Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that by the end of Q3 2025, there will be a total of 519 public FOF products in the market, with a combined management scale of 193.5 billion yuan, representing a 16% increase from the previous quarter [1] - Notable growth in FOF scale has been observed among fund managers such as Fortune, China Europe, and Guangfa [1] - In terms of performance, the overall returns of equity-oriented FOFs in Q3 outperformed the average returns of similar FOFs [1] Market Trends - The average allocation of FOF investments in internal funds of the managing company stands at 52%, while the proportion of index funds continues to rise [1] - With the ongoing decline in risk-free interest rates, the market is beginning to focus on the allocation value of assets beyond stocks and bonds, suggesting that diversified asset allocation will become a significant direction for FOF development in the future [1] - In the context of increasing structural market conditions, the difficulty for actively managed funds to achieve excess returns is growing, highlighting the increasing value of index fund allocations, with passive investment emerging as another major trend in FOF development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a macroeconomic perspective in investment strategies, highlighting the need to adapt to changing economic conditions and the role of monetary and credit dynamics in asset allocation [3][6][14]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment approach combines strategic and tactical elements, where strategy is determined by long-term factors and tactics by short-term market conditions [10][15]. - The focus on "currency-credit" dynamics helps in understanding the underlying economic trends and informs asset allocation decisions [7][14]. - The manager has been proactive in asset allocation, notably increasing exposure to gold and convertible bonds ahead of market trends [3][14]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The current market environment is characterized by a lack of inflationary pressure and expectations of further monetary easing, which supports a positive outlook for various asset classes [14][15]. - The analysis indicates that the U.S. government's fiscal policies significantly impact economic conditions, necessitating close monitoring of credit expansion and fiscal deficits [7][14]. - The article discusses the potential for investment opportunities in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by favorable economic conditions and government support for technology and dividend-paying stocks [15][16]. Group 3: Tactical Opportunities - Tactical opportunities arise from market sentiment, where a shift in investor emotions can create favorable conditions for investment [10][11]. - The manager emphasizes the importance of monitoring market indicators, such as financing balances, to gauge retail investor sentiment and adjust strategies accordingly [11][15]. - The integration of various asset classes in a portfolio is guided by risk parity models, ensuring balanced risk contributions from different assets [11][15].

2020 年春，李迅雷给唐军派发了一个艰巨的课题：预测疫情拐点。 作为非流行病学专业人员，时任中泰证券金工首席的唐军有些困惑，这与投资有什么直接联系？但又很巧合， 大学期间的 唐军参加数学建模比赛 前 曾拿 2003 年非典练手，传染病传播模型 还有印象 。 唐军根据 封锁前 武汉迁出 到各省的 人数和 之后 各省上报 的确诊 人数，反推 当时 武汉感染人群数量，再根据疫情起始时间反推传播系数， 这一数据处理 上产生的效果远超模型精度本身。 最终经过测算，唐军预测对了感染高峰到来的时间。 有了经验后，美国疫情开始扩散，李迅雷又派发了一个艰巨的课题：美国能不能控住疫情？ 这一次，唐军意识到自己研究的课题，并不是与投资风马牛不相及。唐军知道人员流动性降到平时 30% 才能稳住疫情不扩散，「美国根本降不到，一定会 严重挤兑，即使医疗资源翻一倍也会挤兑。」 随后，唐军提示了做空原油，那年美油期货价格首次跌到负数。 这两次研究成果收录在李迅雷公众号，至今还能搜索到。三年后，唐军担任中泰资管组合投资部首席投资经理 ， 并开始管理公募 FOF 产品 ，李迅雷的指 导和这些与投资并不直接关联的研究，拓宽了他宏观的视野，潜移默 ...