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当前股票回报是否过高
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-09-29 02:54
来源:威灵顿投资管理,Refinitiv 。数据区间:1998年1月31日至2025年8月31日。指数包括: MSCI世界指数、ICE美银全球政府债指数、ICE美银全球公司债指数、ICE美银全球高收益债指数、标 普高盛商品指数。过往业绩不代表未来表现。 三、关注图表中的偏度。具有良好回报特征的资产类别(即在上涨年份表现强劲、下跌年份相对损 失较小),如信用债,对于资产配置者尤其有价值。相比之下,大宗商品的涨跌往往更加均衡。在这种 情况下,主动管理可能有助于引入或增强投资组合的正偏度。 对于需要重点关注的领域,笔者认为,可关注延长周期的结构性增长催化剂,包括财政刺激、政策 改革以及央行潜在的降息举措。此外,关注通胀走势及跨资产相关性上升的可能性。尽管央行在缓解通 胀方面已取得实质性进展,关税也尚未引发再通胀,但仍需密切关注全球财政扩张和贸易政策等潜在催 尽管宏观和地缘政治环境充满挑战,但全球股市自年初以来依然表现强劲。从MSCI全球指数来 看,全球股票自2025年年初以来上涨约15%,延续了过去几年的强劲走势。这种持续的韧性可能会令部 分投资者感到意外,尤其是考虑到自2022年熊市结束以来全球股票的年均回报率高 ...
摩根士丹利:对市场的看法美国主导地位的减弱如何影响收益率
摩根· 2025-08-05 03:16
Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the high-yield market, highlighting that approximately 5% of companies are at risk of needing debt restructuring or capital structure adjustments due to the current interest rate environment [1][2]. Core Insights - The financial health of American households and the stock market is strong, but the high-yield market shows vulnerabilities due to outdated capital structures [1][2]. - The rapid growth of shadow banking and private credit markets, driven by monetary stimulus and low interest rates, may lead to misallocation of capital and excessive risk-taking [1][2]. - The technology sector's significant investment in data centers is projected to approach $3 trillion by 2028, presenting both opportunities and risks for the credit market, particularly in private credit [1][2]. - The blurring lines between public and private credit markets are creating new investment opportunities, as some technology infrastructure loans now resemble investment-grade loans in terms of risk and return [3]. - In a changing environment of cross-asset correlations, attention should be paid to dollar asset allocation and the stock market's response to interest rate changes, with historical data suggesting that the S&P 500 may react more significantly to rising rates [4]. - Despite the diminished diversification effect of bonds, they still play a crucial role in certain dynamics, and constructing a diversified cross-asset portfolio requires careful consideration of valuations and expected returns [4]. - The traditional 60/40 portfolio model remains relevant, particularly the 5 to 10-year fixed income segment, which is vital for long-term wealth clients due to its lower volatility and stable returns [5][6].