在金价持续走高的当下，越来越多的投资者开始重新思考：黄金究竟是一种怎样的资产？是 否还可以继续配置？ "黄金，于我而言是一种值得等待的资产。"看着账户里接近50%的浮盈，黄金投资者雪棣如是说。 2025年以来，伴随全球地缘冲突持续与市场避险情绪升温，国际金价一路高走，接连突破3000美元/盎 司、3500美元/盎司乃至4000美元/盎司等关键点位，屡次刷新历史纪录。 截至10月8日，国际金价年内累计涨幅超过50%，使其成为全球大类资产中表现最为亮眼的品种之一。 作为黄金市场的参与者，雪棣亲历了国内金价从500元/克、600元/克一路攀升至900元/克的整个过程。 截至10月初，他在黄金上的累计投入已超过200万元，得益于较早的入场时机，目前实现收益近150万 元。他说："买黄金没什么技巧，全靠买得早。" 在这场由央行、投资机构以及投资者共同推动的"黄金热潮"中，有人凭借早期布局收获可观回报，有人 因犹豫等待而错失机会，也有人因"恐高"选择离场。在金价持续走高的当下，越来越多的投资者开始重 新思考：黄金究竟是一种怎样的资产？是否还可以继续配置？ "全靠买得早" 93年出生的雪棣，在福建的一家互联网知识服务公司工 ...

截至10月8日，国际金价年内累计涨幅超过50%，使其成为全球大类资产中表现最为亮眼的品种之 一。 作为黄金市场的参与者，雪棣亲历了国内金价从500元/克、600元/克一路攀升至900元/克的整个过 程。截至10月初，他在黄金上的累计投入已超过200万元，得益于较早的入场时机，目前实现收益 近150万元。他说："买黄金没什么技巧，全靠买得早。" 在这场由央行、投资机构以及投资者共同推动的"黄金热潮"中，有人凭借早期布局收获可观回报， 有人因犹豫等待而错失机会，也有人因"恐高"选择离场。在金价持续走高的当下，越来越多的投资 者开始重新思考：黄金究竟是一种怎样的资产？是否还可以继续配置？ 在金价持续走高的当下，越来越多的投资者开始重新思考：黄 金究竟是一种怎样的资产？是否还可以继续配置？ 作者： 陈姗 封图：图虫创意 "黄金，于我而言是一种值得等待的资产。"看着账户里接近50%的浮盈，黄金投资者雪棣如是说。 2025年以来，伴随全球地缘冲突持续与市场避险情绪升温，国际金价一路高走，接连突破3000美 元/盎司、3500美元/盎司乃至4000美元/盎司等关键点位，屡次刷新历史纪录。 对比银行理财，这一收益率让雪棣颇感 ...

来源：涨基财富 近期黄金价格突破3800美元/盎司，创历史新高，年内涨幅已超38%。 多家权威机构持续看多金价，其中高盛指出，在极端情景下（如美联储独立性受质疑导致资金从美债转 向黄金），金价可能触及5000美元/盎司。摩根大通、瑞银等机构也普遍看好金价中长期站上4000美 元。 以下是主要黄金基金类型及其特点： 1、黄金ETF，通过持有黄金现货合约跟踪黄金价格的基金，在证券交易所上市交易，支持T+0交易（当 日可买卖），交易效率最高，资金实时到账。 这些机构看涨黄金的逻辑主要集中在以下几个方面： 1、央行持续购金：各国央行是黄金市场的重要买家。世界黄金协会报告指出，央行们计划在未来五年 内增加黄金持有量，同时减少美元储备。 2、美联储货币政策转向预期：市场普遍预期美联储将进入降息周期。降息通常会压低美元价值和债券 收益率，从而提振黄金这类非生息资产的价格。 3、对美联储独立性的担忧：高盛指出，若美联储的独立性受到质疑（例如面临政治压力），可能导致 通胀预期上升、美元信誉受损，从而触发资金从美元资产流向黄金。他们测算，若有1%的私人持有美 债资金转向黄金，金价就可能接近5000美元。 4、地缘政治与经济不确定 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance and outlook of gold ETFs, indicating a year-to-date increase of 30.86% as of September 5, with active trading reflected in a turnover rate of 1.03% and a transaction amount of 292 million yuan [1] - The international gold price is currently trading at $3548.93 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.1%, and the COMEX gold futures are reported at $3609.2 per ounce, reflecting a 0.07% rise [2] - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price target to $3800 per ounce, emphasizing that historical data shows an average increase of 6% in gold prices within 60 days following a Federal Reserve rate cut, which supports a bullish outlook for gold [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a slight rise in risk premiums [4] - The uncertainty in global economic growth and ongoing geopolitical issues are driving safe-haven investments into gold, with central banks continuing to purchase gold, providing strong support for gold prices [5] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is identified as a key driver for gold prices, with historical trends indicating strong performance for gold during the initial phase of rate cuts, alongside concerns over geopolitical risks and inflation [6] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) and its associated funds are designed to closely track domestic gold prices, offering low entry barriers and diverse trading options, which supports T+0 trading [6] - Investors are advised to consider the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and CPI data, as these may influence the pace of rate cuts and subsequently affect gold price volatility [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Federal Reserve is preparing to lower interest rates in response to economic risks, particularly concerning the labor market [2][3] - The gold ETF fund (159937) has seen a year-to-date increase of 25.17%, reflecting strong investor interest amid changing monetary policy expectations [1] - Current spot gold prices are around $3364.31 per ounce, with fluctuations influenced by Federal Reserve announcements and market sentiment [1][3] Group 2 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted the need for potential adjustments in policy due to changing economic risks and labor market conditions [2] - The U.S. GDP growth is projected to slow from 2.5% to 1.2% by the first half of 2025, indicating structural challenges in the economy [2] - The labor market appears balanced, but there are signs of cooling demand and supply, increasing the risk of job losses [2] - Tariffs are expected to continue impacting prices, but the Fed views this as a one-time shock rather than a persistent inflation issue [2] - The Fed's current policy rate is closer to neutral, with inflation risks skewed upward and employment risks downward, necessitating a careful approach [2] - The new policy framework has removed previous commitments regarding inflation targets and employment levels, indicating a more data-driven approach [2] Group 3 - Short-term market dynamics are driven by Powell's dovish stance and weakening economic data, which have increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September [3] - The uncertainty in the Middle East may further boost safe-haven demand for gold, supporting its price [3] - In the medium term, persistent inflation and resilient employment data could lead to unexpected rate cuts by the Fed, increasing gold volatility [3] - Central banks are continuing to purchase gold amid a global trend of de-dollarization, providing long-term support for gold prices [3] - The gold ETF fund and its associated funds offer low-cost, diversified investment options in gold, aligning closely with domestic gold prices [3]

Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - The traditional analysis framework indicates that gold prices are primarily determined by real interest rates, the US dollar index, and inflation expectations. However, in 2025, this linear relationship is being disrupted as gold prices reach historical highs despite the US 10-year TIPS yield remaining around 0.8%, indicating a significant weakening of the negative correlation between the two [1] - The IMF report highlights that the share of gold in global foreign exchange reserves has increased to 17%, up 5 percentage points since 2020. Countries like Russia and Iran are piloting a "gold standard" system, linking part of their oil exports to gold, which could undermine the dominance of the US dollar [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - The demographic of gold investors is becoming younger, with 47% of gold investors aged 25-35, an increase of 23 percentage points since 2020. This group prefers digital tools like gold accumulation plans and gold ETF-linked funds, leading to a threefold increase in average trading frequency compared to traditional investors [3] - The average P/E ratio for gold mining companies is currently at 15, which is historically low. Companies with resource expansion potential, such as Zijin Mining, are expected to see a 25% year-on-year increase in gold production in 2025 [5] Group 3: Market Opportunities and Risks - The revival of traditional gold craftsmanship is driving an upgrade in gold jewelry consumption, with Chow Tai Fook's "Heritage" series sales increasing by 65% year-on-year. The gold recycling market is also showing "Internet+" characteristics, with a 20% monthly growth in gold recycling business on platforms like Xianyu [3] - Geopolitical tensions may ease, and if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, oil prices could drop by 20%, potentially leading to a gold price correction to $2,200. A dynamic stop-loss of 10% is recommended [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the increasing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset amid global market volatility and geopolitical tensions, with significant inflows into gold ETFs [1][3][5] - As of June 30, the gold ETF (159937) reached a scale of 27.9 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 12.9 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, reflecting an 86% growth [3] - The gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past five days, totaling 187 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 37.43 million yuan [6] Group 2 - Spot gold prices have fluctuated, recently surpassing the 3,300 USD mark, currently trading at 3,330.75 USD per ounce, with a daily high of 3,336 USD [2][4] - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could further support gold prices, although there are internal divisions within the Fed regarding the timing and extent of such cuts [3][5] - The ongoing trade tensions, including new tariffs announced by the U.S. on imports from Canada and Brazil, are expected to increase inflationary pressures, thereby enhancing gold's role as a hedge against macroeconomic instability [4][5] Group 3 - The gold ETF and its linked funds provide a low-cost and accessible way for investors to participate in gold investments, with features such as T+0 trading [6] - The recent geopolitical risks and the actions of emerging market central banks in accumulating gold have provided additional support for gold prices [5] - Analysts suggest that while the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, short-term price movements may be more influenced by U.S. macroeconomic data and increased market volatility [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been experiencing high volatility since June, with a recent decline of nearly 3%, but the underlying logic for a long-term bullish trend remains intact due to expectations of a shift towards monetary easing by global central banks and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2][3] Market Analysis - As of June 26, the London gold price fluctuated around $3,333 per ounce, showing a recovery trend despite geopolitical tensions, indicating that the market is reassessing gold's value as a non-credit asset [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the recent drop in gold prices during the Iran conflict was influenced by rising oil prices, which diluted gold's safe-haven status [2] - The global political and economic restructuring is increasing uncertainty, making gold an important hedging tool, especially when geopolitical indices are high [2][3] Central Bank Activity - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, with the World Gold Council reporting that over 1,000 tons of gold have been accumulated annually in the past three years, significantly higher than the previous decade's average of 400-500 tons [4][5] - The European Central Bank noted that gold has surpassed the euro as the second-largest reserve asset globally, accounting for 21% of total reserves [4] Investment Trends - There is a growing interest in gold investment products, particularly gold ETFs, with total assets reaching 101.9 billion yuan, a 43% increase since the beginning of the year [6] - Despite some outflows in May, the demand for gold ETFs remains strong, with a notable increase in holdings and inflows compared to historical levels [6] - Investors are shifting their preferences towards stable value assets, such as high-dividend ETFs and gold, reflecting a cautious approach amid rising geopolitical risks [9] Price Outlook - Analysts expect gold prices to rise further due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, with projections indicating that gold could reach new highs by 2025-2026 [3][5] - The current price range for gold is experiencing resistance around $3,400 to $3,500 per ounce, and further upward movement may require additional economic deterioration or geopolitical developments [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility and uncertainty, with recent price fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions and economic factors [1][2]. Price Trends - On June 2, international gold prices surged past the key resistance level of $3,300 per ounce, closing at $3,406 per ounce, marking a nearly 3% increase and the largest single-day gain in three weeks [1]. - Earlier in April, gold prices reached a historical high of $3,509 per ounce before dropping to $3,245 due to easing geopolitical tensions, followed by a recovery supported by central bank gold purchases and rising inflation expectations in the U.S. [1]. Market Influences - The sensitivity of gold prices is attributed to its status as a recognized safe-haven asset, closely linked to global economic conditions, including U.S. Federal Reserve policy shifts, geopolitical conflicts, and global inflation trends [2]. - Major Wall Street firms have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a target price of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, and JPMorgan predicting that gold could reach $4,000 sooner than expected [2]. Investment Trends - There is a growing trend of retail investors participating in gold investments, driven by social media discussions and investment analysis videos, leading to a surge in interest [3]. - Some investors are resorting to high-risk financing methods, such as consumer loans and credit cards, to invest in gold, which poses significant financial risks if prices decline [3]. Investment Strategies - Various investment methods for gold include physical gold (bars, coins) and gold ETFs, with the latter offering lower costs and higher liquidity [3]. - The 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) has gained attention for its strong performance, and investors can also consider ETF-linked funds for similar investment benefits [4].

Core Viewpoint - Since May 12, as global instability factors have eased, gold, traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset, has begun to experience a pullback, with significant declines in prices and net outflows from gold ETFs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of May 15, the Shanghai gold benchmark price has dropped by 11.31% from a recent high of 830.08 CNY per gram on April 22, closing at 736.17 CNY per gram [1][3]. - The price of domestic jewelry gold has also fallen back to three-digit levels, indicating a significant decline from previous highs [1]. Group 2: Gold ETF Performance - Despite a surge in interest in gold ETFs earlier this year, recent days have seen net outflows from these funds, with major ETFs like the Guotai Gold ETF experiencing significant withdrawals of 573 million CNY and 377 million CNY on May 14 and 15, respectively [4][8]. - The Huazhang Gold ETF has recorded the largest net inflow among ETFs this year, but the recent drop in gold prices has led many investors to cut losses [4][9]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment - The volatility in gold prices has led to a situation where many investors bought at peak prices, resulting in substantial losses within a short period [8]. - Industry professionals express concern over the increased volatility of gold, which has traditionally been characterized by long cycles and low fluctuations, making it challenging for conservative investors and retail businesses [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that despite the recent downturn, there is a strong possibility of gold prices rising again by the end of the year due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchasing [8]. - The current market conditions suggest that while short-term declines may continue, long-term investment strategies involving gradual buying could be beneficial [8].