1. 大家好，欢迎阅读本期的国际观察。今天，小锐将关注欧洲多个国家高调组建志愿联盟并派遣军队支 持乌克兰的这一重大变化。 2. 曾几何时，欧洲各国在考虑是否提供5000顶防弹头盔时，经过了近半个 月的深思熟虑，保持着谨慎的姿态。可是，现在，多个国家却主动集结军队，直面俄罗斯，这种迅速转 变的态度，简直是地缘政治格局中的一场惊天逆转。 3. 表面上看，这些举动是对俄乌战争局势的军事回应，但实质上，它早已超越了战争本身，正在引发全 球权力结构的深刻变化。 4. 在这种背景下，人民币的国际化是否会迎来前所未有的契机？为何欧洲突 然采取如此强硬的姿态与俄罗斯对抗？全球资本流动将如何改变我们日常生活的格局？这些问题都值得 我们深入探讨。 5. 多国派兵的背后，可能成为新一轮金融危机的导火索。 6. 要想理解欧洲此次军事介入的深层动机， 我们必须掌握一个基本的规律：资本天生趋向安全，避开风险。它们会流向那些安全、可预见、制度稳 定的区域。 17. 对美国来说，这是控制战略成本；但对欧洲而言，这无异于一场系统性灾难的开端。 18. 过去两 年，欧盟及其成员国已经向乌克兰提供了接近2000亿美元的援助、贷款和财政担保，然而， ...

全球资本流动与日元避险属性变化，进一步放大了汇价波动。日银加息推动国内收益率抬升，促使部分 海外资金回流，重塑全球债券配置格局，但尚未对美元资产构成显著冲击，呈现"日元回流与美元韧性 并存"的特征。值得注意的是，日元传统避险地位正面临挑战，日银政策正常化动摇了套息交易的盈利 基础，叠加财政风险担忧，其避险吸引力边际弱化。不过，由于市场在加息前已充分消化预期，此次政 策落地后未出现剧烈震荡，反而更多呈现结构性调整，短期资金在关键点位附近保持谨慎，加剧了美日 的震荡态势。 技术面与机构预判显示，美元兑日元中长期或逐步下行，但短期仍存震荡空间。瑞银此前预测，受日银 加息与美联储降息双重影响，美日到2026年6月可能跌至136，但短期受日本政局不确定性影响波动可能 加剧，建议在汇价升穿149时逢高卖出。从当前走势看，汇价在156关口附近反复拉锯，下方154.35的月 内低点构成短期支撑，上方157关口则面临阶段性抛压。动量指标显示，空头动能虽有释放，但受利差 与财政风险制约，尚未形成单边趋势，市场等待后续政策路径明确。 综合来看，美元兑日元当前的震荡格局，本质是日银加息落地后的政策消化、美日政策背离、日本财政 与货币 ...

国内热点聚焦 考研初试圆满收官 12 月 21 日 18:00，随着考试结束铃声响起，2026 年全国硕士研究生招生考试初试落下帷幕。本次考试 意义重大，为众多学子开启学术深造大门。 今年四川省共有 18.3 万名考生报名参加，共设置 82 个考点、近 6000 个标准化考场，安排近 2 万名考 务工作人员。考试期间，秩序井然，考风考纪良好，顺利实现 "平安研考" 目标。 为确保考试顺利进行，国家教育考试厅际联席会议成员单位履职尽责、通力协作，各地各高校组建工作 专班、细化职责分工，省教育考试院强化统筹协调、巡查督导、应急处突，形成全链条协同推进的组考 工作格局。 在考试安全保障方面，各地严格落实全流程安全保密要求，构建完善 "六位一体" 防作弊体系，推动人 防、技防、物防有机融合。所有考点全覆盖配备智能安检门、无线信号屏蔽设备，实现保密室实时智能 巡检和考场实时智能巡查全覆盖，实施考场内信号屏蔽与考场外无线电监测巡查 "双管控"。全省规范 自命题管理，统一试卷封装标准，全面排查化解命题、保密、封装等环节风险隐患，全力守护考试公平 公正。 除了四川，其他省份的考研情况也备受关注。例如广东省有 19.11 万考 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, despite high tariffs, China achieved a record trade surplus of $1.07 trillion, indicating a significant shift in global capital flow towards China, surpassing traditional trade dynamics [5][14][31] Group 1: Capital Flow Changes - In 2025, capital inflow into China from foreign investments exceeded trade account inflows for the first time, highlighting a shift from trade-based interactions to investment opportunities [7][10] - The perception of China as merely a manufacturing hub has changed, with global capital recognizing the country's investment potential [5][10] Group 2: Manufacturing Competitiveness - China's manufacturing competitiveness is no longer solely based on low labor costs; it is attributed to a complete industrial system and modernized production processes [19][21] - The ability to rapidly develop and mass-produce new products gives China a significant edge over Western counterparts, which often take longer for similar processes [19][21] Group 3: Global Perception Shift - The global view of China has evolved from seeing it as a "population dividend industrial country" to recognizing its advanced manufacturing capabilities and technological innovations [24][26] - International visitors are increasingly interested in China's high-tech parks and advanced factories, reflecting a shift in perception towards China's industrial strength [26][28] Group 4: New Global Dynamics - The traditional Western-dominated narrative is being challenged as China promotes a model of mutual benefit and cooperation, aligning with the interests of various nations seeking their own development paths [28][30] - The 2025 trade surplus and capital inflow signify a new global order where China's approach to trade and investment is reshaping international relations [31]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者帅可聪 北京报道 2025年12月11日，A股三大指数集体收跌，上证指数跌0.7%至3873.32点，失守3900点关口；创业板指 盘中明显跳水，从涨超1%下挫至跌逾1.4%。全市场逾4300只个股收盘飘绿，通信、地产板块跌幅居 前，摩尔线程股价逆势暴涨28%。 随着美联储如期宣布降息25个基点，隔夜美股受到明显提振，三大指数集体收涨，标普500指数涨 0.67%逼近历史最高纪录。然而，AI巨头甲骨文业绩不及预期，盘后一度大跌近12%，再度引燃市场有 关AI估值泡沫的担忧。 巨丰投顾投资顾问总监郭一鸣向《华夏时报》记者分析表示，外部市场环境传递出额外的紧缩信号与风 险警示，形成了对美联储降息利好的对冲力量。但回归A股本身，外部货币政策变化终究是外因，当前 A股市场的核心驱动力仍需落脚于国内经济基本面与企业盈利预期。 行业板块多数下跌 12月11日，A股三大指数集体小幅高开，创业板指盘初一度涨超1%。然而，午后市场风云突变，三大 指数明显走弱，深证成指、创业板指尾盘更是加速跳水，最终双双收于全天最低点位。 盘面上，31个申万一级行业板块多数下跌，仅银行板块小幅上涨0 ...

金价拉升发生在没有美国重要经济数据的周五，交易员说，缺乏经济指引让市场更依赖政策预期与情绪波动，这句话出自两位匿名交易员的即时反 馈，他们在现场电话连线中表达担忧 从时间轴上看，金价由预期推动，短线由情绪驱动，中线受制度与央行行为制约，这是一条不复杂却常被忽视的线路，政策预期、央行需求与机构 配置三者共同构成金价的中期支撑 制度层面的问题在于政策预期的模糊性与国际货币环境的联动性，面对美联储可能的降息信号，国内外资金如何配置成为制度与市场连续碰撞的场 景，这一点可在多家投行研究报告里找到重复论述 金价涨幅虽不算惊天，但中期预期发生改变，市场分析普遍认为美元走弱将削弱其中期上行动力，机构研究报告在当天午后发布的评述里详细列出 利率路径与货币政策的不确定性 央行与机构在黄金市场的角色被反复提及，观点认为央行购金与ETF增持会继续主导金价，本文查阅了中国黄金网的报告与多家国际评级机构发布 的持仓数据，呈现出的逻辑并非单一推动因素 走访几家黄金首饰门店时，店员向记者展示的是眼下的操作和库存调整，库存账单、进货单据与店员的电话记录构成他们应对价格变化的证据，店 员请求匿名以免影响生意 在交易所间，盘面上的买卖并非一直热 ...

Core Insights - Foreign investors have withdrawn over $17 billion from the Indian stock market this year, marking a significant decline compared to a net inflow of $20 billion in 2023, making India the worst-performing market in Asia for foreign investment outflows [1][2][3] - The withdrawal trend is primarily driven by external factors such as the strong dollar and internal factors including high stock market valuations and disappointing corporate earnings growth [3][4] Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - The report indicates that since July, the largest withdrawals have come from U.S. funds ($1 billion), followed by Luxembourg ($765 million) and Japan ($365 million), reflecting a broader trend of investor retreat [2] - India's allocation in global emerging market funds has dropped to 16.7%, the lowest since November 2023, while China's share has surged to 28.8%, indicating a shift in investor preferences [2] Group 2: Economic and Policy Factors - Concerns over the profitability of export-oriented sectors and macroeconomic outlook have accelerated foreign capital outflows, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs that impact investment flows and economic growth [3][4] - Changes in U.S. immigration policy regarding H-1B visas have significantly affected Indian software and service outsourcing companies, leading to increased costs and project delays, which are critical for this export sector [3] Group 3: Market Performance and Sentiment - The MSCI index forecasts a mere 5% profit growth for Indian companies by 2025, down from 8% the previous year, indicating ongoing weakness in corporate earnings [4] - The Indian rupee has depreciated over 3.7% against the dollar since 2025, diminishing the attractiveness of local assets and contributing to market pressures [4] - The Nifty 50 index has underperformed compared to regional indices for five consecutive months, marking the longest such period since 2013 [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government spends $1.2 trillion annually on debt interest, exceeding the GDP of over half the world's countries, averaging $3,500 per American to support Wall Street [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points marks the first reduction in nine months, significantly altering the global capital landscape [2][3] - The high U.S. interest rates previously attracted global capital, but the recent rate cut has led to a rapid outflow of funds seeking new investment opportunities [3] Group 2 - China has emerged as a favored destination for capital, with hedge funds rapidly increasing their purchases of Chinese stocks, as evidenced by a net inflow of $1.2 billion in June and $2.7 billion in July [5] - China's stable environment, lower asset prices compared to the U.S. and Europe, and the anchoring effect of the Belt and Road Initiative are key factors attracting foreign investment [5] - The capital influx has opened three significant doors for China: increased monetary policy autonomy, appreciation of RMB assets, and revitalization of market activity, with the A-share market surpassing 3,800 points [7] Group 3 - Despite the influx of capital, there are concerns about the domestic money supply, with M2 totaling 326 trillion yuan but only 15.74 trillion yuan available for spending, indicating a potential liquidity issue [7] - The risk of hot money inflating asset prices and creating bubbles is highlighted, especially if the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies fluctuate [7] - Investors are advised to focus on tangible investments in manufacturing and Belt and Road projects, while being cautious of short-term high-yield financial products that may pose risks [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has quietly lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the first interest rate cut since December 2024, driven by persistent weakness in U.S. employment data and a focus on maximizing employment over price stability [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Global Financial Markets - The Fed's rate cut is interpreted as a "preventive rate cut," indicating a cautious outlook on future economic growth [3]. - The decision is expected to influence global capital flows and the value of the Chinese yuan, potentially leading to reduced depreciation pressure on the yuan and affecting the attractiveness of dollar-denominated Chinese assets [5][13]. - Historical data shows that adjustments in China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) typically lag behind Fed policy changes by 3-6 months, although recent actions have demonstrated the People's Bank of China's flexibility in responding to global monetary policy shifts [5][7]. Group 2: Differences in Mortgage Systems - The U.S. mortgage market primarily features 30-year fixed-rate loans, meaning the Fed's rate cut will directly benefit new homebuyers by locking in lower monthly payments [6]. - In contrast, China's housing credit system relies on floating rates based on LPR, which means existing mortgage rates will not be immediately affected by the Fed's actions and will only adjust at the beginning of the following year [6][12]. Group 3: Potential Effects on Chinese Housing Market - The anticipated reduction in LPR could significantly lower mortgage costs, thereby boosting market confidence and stimulating housing demand [13][15]. - A specific example illustrates that a 25 basis point reduction in LPR could save a borrower approximately 9 million yuan in interest over 30 years, highlighting the importance of such adjustments for household financial planning [16][20]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - There is a growing expectation for a downward adjustment in LPR, driven by recent policy signals indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [14][15]. - The upcoming LPR announcement on September 22 is highly anticipated, with predictions that some cities may see first-time home loan rates drop below 3% [15].

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing shifts in global capital markets, particularly the contrasting behaviors of foreign investments in U.S. and Chinese bonds, highlighting a financial battle without direct confrontation [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds - U.S. Treasury yields have reached 5.5%-5.7%, significantly higher than China's three-year government bond yield of 2.35%, attracting global capital to the U.S. [5][6]. - In the first half of 2023, foreign holdings of Chinese government bonds decreased by approximately 80 billion yuan, with some of this capital flowing into U.S. bonds [7][11]. - The U.S. faced a potential debt default in June 2023, which heightened market fears but did not deter capital inflow due to the allure of high yields [10][15]. Group 2: Chinese Bonds - In 2024, foreign net inflows into the Chinese bond market reached 41.6 billion USD, indicating a recovery in global confidence in the Chinese economy [11]. - By the end of 2024, foreign institutions held 4.3983 trillion yuan in Chinese interbank market bonds, reflecting a growing interest despite previous reductions in holdings [11][14]. - The Chinese government is diversifying its foreign exchange reserves and reducing reliance on single assets, which is part of a broader strategy to enhance stability and predictability in its financial markets [14][19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the importance of three key factors: interest rates, stability, and expectations, which influence investment decisions in the context of geopolitical risks [14]. - The financial landscape is characterized by a continuous flow of capital, with the potential for shifts in investment strategies as conditions evolve [18][19]. - The future of global capital markets will depend on the ability of economies to maintain resilience and achieve mutual benefits through openness [19][20].