国产算力&英伟达 Groq 的重要性 20251230 摘要 字节跳动预计 2026 年日均 Token 消耗量将大幅增长至 400 万亿，较 2025 年底的 50 万亿有显著提升，预示着对算力需求的激增，但实际算 力卡消耗量预计增长 3 至 4 倍，需关注参数优化影响。 由于英伟达老款算力卡停产，字节跳动将增加对国产算力卡的采购，尤 其是华为升腾和寒武纪的新款卡。尽管 H200 优先用于训练及外部推理， 对内推理需求将主要依赖国产卡。 市场传言字节跳动向华为下单 400 亿元采购量可能偏低，预计明年其国 产算力卡总采购额至少在六七百亿元左右，但华为升腾在字节内部表现 一般，寒武纪等其他国产厂商份额有望增加。 国产算力发展趋势确定且长期看好，字节跳动等大厂已开始讨论 2026 年采购计划，寒武纪在适配方面表现出色，已与字节完成所有模型适配， 未来份额有望进一步增加，同时关注海光在阿里、腾讯等大厂的进展。 预计 2026 年国产算力市场规模至少增长一倍以上，字节跳动对算力的 需求非常确定，建议重点配置国产算力作为底仓，关注相关量化股票的 投资机会。 英伟达收购 Groq 对其未来发展有何影响？ Q&A Met ...

Core Insights - The global AI startup funding reached $110 billion in 2024, a 77% increase year-on-year, with projections to exceed $200 billion by 2025, nearly doubling the previous amount [1][2] - The AI sector in global stock markets has shown remarkable performance, with Nvidia's stock price increasing 11 times over three years, reaching a market capitalization of over $4 trillion, the highest globally [3] - AI is transitioning from a conceptual phase to a performance explosion phase, with its development speed surpassing expectations, comparable to the mobile internet era [6] AI Development and Investment - The AI revolution is crucial for nations, companies, and individuals, with significant investments from major companies like Facebook, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, expected to reach $650 billion, $800 billion, $850 billion, and $1 trillion respectively by 2025 [10] - European and Japanese investments in AI are also substantial, with Europe planning to invest €20 billion and Japan projecting ¥196.9 billion, a 67% increase year-on-year [10] - Chinese companies are increasing their AI investments, with Alibaba investing ¥100 billion in the past year and planning to invest ¥380 billion over the next three years [10] AI Market Dynamics - The global AI landscape shows the U.S. leading, with China catching up, while Europe and Japan lag behind [12] - Nvidia dominates the high-end GPU chip market with a 90% share and a gross margin of 75% [12] - Major players in the AI model space include OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini, which are leading globally [14] Application and Performance - AI applications are beginning to generate tangible revenue, with ChatGPT's weekly active users surpassing 800 million and projected revenue of $15 billion in 2025, a threefold increase from 2024 [10] - Companies like Microsoft and Tencent are integrating AI into their operations, with Microsoft reporting a revenue of $76.44 billion and a net profit of $27.2 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting an 18% and 24% year-on-year growth respectively [23] - The AI sector is expected to experience explosive growth as it penetrates various industries, with applications in autonomous driving, AI search, and AI design emerging [10] Investment Strategies - The AI sector is still in its early stages, with a development phase of 20%-30%, indicating significant growth potential [27] - A long-term investment strategy is recommended for AI leaders in the U.S. and Hong Kong, while short-term strategies may be more suitable for A-shares [30] - The market is anticipated to enter a new cycle of growth, potentially leading to a 5-10 year bull market as AI applications become more widespread [29]