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A股,重大利好!
中国基金报· 2025-07-21 02:38
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a long-cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds aims to shift the focus from short-term profit-seeking to long-term stable investment, enhancing the investment logic of insurance capital [4][14][16]. Group 1: Long-Cycle Assessment Mechanism - The core value of the long-cycle assessment mechanism is to break the "long money short investment" dilemma, reshaping the investment logic of insurance capital [4][14]. - The adjustment of key indicators' assessment weights to 70% for long-cycle metrics significantly reduces the impact of short-term market fluctuations on insurance companies' profits, promoting a shift towards long-term value investment [14][15]. - The long-cycle assessment mechanism is expected to stabilize market fluctuations, introduce incremental funds, and optimize the investment ecosystem by focusing on high-dividend and technology growth sectors [14][15][16]. Group 2: Impact on Capital Market - The long-cycle assessment mechanism will enhance insurance companies' resilience to short-term investment volatility, supporting an increase in equity investment ratios and stabilizing the stock market [10][16]. - Insurance capital's entry into the market can increase the supply of long-term funds, helping to lower market volatility and guide funds towards high-potential enterprises [16][17]. - The mechanism encourages insurance funds to strengthen asset-liability management and actively seek quality long-term targets, promoting a shift from passive following to active leading in industry trends [16][17]. Group 3: Encouragement of Insurance Capital Market Entry - Recent policies have been encouraging insurance capital to enter the market, aiming to leverage its long-term stable funding advantages to support capital market stability and real economic development [19][20]. - Future policies are expected to focus on lowering risk factors for stock investments and expanding pilot programs for long-term equity investments [20][21]. - The continuous improvement of policies is anticipated to enhance the enthusiasm of insurance capital for market entry, with expectations for more encouraging measures to be introduced [21][22]. Group 4: Potential for Market Capital Injection - As of the end of 2024, the balance of commercial insurance funds is expected to be approximately 33 trillion yuan, with an actual investment ratio in A-shares around 11%, indicating significant room for growth [23][24]. - If the equity allocation increases by 10 percentage points, it could lead to an injection of approximately 3.5 trillion yuan into the market [24][25]. - The long-cycle assessment mechanism is projected to release the equity investment potential of insurance funds, particularly benefiting high-dividend and undervalued quality listed companies [25][26]. Group 5: Long-Term Investment Benefits - In a low-interest-rate environment, the long-cycle assessment mechanism is expected to enhance the long-term investment yield of insurance funds by allowing for greater allocation to equity assets [27][28]. - The mechanism encourages insurance funds to adopt a "dividend for interest" strategy, alleviating investment pressure in a low-interest environment and improving long-term investment yield levels [28][29]. - By allowing for smoother management of asset value fluctuations, the long-cycle perspective helps insurance funds focus on intrinsic asset value, reducing irrational trading caused by short-term interest rate fluctuations [29][30]. Group 6: Shift in Investment Style - The increase in insurance capital's investment ratio in A-shares is expected to promote a shift in market style towards value investment, enhancing market stability [31][32]. - Insurance funds typically adopt a "barbell" investment strategy, focusing on both high-dividend and high-growth sectors, which will benefit from the increased allocation of insurance capital [31][32][33]. - The investment style transition is likely to reduce speculative trading and increase the focus on long-term cash flow stability and sustainable dividend capabilities [33][34]. Group 7: Opportunities for Public Funds - Public funds are expected to play a crucial role as a bridge for insurance companies' equity investments, with significant business growth potential in various areas [35][36]. - The development of products that meet the investment needs of insurance funds, such as low-volatility dividend products and REITs, is anticipated to attract insurance capital [35][36]. - Customized account services and specialized products are expected to meet the specific needs of insurance funds, driving the public fund industry towards a more segmented and professional direction [36][37].