Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Expert Meeting on Hong Kong Property Sector Industry Overview - **Industry**: Hong Kong Property Sector - **Expert**: Mr. Joseph Tsang, Chairman of Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) Hong Kong Core Insights Residential Property - JLL forecasts a **5% decline** in home prices for mass units and **5-10% decline** for luxury units in 2025, primarily due to oversupply and financial pressures on developers [1][4] - JLL expects home prices to stabilize in 2026 (up or down **1-2%**) if HIBOR remains low and geopolitical shocks are absent [1][4][8] - J.P. Morgan's more optimistic forecast anticipates a **3-5% rebound** in home prices in 2026 if certain conditions are met [1][4] - Rental growth is expected to be **0-5%** in 2025 due to an influx of new talent and students [1][4] Office Market - JLL predicts **5% decline** in Grade-A office rents and **5-10% decline** in capital values in 2025, with high vacancy rates (13.2%) persisting [1][4][13] - Rising IPO activity may stimulate demand, but insufficient to reverse current trends [1][4][13] - Tenants prefer newer office buildings with ESG specifications, leading to pressure on older assets [1][4][13] Retail Sector - Retail rents and capital values are expected to drop **5-10%** in 2025, but substantial corrections have already occurred (high-street shops are **72% below peak**) [1][4][18] - JLL anticipates a stabilization of retail rents in 2026, supported by active leasing momentum [1][4][18] - Retail assets yielding **~6%** are attracting strong buyer interest, indicating a potential floor for valuations [1][4][5] Additional Considerations - **CRE Risks**: Overall debt associated with commercial real estate (CRE) risks may exceed **HK$400 billion**, with 34% classified as high risk [1][5][16] - **Mainland Chinese Buyers**: They account for **~50%** of homebuyers in urban districts, significantly influencing market dynamics [1][10] - **Government Response**: While the government is aware of the CRE situation, no comprehensive strategy has been implemented yet [1][16] Investment Recommendations - Top picks in the sector include: - **Swire Properties**: Improving China retail and potential buyback - **Link REIT**: Improving HK retail and Stock Connect - **Wharf REIC**: Stabilizing HK discretionary retail - **Henderson Land**: Stabilizing HK residential market with high yield [1][5] This summary encapsulates the key insights and forecasts regarding the Hong Kong property sector as discussed in the expert meeting, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks.

智通财经APP获悉，中原CSI(住宅售价)最新报50.78点，较上周的52.24下跌1.46点。中原地产研究部高 级联席董事杨明仪指，上周未有大型新盘开售，楼市缺乏焦点，加上台风袭港，影响二手成交。CSI连 跌两周共1.54点，但指数仍然企稳50点好淡分界线之上，预示楼价走势短期回稳，暂未见有下调迹象。 写字楼方面，CSI(写字楼售价)报点28.50点，按周跌1.19点。CSI(写字楼租金)报28.5点，按周跌1.19点。 指数长期处于睇淡区水平，预示写字楼买卖及租务市况下行方向不变。周一推出「城中学舍计划」，鼓 励市场把商厦改装为学生宿舍，长远对写字楼物业有正面支持。 杨明仪称，近日恒指突破25,000点，创逾3年半新高，有利市场气氛。中美短期内将会再进行贸易谈 判，将涉及更复杂议题，美联储下周议息，加上多个新盘部署推售，二手楼价能否突破，未来CSI走势 值得关注。 CSI(住宅租金)报57.63点，按周跌0.04点，连跌三周共0.29点。指数跌幅温和，仍然企稳50点好淡分界线 之上，预示住宅租金维持高位向好。暑期租赁旺季热潮下，租金有望进一步上升。 商铺方面，CSI(商铺售价)报42.03点，按周升1.2 ...

Group 1 - The Asia-Pacific region continues to demonstrate strong dominance in the global investment market, playing a key role in overall capital flows, with Singapore, Japan, and Hong Kong ranking among the top ten capital exporters globally [1] - In terms of cross-border capital flows, Japan is among the top five existing asset investment destinations, while Australia ranks eighth, with Japan's market activity remaining above the average level of the past five years [1] - The report indicates that the Asia-Pacific region is still the most attractive area for land and development, with seven out of the top ten markets coming from this region, and China dominating cross-border activities with an 80% share [1] Group 2 - The multifamily sector benefits from strong demand in the U.S. and has become the most favored asset class globally, while office properties remain the most sought-after investment in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by industrial and retail assets [1] - The overall economic outlook for the Asia-Pacific region remains positive, although market performances vary, with little change in economic forecasts for mainland China, Hong Kong, India, and Australia, while market sentiment has weakened in Singapore, South Korea, and Japan [1] - Southeast Asian investors are increasingly active in the Hong Kong commercial real estate market, driven by attractive asset valuations and strong demand in the education sector, with transaction volumes recovering compared to last year due to government support policies and a more accommodative interest rate environment [2]