Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased, and the easing expectation supports the aluminum price to fluctuate strongly. The main contract closed at 20,700, up 0.15%. The 08 - 09 premium was reported at 20, and the aluminum ingot continued to accumulate inventory. The spot premium remained stable. Considering the off - season effect and the suppression of terminal consumption by high prices, the previous high resistance is strong, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [8]. - The operating capacity of alumina continues to rise, while the production demand for electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, and the supply is still relatively surplus. Before the "anti - involution" policy is clearly implemented, the upside space should be carefully evaluated. If there is a high point, short - selling can be considered [8]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level. Although the off - season is approaching the second half, it still shows off - season characteristics, and the inventory continues to increase seasonally. The smelting enterprises have rich profits [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation boosts the aluminum price. The main contract price increased by 0.15% to 20,700. The 08 - 09 premium was 20, and the aluminum ingot inventory continued to accumulate. The spot premium was stable, with prices in East China, Central China, and South China reported at - 50, - 160, and - 55 respectively [8]. - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following the Shanghai aluminum price. The AD - AL negative spread was - 520. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight due to reduced new material output in the off - season and high - temperature suppression of disassembly volume. The downstream automotive industry was also in the off - season, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance. The cast aluminum market continued to operate within a range [8]. - The operating capacity of alumina increased, while the demand for electrolytic aluminum production was stable, leading to a supply surplus. Before the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, short - selling can be considered at high points [8]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained high. Although the off - season was in the second half, the inventory continued to increase seasonally. Considering the off - season effect and high - price suppression of consumption, short - selling on rebounds is recommended [8]. 2. Industry News - **Overseas Bauxite Mining Rights Changes**: On August 4, the Guinean government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over EGA - GAC's mining rights. The previous GAC mining area of 690.20 square kilometers has been granted to NMC for 25 years. EGA's annual production capacity in Guinea was 1.4 billion tons, and the mine stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year [9][10]. - **New Aluminum Recycling Plant**: Spectro Alloys' aluminum recycling plant in Rosemount, Minnesota, has been officially put into operation. The new plant covers an area of 90,000 square feet and will produce up to 120 million pounds of recycled aluminum ingots per year. It is expected to reach full - capacity production in the first quarter of 2026. UAE's EGA acquired 80% of Spectro Alloys in 2024 and plans to invest $4 billion in building a smelting plant in Oklahoma [10]. - **Mining Rights Change**: The mining rights of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shanzhou District Dayuantao Bauxite Mine have been changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons per year [10]. - **Vedanta's Q1 2026 Financial Results**: Despite strong local demand, Vedanta's quarterly profit did not meet expectations due to falling aluminum and copper prices and rising tax expenditures. In Q1 2026, the company's total revenue increased by 6.2% to 374.34 billion rupees ($4.3 billion), but the net profit decreased by 11.7% to 31.85 billion rupees [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June, the export volume was about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 206.6%. The net import in June was 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net import was about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10][11]

Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Fed's easing expectations support the rebound of aluminum prices. On the 6th, SHFE aluminum closed higher, with the main contract 2509 rising 0.76% to 20,650. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,400 to 577,553 lots, and the 08-09 spread was reported at 30. Due to uneven arrivals, the daily inventory decreased slightly, but the spot market remained weak. The purchasing power of downstream processed materials in East China was still weak. After a large buyer purchased at a discount, the pressure on holders to sell decreased slightly, and the spot premium remained stable. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following SHFE aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread reported at -485. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, demand weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum was short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate within a range following SHFE aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure. [8] - In August, the supply of bauxite showed a tightening trend, mainly due to the gradual impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of production of some suspended mines, the shortage might be limited, and the bauxite price mainly operated at the bottom. The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be considered, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by emotional changes. [8] - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season. The inventory showed a seasonal increase. The profit of smelting enterprises declined but was still substantial. Currently, the aluminum market was dominated by macro sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and the domestic policy expectations supported the sector to be strong, but the off-season continued. Short-selling opportunities could be waited for after the rebound. [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - SHFE aluminum closed higher on the 6th, with the main contract 2509 rising 0.76% to 20,650. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,400 to 577,553 lots, and the 08-09 spread was reported at 30. [8] - The daily inventory decreased slightly due to uneven arrivals, but the spot market remained weak. The purchasing power of downstream processed materials in East China was still weak. After a large buyer purchased at a discount, the pressure on holders to sell decreased slightly, and the spot premium remained stable. [8] - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following SHFE aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread reported at -485. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, demand weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum was short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate within a range following SHFE aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure. [8] - In August, the supply of bauxite showed a tightening trend, mainly due to the gradual impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of production of some suspended mines, the shortage might be limited, and the bauxite price mainly operated at the bottom. [8] - The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be considered, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by emotional changes. [8] - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season. The inventory showed a seasonal increase. The profit of smelting enterprises declined but was still substantial. [8] - Currently, the aluminum market was dominated by macro sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and the domestic policy expectations supported the sector to be strong, but the off-season continued. Short-selling opportunities could be waited for after the rebound. [8] 2. Industry News - **Overseas Bauxite Mining Right Changes**: On August 4, the Guinean government announced the establishment of Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA-GAC. The company is a public limited company wholly owned by the Guinean government, with a board of directors, legal personality, and financial and management autonomy. The 690.20-square-kilometer mining area previously occupied by GAC has been awarded to NMC for 25 years. Previously, EGA's annual production capacity in Guinea was 14 million tons, and the mine stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year. [9][10] - **New Aluminum Recycling Plant in the US**: Spectro Alloys' aluminum recycling plant in Rosemount, Minnesota, has been officially put into operation. The newly expanded plant covers an area of 90,000 square feet and will produce up to 120 million pounds of recycled aluminum ingots from scrap aluminum annually. These recycled aluminum ingots will be used for extrusion processing to make railings, window and door frames, and structural components for automobiles, ships, airplanes, trailers, etc. The plant is expected to reach full production in the first quarter of 2026. As part of its entry into the North American market, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) acquired 80% of Spectro Alloys in 2024. In addition, EGA recently announced plans to invest $4 billion in building a smelting plant in Oklahoma, which will nearly double the primary aluminum production in the US. [10] - **Change of Bauxite Mining Right in China**: The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shanzhou District Dataoyuan Bauxite Mine was changed. The mining right holder is Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd., with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The mine's mining species is bauxite, the mining method is open-pit/underground mining, the mining area is 7.7548 square kilometers, and the designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year. [10] - **Vedanta's Q1 FY2026 Results**: Vedanta's net profit in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (April - June 2025) declined. Despite strong local demand, it was difficult to offset the impact of falling aluminum and copper prices and rising tax expenditures. The company's quarterly profit did not meet expectations. Affected by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in US trade policies, the benchmark three-month aluminum and copper prices fell by 4% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively in the reporting quarter. Falling commodity prices often affect the sales prices and profits of mining companies. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company's total revenue increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 374.34 billion rupees ($4.3 billion), mainly due to the increase in aluminum and copper revenues, which increased by 7.7% and 34.6% respectively. The company's consolidated net profit decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to 31.85 billion rupees, compared with 36.06 billion rupees in the same period of the previous fiscal year. According to data compiled by the London Stock Exchange (LSEG), analysts' average expectation for Vedanta's profit was 34.83 billion rupees. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company's EBITDA increased by about 2% to 60.53 billion rupees, while tax expenditures jumped from 8.31 billion rupees a year ago to 15.96 billion rupees. Vedanta's operating profit margin remained unchanged at 21% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: According to customs data, in June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. (The above import and export data are based on customs codes 76011090 and 76011010) [10][11]