组件出货持续增长、分布式+储能+支架贡献增益：25Q3 公司组件出货约19-20GW, 测算单瓦亏损约5-6 分，环比略改善。公司分布式系统持续出货，我们预计持续贡献正向盈利；储能出货约1GWh+，保持 正盈利，我们预计Q4 有望出货5GWh，全年出货8-10GWh、出货高增。支架出货约2GW，贡献正盈 利。光伏反内卷持续推进，后续价格有望修复。 事件：公司25 年Q1-Q3 营收499.7 亿元，同比-20.9%，归母净利润-42亿元，同比-396.2%，扣非净利 润-43.1 亿元，同比-303.3%，毛利率5.1%，同比-7.4pct，归母净利率-8.4%，同比-7.1pct；其中25 年Q3 营收189.1亿元， 同环比-6.3 ％ /+13.1 ％ ， 归母净利润-12.8 亿元， 同环比+6.5%/+19.7％，扣非净利 润-13.6 亿元，同环比+7.4%/+14.1％，毛利率4.5%，同环比-5pct/0pct，归母净利率-6.8%，同环比 0pct/+2.8pct。 风险提示：竞争加剧，政策变动超预期等。 费用有效控制、资本开支持续收缩：公司25 年Q1-Q3 期间费用59.1 亿元，同比- ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·光伏设备 天合光能（688599） 2025 年三季报点评：组件出货环增，储能维 持盈利、出货有望高增 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 113,411 | 80,282 | 75,648 | 100,119 | 118,781 | | 同比（%） | 33.34 | (29.21) | (5.77) | 32.35 | 18.64 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,526.88 | (3,443.22) | (4,053.07) | 715.01 | 2,404.90 | | 同比（%） | 50.14 | (162.30) | (17.71) | 117.64 | 236.34 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.54 | (1.58) | (1.86) | 0.33 | 1.10 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 8.76 | (14.06) | ( ...

Core Viewpoint - Trina Solar reported a significant decline in revenue and a shift to net losses in the first half of 2025, with a focus on improving profitability through strategic adjustments in its business segments [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 31.056 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.72%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 2.918 billion yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [1] - Q2 2025 revenue was 16.721 billion yuan, down 32.34% year-on-year but up 16.64% quarter-on-quarter; net loss for Q2 was 1.598 billion yuan, also reflecting a year-on-year shift from profit to loss [1] Business Segments - **Module Business**: In H1 2025, module shipments exceeded 32 GW with a gross margin of -2.5%, down 13.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to falling module prices. Q2 is expected to see a sequential increase in shipments, with a narrowing of losses per watt due to rising prices during the domestic rush [2] - **Energy Storage Business**: The energy storage segment has made significant strides in overseas markets, with Q2 expected to show substantial shipment growth and a return to profitability. The company is expanding its global service network, establishing over 10 service centers in more than 10 countries [2] - **Other Businesses**: The mounting support structure shipments reached 3.5 GW in H1 2025, showing continued growth year-on-year, while the distributed system business is transitioning to a smart energy 2.0 strategy, aiming to become a provider of smart energy solutions and operations [2] Cash Flow and Expenses - The net cash flow from operating activities in H1 2025 was approximately 1.8 billion yuan, showing significant improvement due to reduced inventory levels compared to the previous year. Q2 2025 period expenses were 1.78 billion yuan, with a period expense ratio of 10.6%, indicating optimization [2] Future Outlook - The ongoing trend of price recovery in the photovoltaic sector is expected to improve module profitability as recent bidding prices from major power companies have increased. The energy storage business is rapidly expanding across six major regional markets, with cumulative shipments exceeding 12 GWh and improving profitability expected each quarter [3] - The company aims to transition from a photovoltaic manufacturer to a comprehensive provider of photovoltaic and energy storage smart energy solutions, with system solutions and digital energy services contributing to profitability [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and a shift to a net loss in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 31.056 billion yuan, down 27.72% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 2.918 billion yuan [2][5]. - The company is undergoing a business transformation that is beginning to show results, particularly in improving operating cash flow, which reached approximately 1.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a substantial improvement compared to the previous year [10]. - The photovoltaic module business faced challenges with a gross margin of -2.5% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling module prices, but there are expectations for a recovery in profitability as prices stabilize [10]. - The energy storage segment has shown significant growth, particularly in overseas markets, with expectations for a substantial increase in shipments and a return to profitability in the second quarter of 2025 [10]. - The company is transitioning from a photovoltaic product manufacturer to a comprehensive provider of photovoltaic and energy storage solutions, which is expected to contribute positively to future profitability [10]. Financial Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 31.056 billion yuan, with a net loss of 2.918 billion yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [2][5]. - The operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was approximately 1.8 billion yuan, showing a significant improvement due to reduced inventory levels [10]. - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability as the photovoltaic market stabilizes and the energy storage business continues to expand [10].