证券研究报告·行业点评报告·保险Ⅱ 保险Ⅱ行业点评报告 保险行业 11 月保费：产寿单月保费增速均有 改善，继续看好寿险开门红表现 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：长端利率趋势性下行；新单增长不及预期。 2025 年 12 月 27 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 曹锟 执业证书：S0600524120004 caok@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 25% 2024/12/27 2025/4/27 2025/8/26 2025/12/25 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 11 月单月人身险公司保费降幅收窄，继续看好 2026 年负债端增长。1） 2025 年 1-11 月人身险原保费 44206 亿元，同比+9.2%，规模保费 49969 亿元，同比+8.4%。2）11 月单月人身险公司原保费规模达 1548 亿元， 同比-2.4%，降幅较 10 月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a decline in the premium scale of life insurance companies in October, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, attributed to a shift in focus towards preparations for the 2026 "opening red" campaign [1][2] - For the period from January to October 2025, the original premium of life insurance reached 42,519 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, while the total premium was 48,010 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that the market demand remains strong, with the expected growth in new single premiums due to the attractiveness of insurance products compared to bank deposits [2][5] Group 2 - In October, the health insurance premium showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.5%, although the growth rate decreased by 2.8 percentage points compared to September [3] - The health insurance sector's share reached 21% by the end of October, up 0.4 percentage points from the end of September, indicating a positive trend in the market [3] - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission's recent guidelines are expected to stimulate growth in the health insurance market by supporting various product developments [3] Group 3 - The property insurance sector experienced a year-on-year decline of 5.5% in October, with both auto and non-auto insurance premiums decreasing [4] - The auto insurance premium growth turned negative in October, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, influenced by a high base from the previous year [4] - Non-auto insurance premiums also saw a decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.4% in October, reflecting pressures from regulatory changes and market conditions [4] Group 4 - The report notes improvements in both the liability and asset sides of the insurance companies, with significant upward potential in valuations [5] - The anticipated optimization of liability costs due to a shift in product offerings and a potential recovery in long-term interest rates could alleviate pressure on investment returns [5] - The insurance sector is currently undervalued, with estimated valuations for 2025 ranging from 0.55 to 0.94 times PEV and 1.07 to 2.00 times PB, indicating a historical low [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Insights - In October 2025, the premium income for life insurance companies decreased, but the pre-sale for the "opening red" period is progressing steadily, indicating a positive outlook for new policy premium growth [5] - The total original premium for life insurance from January to October 2025 reached 425.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, while the scale premium was 480.10 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates that market demand remains strong, with the attractiveness of insurance products still evident compared to bank deposits, supporting optimistic expectations for new policy premium growth [5] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - In October 2025, the original premium scale for life insurance companies was 149.1 billion yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year, with the decline attributed to companies focusing on preparations for the 2026 "opening red" period [5] - The new investment contributions from policyholders increased by 2% year-on-year, with unit-linked insurance seeing a 17% increase [5] Health Insurance - Health insurance premiums in October 2025 increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with a total year-to-date increase of 2.3% [5] - The report notes that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission's recent guidelines are expected to stimulate growth in the health insurance market [5] Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums in October 2025 decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, with both auto and non-auto insurance experiencing declines [5] - The report highlights that the growth in auto insurance premiums is expected to be supported by the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles [5] Financial Performance - The report indicates that both liabilities and assets are continuously improving, with significant upward potential in valuations [5] - The estimated valuation for the insurance sector as of November 28, 2025, is between 0.55-0.94 times PEV and 1.07-2.00 times PB, which is considered historically low [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the health insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [6][12]. Core Insights - The recent "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Health Insurance" released by the regulatory authority marks a significant policy support for the health insurance sector, suggesting a favorable environment for growth [3][4]. - The report identifies four major categories of health insurance products: commercial medical insurance, long-term care insurance, disability income loss insurance, and critical illness insurance, each with specific development policies [4][5]. - The integration of health insurance with health management and the health industry is emphasized, promoting a comprehensive service system that includes prevention, management, and coverage [4]. - The report highlights the potential for health insurance products to experience a second wave of growth due to low interest rates and healthcare reforms, with commercial medical insurance expected to become a key product [6][7]. Summary by Sections Health Insurance Product Categories - The report categorizes health insurance into four types: 1. Commercial medical insurance: Actively developed with a focus on comprehensive coverage and risk matching 2. Long-term care insurance: Strongly promoted, emphasizing cash benefits and care services 3. Disability income loss insurance: Strongly promoted with an expanded coverage base 4. Critical illness insurance: Steadily developed with updates based on disease spectrum changes [4]. Policy Support and Innovations - The report outlines new policy measures, including: 1. Allowing well-rated insurers to offer dividend-type long-term health insurance 2. Supporting personal account-based long-term medical insurance 3. Encouraging innovative collaborations between insurance and pharmaceutical companies 4. Promoting group health insurance development [5]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that health insurance products will benefit from a combination of low interest rates and evolving customer needs, leading to increased focus on protection-oriented products [6][7]. - Key companies recommended for investment include China Life, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, and Sunshine Insurance, with a suggestion to pay attention to China Taiping [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the health insurance sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [6]. Core Insights - The recent "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Health Insurance" released by the regulatory authority marks a significant policy support for the health insurance sector, suggesting a favorable environment for growth [3][4]. - The report identifies four major categories of health insurance products: commercial medical insurance, long-term care insurance, disability income loss insurance, and critical illness insurance, each with specific development goals [4]. - The integration of health insurance with health management and the health industry is emphasized, promoting a comprehensive service system that includes prevention, management, and coverage [4]. - The report highlights the potential for health insurance products to experience a second wave of growth due to low interest rates and healthcare reforms, with commercial medical insurance expected to become a key product [6]. Summary by Sections Health Insurance Development - The report outlines the classification and policy positioning of health insurance products, advocating for a diversified and comprehensive coverage system [4]. - It stresses the importance of enhancing the sustainability of health insurance through digital applications and dynamic actuarial adjustments [4]. Regulatory Environment - The report discusses new regulatory measures allowing well-rated insurers to offer dividend-type long-term health insurance and supports the development of personal account-based long-term medical insurance [5]. - It also encourages innovative collaborations between insurance and pharmaceutical companies to enhance product offerings and payment methods [5]. Market Opportunities - The report suggests that the current low interest rate environment and ongoing healthcare reforms create a conducive backdrop for the growth of health insurance products, particularly commercial medical insurance [6]. - It recommends several key companies in the insurance sector, including China Life, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and others, as potential investment opportunities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Health Insurance" by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) is expected to benefit the long-term development of health insurance, improving the investment ecology for insurance funds in a persistently low interest rate environment. The implementation of new standards is anticipated to enhance the profitability elasticity of insurance companies as stock holdings increase [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Highlights - The policy supports the development of dividend-type long-term health insurance, allowing well-rated insurance companies to engage in this business, which has seen improvements in pricing standards and consumer protection [3]. - The introduction of "personal account-style long-term medical insurance" emphasizes the accumulation of personal funds to cover out-of-pocket expenses, aiming to alleviate financial pressure on residents' medical insurance funds [4]. - The policy encourages the development of commercial insurance payment functions to reduce the burden on basic medical insurance and support the innovation of drugs and medical devices [5]. Group 2: Industry Development Opportunities - The policy promotes data sharing and collaboration across industries to enhance the efficiency of commercial health insurance claims [6]. - Support is provided for health insurance companies to integrate health management services into their products, potentially creating a competitive advantage in the market [7][8]. - New opportunities are anticipated for long-term care insurance, with provisions for converting life insurance benefits into care expenses and addressing various care needs [9].

Core Viewpoint - The return of participating health insurance marks a significant shift in China's insurance market, driven by regulatory support and the need for product diversification in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2][4]. Group 1: Return of Participating Health Insurance - Participating health insurance is making a comeback after 22 years, with regulatory support aimed at enhancing the growth potential of the health insurance market [1][2]. - The previous halt in the sale of participating critical illness insurance in 2003 was due to sales misconduct and management challenges, but the current regulatory environment encourages its return [2][3]. - The reintroduction aligns with the trend of floating yield insurance, which is seen as a necessary step for the transformation of personal insurance products in China [4][5]. Group 2: Floating Yield Insurance Development - Floating yield insurance, which includes participating, universal, and investment-linked insurance, is becoming a key focus for the industry as it adapts to low-interest rates [3][5]. - The maximum guaranteed interest rate for personal insurance products has been reduced from 4.025% to 2.0% over the past six years, indicating a shift towards floating yield products [5][6]. - Companies are increasingly adjusting their product structures to enhance the proportion of floating yield products, particularly participating insurance, to meet market demands [6][7]. Group 3: Market Trends and Company Strategies - Major insurance companies, such as China Life and China Pacific Insurance, have reported significant growth in participating insurance, with it accounting for over 50% of new premium income in some channels [6][7]. - The industry is facing challenges related to interest rate spreads, prompting companies to focus on controlling liability costs and transitioning to participating insurance as a strategic response [6][7]. - Global insurance trends show that companies often shift towards products that transfer risk to customers during periods of declining interest rates, a strategy that is being mirrored in the Chinese market [7].