简评 CMR 维持两位数增长，即时零售取得阶段成果。本季度淘天集团、饿了么与飞猪完成战略整合，组建 阿里巴巴中国电商集团，中国电商集团本季度实现营收1400.72 亿元，同比增长9.71%，经调整EBITA 383.89 亿元，同比降低21.35%；其中CMR 收入892.52 亿元，同比增长10.07%，连续两个季度实现双位 数增长。 本季度末阿里加码即时零售投入，对主业利润的影响初步体现，但也快速取得阶段成果。8 月整体即时 零售月度活跃买家数达3亿，日订单峰值达1.2 亿单，周日均订单量达8000 万单，8 月前三周，即时零售 带动淘宝App 月度活跃买家同比增长25%。云智能集团，本季度营收333.98 亿元，同比增长25.80%，其 中AI 相关收入连续8 个季度三位数同比增长，本季度经调整EBITA29.54亿元，同比增长26.40%，对应 利润率8.84%，AI 需求的强劲增长带动对计算、存储等其他公共云服务的需求。AIDC 方面，本季度实 现营收347.41 亿元，同比增长18.60%，经调整EBITA-0.59亿元，亏损同环比大幅收窄，接近盈亏平 衡。其他（All Others）收入为585 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock price fell approximately 8% after the earnings report, which showed a 7% year-on-year revenue growth that did not meet expectations, despite a significant increase in net profit. Morgan Stanley believes that the market's expectations for Alibaba Cloud were too high, but the growth logic remains solid and monetization capabilities are continuously improving [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Alibaba's Q4 revenue growth of 7% was below market expectations, while net profit saw a substantial year-on-year increase [1]. - The actual adjusted EBITA profit for the quarter was 2.42 billion, with a profit margin decline of 1.9 percentage points, which was worse than market expectations by 1.5 percentage points [2]. - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on Alibaba with a target price of $180, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [1][3]. Group 2: Cloud Business Insights - The decline in Alibaba's stock is attributed to the market's overly optimistic expectations of a 20% growth in Alibaba Cloud, while the actual growth was 18%, aligning with Morgan Stanley's predictions [2]. - AI-related product revenue has shown triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters, indicating strong investment appeal [2][3]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 22% revenue growth for Alibaba Cloud in Q1 FY2026, which could act as a catalyst for stock price recovery [3]. Group 3: E-commerce Business Performance - Alibaba's Taobao Tmall Group (TTG) customer management revenue (CMR) grew by 12% in Q4, surpassing analyst expectations of 9% [4]. - CMR growth is expected to continue leading GMV growth for at least two more quarters, driven by a 0.6% service fee implementation and increased marketing penetration [5]. - The strategy involves embedding AI features into the Taobao Tmall platform to enhance user engagement and frequency of use [5]. Group 4: Valuation and Shareholder Returns - Alibaba has repurchased approximately $11.99 billion in stock over the past 12 months and announced a dividend of $2 per American Depositary Share for FY2025, totaling $4.6 billion in dividends [6]. - The expected P/E ratio for Alibaba in FY2026 is only 12 times, while Morgan Stanley's target price implies a 16 times P/E ratio for FY2027, indicating a reasonable valuation range [7].