, with revenue growth rates of 8%/11%/11% and net profit growth rates of 9.8%/10.8%/11.6% for FY26/27/28 [9][27]. - The SPE new equipment business is anticipated to be the main revenue driver, accounting for 76.5% of total revenue in FY25, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35.6% [9][27].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of Shenyang, a city in Liaoning Province, from a traditional industrial base to a hub for semiconductor equipment manufacturing, showcasing the growth of local companies in this sector and their contributions to China's semiconductor industry [1]. Group 1: Industry Development - Shenyang has evolved from a steel manufacturing center to a significant player in the semiconductor equipment industry, with local companies like TuoJing Technology, XinYuan Micro, and FuChuang Precision leading the way [1][12]. - By May 2025, Liaoning Province had 84 listed companies, with over half being high-tech enterprises, indicating a strong focus on technological advancement [1]. - The semiconductor equipment industry in Liaoning has seen the emergence of a cluster of companies that have broken overseas monopolies in various fields, including film deposition and precision components [1][12]. Group 2: Key Companies and Technologies - Key companies in the semiconductor equipment sector include XinYuan Micro, which became the first listed company on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in Liaoning, and TuoJing Technology, which has developed advanced equipment that meets international standards [14][16]. - The "6+N" industrial development system has been established, with six leading companies supported by numerous ancillary firms, enhancing the overall ecosystem [16]. - The article emphasizes the technological advancements made by these companies, such as XinYuan Micro's unique position as the sole domestic supplier of high-end coating and developing machines [16][22]. Group 3: Policy and Financial Support - The development of the semiconductor industry in Liaoning has been supported by national policies and financial initiatives, including the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, which has invested heavily in the sector [22][23]. - The establishment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has provided crucial funding and resources for semiconductor companies, enabling them to expand and innovate [23][24]. - Local government initiatives have improved the business environment, facilitating the growth of semiconductor companies through supportive policies and services [28][29]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The article outlines plans for further development in the semiconductor sector, aiming to position Shenyang as a globally competitive integrated circuit equipment manufacturing base [34]. - There is a focus on enhancing the investment ecosystem and attracting more venture capital to support local semiconductor companies [32][33]. - The long-term goal is to replicate the success of the semiconductor industry across other sectors in Liaoning, fostering a broader economic transformation [34].