12月25日，"招财杯"ETF实盘大赛系列直播邀请到了广发基金指数投资部基金经理姚曦、广发基金投资 管理部账户经理张笑天一起探讨《全民买金"背后：重估黄金投资叙事》。 为持续向投资者普及ETF基础知识，招商证券携手十大基金公司，联合全景网共同举办2025年招商证 券"招财杯"ETF实盘大赛系列直播，旨在帮助投资者提升资产配置与风险管理能力，促进ETF市场的健 康发展。 2025年，黄金市场交出了一份令人瞩目的答卷。金价在波动中屡次挑战历史高位，其背后不仅是传统避 险情绪的推动，更交织着全球央行持续的购金潮、个人投资者通过黄金ETF的大规模涌入，以及对美元 信用体系进行长期重估的复杂叙事。 "2022年开始，各国央行都在大幅度地购买黄金，这一轮黄金价格的上涨，最主要的驱动力来自于各国 央行增加黄金资产配置所驱动的价格上行。" 姚曦表示，传统的黄金分析框架主要关注"美元指数、美债利率"两个指标。彼时，美债的价格波动和美 债利率呈负相关关系，同时美元指数和金价的关系也呈反向关系，这是传统的美元指数和美债利率与黄 金的"跷跷板"关系。但这个关系从2022年开始逐步被打破。 此外，铜、白银和黄金价格上行，共因来自于全球 ...

经历多年深度调整后，港股市场正站在一个罕见的战略性机遇点上——估值处于全球洼地、资金持续流 入、反弹动能强劲。当前，恒生指数不仅展现出显著的安全边际，更在弹性与爆发力方面优于A股等主 要市场。然而，面对这一"高性价比+高弹性"并存的"黄金底"窗口，投资者仍面临投资布局的核心痛 点：如何精准捕捉机会？反弹行情中又该选择何种高效工具？如何甄别值得信赖的基金管理人？ 全球估值洼地，凸显安全边际 截至2025年11月28日，恒生指数市盈率（PE_TTM）仅为11.89倍（数据来源：Wind），在全球主要资 本市场宽基指数中处于最低水平。对比来看，纳斯达克100、标普500、日经225、沪深300等主流指数当 前估值均显著高于港股。这一数据并非孤立现象，而是港股长期调整后的结构性结果。 低估值意味着向下的空间相对有限，而向上修复的空间广阔。对于长期资金而言，这正是"便宜买好 货"的经典时机。历史经验表明，当市场估值进入历史底部区域时，往往是中长期回报率最高的布局阶 段。尽管指数过往表现不预示未来业绩，但当前的估值水平无疑为投资者提供了相对较高的安全垫。 ·动能积聚的信号：资金借道港股通，持续大幅流入 与此同时，真金白银 ...

Group 1: Strategic Resource Accumulation - The article discusses the importance of national strategic resource accumulation, particularly in uncertain global conditions, to ensure wealth security for the country and its citizens [1][8] - China has significantly increased its gold reserves, reportedly more than doubling them over the past decade, with unreported purchases potentially exceeding public data by over ten times [3][5] - The accumulation of gold serves as a financial safety net, especially during times of geopolitical instability and fluctuating trust in the US dollar [5][13] Group 2: Oil and Food Security - In the first ten months of the year, China imported 3.462 billion barrels of oil, accounting for 10% of global supply, which is more than Saudi Arabia's daily production [9][11] - China is constructing 11 new oil storage facilities, ensuring that the country can maintain normal operations for six months without imports, surpassing the international safety standard of three months [11] - The country has established standardized grain storage facilities with a total capacity exceeding 730 million tons, sufficient to feed over 1.4 billion people for more than two years [13] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes the need for individuals to align their investment strategies with national resource accumulation, focusing on stability and gradual growth [13][21] - Two investment categories are highlighted: high-dividend assets, which provide stable cash flow and lower risk, and technology stocks, particularly those aligned with national strategic plans [15][17] - The importance of a diversified investment approach is stressed, advising against concentrating all investments in one sector to mitigate risks [19][21]

Group 1 - The core narrative of gold prices in 2023 has been characterized by significant volatility, with prices surging nearly 60% in the first half of the year due to geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, and increased central bank purchases, followed by a sharp decline that marked the highest drop in five years [1][4] - The surge in gold prices led to increased consumer and investment interest, with notable trends such as the popularity of gold ETFs, which provided substantial returns to investors, exemplified by the BoShi Gold ETF's 54.08% increase over the past year and 138% over three years, compared to a 17.09% increase in the CSI 300 index [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent high prices, the gold market has experienced a significant downturn, catching many investors off guard, particularly those who had positioned themselves at lower prices earlier in the year [4] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a cooling of Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies, which are expected to increase market volatility [4] Group 3 - Alipay's gold investment products, primarily gold ETF linked funds, are regulated and managed by public fund companies approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, ensuring compliance and risk control [8] - Alipay's gold investment offers low entry barriers, starting from 1 yuan, and features low fees, with management fees for gold ETF linked funds typically ranging from 0.15% to 0.5% annually, making it more accessible compared to physical gold investments [9] - A long-term allocation strategy is recommended for gold investments, suggesting a portfolio allocation of 5%-15% and employing dollar-cost averaging to mitigate timing risks [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent sharp decline in gold prices, which caught many investors off guard, particularly younger investors who viewed gold as a stable investment against inflation [2][4] - The decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including a strong dollar, easing geopolitical tensions, and the need for market correction after months of rising prices [2][4] - The phenomenon of younger generations investing in gold has emerged, reflecting their collective anxiety about an uncertain future and a desire for tangible assets [3][4] Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a sudden drop of over 6%, leading to significant losses for investors who had previously seen consistent gains [2] - The market's reaction was swift, with panic spreading among various investor groups, from Wall Street traders to retail investors [2] - Analysts are attempting to understand the causes of this decline, emphasizing the need for a market correction after excessive speculation [2][4] Investment Behavior - The trend of younger individuals investing in gold has transformed the traditional perception of gold as a safe haven into a more dynamic and social investment activity [3] - The ease of trading gold through mobile platforms has increased participation but also heightened market volatility [4] - Emotional decision-making has replaced rational analysis in some cases, as social media influences investment choices [4] Long-term Perspectives - Despite the recent volatility, the fundamental investment logic for gold remains unchanged, with ongoing central bank purchases and persistent geopolitical risks supporting its long-term value [4] - The recent market turmoil serves as a lesson for young investors about the inherent risks in even traditionally safe assets like gold [4][6] - Financial advisors recommend a balanced approach to gold investment, emphasizing it as a stabilizer rather than a means for quick wealth accumulation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks, has attracted significant investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices increased by 2.03% in the night trading session on September 22, 2025, breaking key resistance levels, leading to a strong opening for gold-related stocks, with many rising over 7% [1]. - The decline of the US dollar, which has fallen approximately 5% in recent months, has made gold cheaper for investors using other currencies, further boosting demand [4]. - Central banks globally have significantly increased gold purchases, with net purchases exceeding 800 tons in 2024, marking a historical high, primarily driven by emerging market central banks [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Various methods for investing in gold exist, each with unique advantages and risks, including physical gold, gold ETFs, paper gold, and gold mining stocks [4]. - Convertible bonds linked to gold stocks are highlighted as a favorable option, allowing investors to benefit from stock price increases while enjoying T+0 trading mechanisms [5]. - Gold ETFs, such as the one tracking Shanghai gold spot prices, have shown a cumulative increase of 34.61% since the beginning of the year, with low management fees [5]. Group 3: Risk Management - The market is currently showing overbought signals, indicating potential for price corrections, and investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid chasing prices [6]. - A survey indicates that 71% of central banks plan to maintain or reduce their gold holdings, which could weaken demand and impact gold prices [6]. - Investors are encouraged to set clear stop-loss points and target profit levels, maintaining discipline in their investment strategies [7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The early trading session showed a strong market sentiment with gold-related stocks initially rising over 7% but later retracting to around 4%, signaling caution against blind chasing of prices [8]. - The market is experiencing increased differentiation, and investors are advised to focus on high liquidity products while controlling their positions [8].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding bond index funds, which are less familiar to most investors compared to stock index funds [2] - A free course is offered to educate investors on the investment methods for bond index funds [2] Group 2 - The article discusses how to formulate a systematic investment strategy, particularly through dollar-cost averaging in index funds [6] - It highlights that the specific timing and frequency of investments in a systematic strategy are not critical, as long as investors choose a schedule that suits them [8] - The long-term nature of systematic investing, typically spanning 3-5 years, means that short-term price fluctuations have minimal impact on overall returns [8][9] - It advises against changing the investment schedule based on market conditions, as this can undermine investment discipline [10] Group 3 - The article suggests that the amount allocated for systematic investment should be funds that are not needed for 3-5 years, to avoid financial strain [11] - A survey indicates that a common practice for general investors is to allocate 20% of new income for systematic investments [11] - It encourages flexibility in adjusting the investment amount based on individual financial circumstances [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) serves as a bridge between stocks and mutual funds, offering real-time trading like stocks while providing diversification benefits like mutual funds [1][3]. Group 1: Trading Mechanism - ETFs can be traded on stock exchanges, allowing investors to buy and sell them directly through their stock accounts, with prices updated every 15 seconds during trading hours [4]. - Traditional mutual funds require investors to go through the fund company for transactions, with prices based on the net asset value at the end of the trading day [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Most ETFs employ a passive investment strategy, aiming to replicate the performance of specific indices such as the CSI 300 or Nasdaq 100 by holding the same constituent stocks [5]. - Investing in an ETF like the CSI 300 ETF is equivalent to purchasing a diversified portfolio of 300 leading A-share companies in one transaction [5]. Group 3: Transparency and Costs - ETFs provide daily disclosures of their holdings, allowing investors to see the underlying assets at any time, which contrasts with the higher information acquisition costs associated with individual stocks [6][8]. - The management fees for ETFs typically range from 0.15% to 0.5% per year, significantly lower than the 1% to 1.5% fees charged by actively managed mutual funds [6]. Group 4: Risk Characteristics - ETFs mitigate non-systematic risk through diversification, as seen in the 2018 A-share bear market where the CSI 300 index fell by 25.31%, while individual stocks experienced average declines exceeding 30% [12]. - Approximately 30% of the 4,000 A-shares in the market are suspected of financial fraud, highlighting the risk of investing in individual stocks compared to the diversified nature of ETFs [8]. Group 5: Suitability and Strategies - ETFs are suitable for investors seeking to participate in popular sectors like renewable energy or semiconductors without the need for extensive stock-picking skills [16]. - A core-satellite strategy can be employed, where a majority of funds are allocated to broad-based ETFs (e.g., CSI 300 ETF) as core holdings, while a smaller portion is invested in sector-specific ETFs or individual stocks for potential higher returns [16].

Group 1 - The Chinese concept ETFs showed a strong performance with a 1.7% increase in overnight trading, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1% amidst a backdrop of declining European and American markets [1] - The Hang Seng Tech ETF has accumulated a 22% increase, indicating positive market sentiment towards its future performance, while the ChiNext and semiconductor ETFs faced sell-offs, reflecting cautious investor attitudes towards tech stocks [1] - A recent innovative investment portfolio reported significant returns, with some participants achieving earnings of 1.19 million within the year, outperforming 89% of market participants [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce and U.S. officials held talks aimed at easing international trade tensions, while the China Securities Regulatory Commission convened a meeting to strengthen market stability, potentially positively influencing market sentiment [2] - The market exhibited a pattern of initial gains followed by declines, with short-term support levels identified between 3775-3815 and resistance levels at 3885-3925 [2] - The expansion of the CSI 300 ETF saw a notable increase of nearly 400 billion, drawing significant market attention, while PMI data showed slight improvement, rising to 49.4%, suggesting potential economic recovery [2] - Several well-known companies reported their half-year earnings, with notable profit increases from SMIC and BYD, while China Shenhua experienced a decline in profits, highlighting the need for cautious investment selection [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that market fluctuations are a natural part of investing, and that investors should focus on accumulating quality assets rather than reacting emotionally to price changes [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - During market volatility, investors should forget about price and remember about shares, viewing market downturns as opportunities to acquire more fund shares at lower prices [4]. - A "greed plan" should be established, where investors allocate spare cash into portions to buy more when the market drops by certain thresholds, as significant returns often come from buying during others' fear [6]. - Maintaining core allocations is crucial; as long as the fundamental logic behind the investment remains unchanged, price declines should be viewed as temporary [8]. Group 2: Investment Discipline - Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) should be treated as a discipline rather than a strategy; during market downturns, it is an ideal time to increase investment amounts or frequency [10]. - Understanding that volatility does not equate to risk is essential; rather, it presents opportunities for buying low and selling high, with true risk being the permanent loss of capital [12]. Group 3: Psychological Aspects of Investing - The essence of investing lies in psychology rather than technical skills; patience and adherence to investment principles are key during market fluctuations [13]. - The article concludes that the bull market has not ended, and that downturns should be seen as opportunities for the calm and rational investor [14].