2025 年 8 月 24 日 公司研究 产销双增驱动营收大幅增长，部分产品降价影响上半年利润表现 ——仙鹤股份（603733.SH）2025 年半年报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：25.89 元 相关研报 营收利润双增，广西、湖北基地的竞争优势 将逐渐凸显——仙鹤股份（603733.SH)2024 年三季报点评（2024-10-30） 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 分析师：吴子倩 执业证书编号：S0930525070004 021-52523872 wuziqian@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.06 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 182.78 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 14.31/26.60 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 29.17% | 股价相对走势 -10% 11% 32% 52% 73% 08/24 11/24 02/25 05/25 仙鹤股份 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

该行估计FY25公司造纸销量2,100万吨+，同比+10%，过去玖龙专注箱瓦纸，2024年市占率近30%，近 几年公司战略重心为：扩浆纸品类+强化原料布局，产业链一体化增厚超额利润。据公司公告，FY22- 25公司核心聚焦广西+湖北新基地，扩产重心在纸浆、及配套造纸，FY25公司投产120万吨白卡纸、60 万吨文化纸，175万吨化学浆、60万吨化机浆，截至FY25，该行估算公司造纸、纸浆(含再生浆)产能超 2,300万吨、500万吨，对应2021-25年产能增速CAGR在8%、30%+。往前看，公司1HFY26仍有120万吨 白卡纸、70万吨文化纸、70万吨化机浆拟投放，至2025年末公司纸+浆产能突破3,000万吨，该行估计 FY26公司销量延续小幅增长，产品结构继续优化。 中金发布研报称，考虑到玖龙纸业(02689)自制浆成本优势超预期，上调FY25-26年业绩25%、49%至18 亿元、25亿元，引入FY27年25亿元，对应P/B为0.5x、0.4x、0.4x;该行维持跑赢行业评级，上调目标价 33%至6.0港元，目标价对应P/B为0.5x、0.5x、0.5x，隐含11%上行空间。公司发布盈利预告，预计 ...

Core Viewpoint - 中金上调玖龙纸业FY25-26年业绩预期，主要因自制浆成本控制超预期，预计FY25盈利21-23亿元，同比增加165%至190% [1] Group 1: Performance and Financials - FY25业绩上调25%至18亿元，FY26上调49%至25亿元，FY27引入25亿元 [1] - 目标价上调33%至6.0港元，隐含11%上行空间 [1] - FY25归母净利润预计17-19亿元，同比增加126%至153% [1] Group 2: Production and Market Strategy - FY25造纸销量预计2100万吨，同比增长10% [2] - 公司战略重心为扩浆纸品类及强化原料布局，预计FY25投产120万吨白卡纸、60万吨文化纸、175万吨化学浆、60万吨化机浆 [2] - 预计到2025年末，纸+浆产能将突破3000万吨 [2] Group 3: Cost Management and Market Conditions - 业绩超预期的核心在于自制浆成本控制及动力煤价格下跌 [3] - 预计2025年下半年煤价环比修复，需关注自制浆成本变化对利润的影响 [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Debt Management - FY25资本开支预计在130亿元以上，FY26资本开支可能仍偏高 [4] - 需关注公司负债率变化及最新投产规划 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of global supply shocks and changes in supply-demand dynamics in the European and American markets on domestic pulp prices in China, highlighting the long-term benefits for integrated pulp and paper manufacturers with upstream forest resources and green energy capabilities [1]. Group 1: Domestic Pulp Price Dynamics - Domestic pulp prices are closely linked to overseas markets, with global supply and demand primarily driving domestic prices. The demand for commodity pulp accounts for less than 40% of total wood pulp demand, with softwood pulp making up 35% and hardwood pulp 55%, which has seen rapid growth in recent years [2]. - China has become the largest buyer in the global market, increasing its market share from 12% to 44% over the past 20 years, giving it significant bargaining power. The fluctuation in domestic wood pulp demand and the rising self-sufficiency in pulp production also impact global commodity pulp demand [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Price Influences - Since 2017, an average of 2 million tons of pulp capacity has been permanently shut down each year, with supply reductions expected to exceed 2 million tons annually post-2020 due to market factors, strikes, equipment failures, and natural disasters. The rising costs of wood pulp in Europe and America have widened the price gap between softwood and hardwood pulp [3]. - The structural changes in pulp usage are expected to lower long-term average costs, with hardwood pulp demand increasing by 10 percentage points to 74%, and the use of non-wood pulp materials like bamboo pulp rising to 12.1% in domestic life paper production [3]. Group 3: Cost Structure and Future Trends - The cost curve for pulp production is primarily determined by wood costs, with eucalyptus becoming more prevalent and driving down hardwood costs. However, domestic real estate demand is suppressing wood prices, which may lead to a tightening supply-demand balance and potential price increases [4]. - Logistics costs account for 10-20% of total costs, and leading pulp manufacturers can optimize costs through strategic location choices. Energy costs represent 15-20%, with top manufacturers able to sell surplus electricity [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the paper industry [4]. Core Insights - In the short term, the report anticipates an increase in pulp costs and prices due to overseas supply shocks and changes in the supply-demand dynamics in the European and American markets. In the long term, the cost of domestic pulp is expected to decrease due to changes in the pulp structure, benefiting leading integrated pulp and paper manufacturers with upstream forest resources and green energy [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading integrated pulp and paper manufacturers, such as Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., Wuzhou Special Paper, Bohui Paper, Shanying International, and Nine Dragons Paper, are expected to benefit from the full industry chain resource layout and operational advantages [7]. Domestic Pulp Prices and Global Supply-Demand - Domestic pulp prices are closely linked to overseas markets, with global supply and demand primarily driving domestic pulp prices. In 2024, domestic consumption of broadleaf pulp, softwood pulp, chemical pulp, and unbleached pulp is projected to be 2,353, 826, 656, and 95 thousand tons, respectively [9][11]. Supply Shocks and Price Impact - Supply shocks have significantly impacted short-term pulp prices, with an average of approximately 2 million tons of capacity permanently shut down annually since 2017. The report notes that supply disruptions are influenced by market factors, strikes, natural disasters, and equipment failures [76][79]. Long-term Cost Structure Changes - Changes in the pulp structure are expected to lower the long-term cost base in China. The report highlights that the price gap between softwood and broadleaf pulp has widened, with broadleaf pulp's demand share increasing by 10 percentage points to 74% [4][103]. Cost Curve Changes and Pricing - The cost curve is primarily determined by wood costs, with logistics and energy costs also playing significant roles. The report indicates that logistics costs account for 10-20% and energy costs for 15-20% of total costs, with leading pulp manufacturers optimizing costs through strategic location layouts [5][29].

Summary of Conference Call on Investment Opportunities in the Paper Industry Industry Overview - The overall operating rate of the paper industry is below 2018 levels, with white paper down approximately 20%, household paper down about 19%, and packaging paper down 10-13% reflecting weak current demand [1][2] - The concentration of the paper industry is increasing, with outdated capacity mainly concentrated in corrugated paper, household paper, and some boxboard paper, accounting for about 10% [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments - Leading companies like Jiulong and Shanying are implementing price increases through intensive price notices, with expected continuation of this trend due to synergistic effects [1][3][12] - The double glue paper market is experiencing downward price pressure due to new capacity, but prices are expected to stabilize and recover from late August to September [1][5] - The white card paper market is facing significant impacts from new capacity, with prices at their lowest in five to ten years; large manufacturers are maintaining profitability through integrated pulp and paper operations [1][5] - The corrugated box market is nearing the end of new capacity investments, with demand still growing, and price increases observed at the end of July, improving gross margins [1][6] Future Changes and Regulations - The new national standard to be implemented in May 2025 will impose limits on paper energy consumption, particularly tightening limits for box and corrugated paper, which may accelerate the exit of outdated capacity [1][8] - Historical experiences indicate that the implementation of mandatory standards can lead to significant price increases and improved profit expectations for companies [1][8][9] Market Dynamics - The supply-demand situation in the domestic paper industry has worsened, with excess supply and significant impacts from imported paper [2] - The profitability of small manufacturers is declining, with many operating below the breakeven point, and the pressure from new capacity remains [5][10] - Large enterprises are expected to enhance their collaborative effects and cost advantages through integrated operations, which will further pressure small manufacturers [12] Administrative Measures and Their Impact - Previous administrative interventions have led to profit recovery but did not significantly increase capital expenditures (CAPEX) [9] - The current economic environment and macro background are affecting the pace of implementing new standards, but the enforcement of these standards is anticipated [8][9][11] Conclusion - The paper industry is facing a challenging environment with low operating rates and significant pressure from new capacities and imports. However, leading companies are expected to benefit from price increases and improved profitability through collaborative efforts and regulatory changes aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [1][7][12]

Group 1: Packaging Paper Industry - From June 26, some paper manufacturers in Shandong started a new round of maintenance, exacerbating supply-demand conflicts in the packaging paper industry during the traditional off-season [1] - The packaging paper market, represented by corrugated and boxboard paper, continued its downward trend from the second half of 2024, with market average prices showing a decline both month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - Analysts indicate that the main reason for the difficulty in halting the decline in the packaging paper industry is the prominent supply-demand imbalance, with increased supply from new production capacity and weakened market demand due to a significant drop in export orders [1] Group 2: Cultural Paper Market - The cultural paper market also exhibited a "more declines than increases" trend in the first half of the year, with double offset paper prices overall declining and reaching near two-year lows [2] - The decline in terminal consumption and fluctuating external conditions have led to weak demand for double offset paper, resulting in frequent price fluctuations and market averages falling below expectations [2] - The dual pressure of prominent supply-demand imbalance and declining costs has led listed paper companies to focus on pulp-paper integration and digital transformation to reshape the competitive landscape [2] Group 3: Company Developments - Shandong Sun Paper Industry plans significant investments in 2025, with multiple projects in its Nanning base, including high-end packaging paper production lines and various pulp production lines, set to enter trial production in the fourth quarter of 2025 [3] - Shandong Huatai Paper has successfully launched China's first "industry brain" for paper making, utilizing AI to achieve full-process digitalization and intelligence from raw material procurement to production, sales, logistics, and finance [3] - Analysts predict that the overall oversupply in the packaging and cultural paper industries will remain unchanged, with expectations of continued price competition and low market prices in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, as a leading player in the specialty paper industry, is expanding its production capacity and diversifying its product offerings, which is expected to enhance its revenue and profitability in the coming years [2][4][12]. Company Overview - The company has a total designed production capacity of 2.134 million tons per year, with key products including food packaging materials (780,000 tons/year) and glassine paper (210,000 tons/year) [3][18]. - The company has recently completed new production lines, including a 600,000 tons/year industrial packaging materials line in Hubei and a 10,000 tons/year digital transfer paper line in Jiangxi, which will further enhance its product supply capabilities [4][18]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly due to the integration of acquired companies and the ramp-up of production capacity, with a notable increase in net profit expected [4][5]. - As of March 2025, the company's total assets were 116.84 billion, with total debt at 68.01 billion, indicating a high debt level and financial leverage [3][10]. Market Environment - The specialty paper market is experiencing pressure on sales prices due to increased competition and capacity expansion, particularly in the food packaging segment, which is affected by the decline in white cardboard prices [12][13]. - The demand for food packaging paper is supported by trends in the restaurant and takeaway sectors, driven by policies promoting eco-friendly packaging [13][14]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to the construction and operation of new projects, including a significant investment in a chemical pulp project and a public terminal project, which have long construction periods and uncertain operational outcomes [6][21]. - The company is also exposed to fluctuations in wood pulp prices and foreign exchange risks, as it continues to rely on imported wood pulp for its production [6][15]. Future Outlook - The company maintains a stable credit rating outlook, reflecting its strong market position and ongoing capacity expansion efforts [7]. - The overall industry is expected to see continued growth in production, but demand recovery remains uncertain, leading to potential supply-demand imbalances [12][15].

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively enhancing its operational efficiency and competitiveness through digital transformation and strategic projects in response to challenges in the paper and chemical industries. Group 1: Digital Transformation and Operational Efficiency - The company launched the "Industry Brain" project in April 2023, which is expected to improve production capacity by 8.57%, product quality by 7.6%, production efficiency by 5.8%, and transportation efficiency by 15% during its trial run in 2024 [2] - The "Industry Brain" integrates five major models covering the entire process from raw material procurement to production, sales, logistics, and finance, aiming to create a smart business model in the paper industry [2][3] - The project aims to reduce reliance on manual experience and enable rapid adjustments in production parameters, facilitating flexible production [2] Group 2: Strategic Projects and Market Positioning - The company has completed the construction of a 700,000-ton chemical wood pulp project, which is expected to enhance product scale, cost, and quality advantages, while ensuring raw material supply [3] - The company is focusing on integrating pulp and paper production to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations and align with carbon neutrality trends [4] - The company is transitioning towards high-end cultural paper and specialty paper, with successful product development in various new categories following the relocation and renovation of its subsidiary [5] Group 3: Future Plans and Industry Position - The company plans to accelerate the transformation of research achievements and promote the advancement of Industry 4.0 in the paper sector by 2025 [3] - The company aims to extend its salt chemical and fine chemical industry chains, enhancing upstream resource development and downstream new product production to improve profitability in the chemical sector [5]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.27 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 billion yuan, up 51.2% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a decline in net profit in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, attributed to price decreases and impairment impacts, although there was a marginal improvement in profitability in Q1 2025 [1] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 was 15.5%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 9.8%, up 2 percentage points [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 190 million yuan, down 33.7% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 2.99 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, with a net profit of 240 million yuan, down 12.1% [1] - The gross profit margin in Q4 2024 decreased to 12.8%, down 5.2 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 6.2%, down 5.8 percentage points [1] Volume and Price Dynamics - The company achieved a sales volume of 1.223 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, benefiting from capacity release in Hubei and Guangxi projects [2] - The average selling price per ton in 2024 was approximately 8,400 yuan, a decrease of 400 yuan, while the net profit per ton (including investment income) was about 820 yuan, an increase of 140 yuan [2] - It is estimated that the selling price per ton in Q1 2025 will decline compared to 2024 due to market competition [2] Project Developments - The Hubei and Guangxi projects began operations in 2024, with significant production outputs contributing to the company's growth [3] - The Guangxi base produced 100,000 tons of wood pulp and 28,700 tons of specialty paper, while the Hubei base produced 59,800 tons of wood pulp and 93,400 tons of specialty paper [3] - The company plans to expand the Guangxi project in 2025, adding 600,000 tons of pulp and 700,000 tons of specialty paper capacity, enhancing its production capabilities [3] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.2 billion yuan, 15.4 billion yuan, and 18 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 29%, 16%, and 17% respectively [4] - Projected net profits for the same period are 1.19 billion yuan, 1.38 billion yuan, and 1.59 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 19%, 16%, and 16% [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its management and manufacturing advantages, as well as a comprehensive product matrix [4]