Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced narrow consolidation from November 3 to November 7, with gold facing a tug-of-war around the $4,000 mark, following a 10% pullback from its peak, indicating some bottom-fishing activity, but potential bearish pressures are limiting upward momentum, suggesting that the overall oscillating trend may continue [2] Market Dynamics - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 40 days, but there are increasing signs of bipartisan agreement to end it, with reports indicating the Senate has reached a consensus, and former President Trump stating that a resolution is close [2] - During the government shutdown, important U.S. economic data has been missing, with non-farm payrolls not published for two consecutive months, and several Federal Reserve officials expressing caution regarding interest rate cut prospects [2] - Employment data from private institutions shows divergence; the Challenge report indicates over 150,000 layoffs in October, the highest level for this period in over 20 years, while the ADP employment report shows an addition of 42,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 25,000 [3] - The October PMI for the U.S. manufacturing sector continued to show weakness, dropping from 49.1 in September to 48.7, remaining in contraction territory, although the employment sub-index rose to 46, indicating some resilience in the labor market [3] China Gold Consumption - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption reached 682.73 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%. Gold jewelry consumption fell by 32.5% to 270.036 tons, while gold bars and coins increased by 24.55% to 352.116 tons, and industrial and other gold usage rose by 2.72% to 60.578 tons [3]

Group 1 - The core narrative of gold prices in 2023 has been characterized by significant volatility, with prices surging nearly 60% in the first half of the year due to geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, and increased central bank purchases, followed by a sharp decline that marked the highest drop in five years [1][4] - The surge in gold prices led to increased consumer and investment interest, with notable trends such as the popularity of gold ETFs, which provided substantial returns to investors, exemplified by the BoShi Gold ETF's 54.08% increase over the past year and 138% over three years, compared to a 17.09% increase in the CSI 300 index [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent high prices, the gold market has experienced a significant downturn, catching many investors off guard, particularly those who had positioned themselves at lower prices earlier in the year [4] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a cooling of Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies, which are expected to increase market volatility [4] Group 3 - Alipay's gold investment products, primarily gold ETF linked funds, are regulated and managed by public fund companies approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, ensuring compliance and risk control [8] - Alipay's gold investment offers low entry barriers, starting from 1 yuan, and features low fees, with management fees for gold ETF linked funds typically ranging from 0.15% to 0.5% annually, making it more accessible compared to physical gold investments [9] - A long-term allocation strategy is recommended for gold investments, suggesting a portfolio allocation of 5%-15% and employing dollar-cost averaging to mitigate timing risks [9]

Market Overview - The precious metals market experienced a significant surge during the National Day holiday, with gold prices surpassing $4000 and RMB gold prices reaching 900 RMB per gram, marking a new historical phase [1][2] - The optimism in the gold market is driven by multiple factors, including the U.S. government shutdown, which has heightened uncertainty regarding economic policies and data releases, leading to increased investment in safe-haven assets [1][2] Economic Factors - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, such as non-farm payroll and CPI, which has contributed to a weakening employment outlook, reinforcing market expectations for potential interest rate cuts [1][3] - The escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions, including China's restrictions on rare earth exports and Trump's threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, has increased market risk aversion [2][3] Federal Reserve Stance - Mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate policy have emerged, with some advocating for caution while others support further rate cuts, reflecting the ongoing economic uncertainty [3] Investment Opportunities - The BoShi Gold ETF and its linked funds provide investors with a means to invest in gold through Shanghai Gold Exchange contracts, enhancing investment options for gold [4]

Group 1 - The core reason for the recent decline in gold prices is attributed to the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, which have increased the real interest rates of the dollar, diminishing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [1] - Global risk aversion has decreased due to the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and reduced recession expectations, leading to a shift of funds from gold to riskier assets like the stock market [1] - Central bank gold purchases have slowed down after record buying in 2022-2023, resulting in a stabilization of demand in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Short-term pressures on gold prices are expected, but it still holds long-term investment value, especially if the U.S. economy achieves a "soft landing," which may lead to continued price stabilization [2] - There is potential for a favorable shift in gold prices as the market anticipates a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025, which could renew interest in gold as an inflation hedge [2] Group 3 - Ongoing geopolitical risks in regions like the Middle East and East Asia may lead to periodic surges in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 4 - For ordinary investors, a strategy of gradual accumulation is recommended to avoid single-sided bets, while aggressive investors should consider futures and ETFs but must manage leverage risks carefully [4] Group 5 - Five recommended legal gold trading platforms in China include the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which offers low transaction fees and supports physical delivery, making it suitable for long-term investors and institutions [6] - Bank channels like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank provide accessible gold investment options with low entry thresholds, ideal for beginners [6] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange offers high liquidity and supports both long and short positions in gold futures [7] - Digital platforms like Alipay and WeChat provide flexible investment options starting from 1 yuan, suitable for small-scale investors [9] - Other compliant platforms include China Gold Investment Gold Bars and various gold ETFs from Southern Fund and Guotai Junan [12] Group 6 - Investors should be cautious of high-risk traps, including offshore platforms that promise high leverage and zero fees, which often lead to unregulated gambling-like trading [13] - Virtual scams that lure investors through "gold trading groups" and manipulate data behind the scenes pose significant risks [14] - Non-licensed sales through certain P2P platforms have led to multiple failures, highlighting the importance of regulatory compliance [15]