Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate at 5.25%-5.5%, marking a shift in economic description from "moderate expansion" to "slowing" [2] - The meeting saw two dissenting votes for the first time since 1993, indicating increased division among policymakers [2] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2023 decreased from 46 basis points to 36 basis points following Powell's comments [1] Inflation and Employment - Powell highlighted that tariffs have been overlooked in their impact on inflation, suggesting that the costs will gradually be passed to consumers [1] - The labor market remains robust, with unemployment rates at historical lows, but a gradual weakening is expected in Q4 [1] - CPI growth is anticipated to rebound slightly in Q3 due to tariff impacts, but may decline again in Q4 as demand slows [1] Future Rate Cuts - The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in Q3, with potential cuts in October and December, bringing the year-end policy rate to approximately 3.83% [1] - The anticipated cuts are driven by rising unemployment and the economic impact of tariffs [2] Market Implications - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to rise initially before declining, with year-end projections at around 4.2% [2] - The U.S. dollar index may rise in Q3 due to inflation rebounds, but could decline in Q4 as inflation falls and rate cuts are implemented [2]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate in the range of 4.25-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[2] - The balance sheet reduction pace remains unchanged at $5 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in MBS monthly[2] - The statement highlighted increased economic uncertainty, with three key adjustments made to previous language regarding economic activity and net exports[2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Market sentiment turned hawkish, with the 10-year Treasury yield initially dropping before rising, and the S&P 500 index reversing gains[2] - July's ADP employment report showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 76,000[8] - The second quarter GDP growth rate was reported at 3.0%, surpassing the market expectation of 2.6%[8] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impacts - Powell indicated that tariffs have a slower-than-expected impact on inflation, with core PCE expected to be 2.5% and 2.7% respectively[2] - Data from Cavallo et al. (2025) shows that U.S. import prices are rising faster than domestic prices, with significant increases in prices of goods imported from China[8] - A majority of businesses plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers within three months, indicating a potential rise in consumer prices[8] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The Fed's reluctance to provide guidance on a potential September rate cut reflects a cautious stance amid economic uncertainties[8] - Risks include high uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and their impact on inflation, as well as potential downward pressure on employment exceeding expectations[8]

Group 1 - The core reason for the recent decline in gold prices is attributed to the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, which have increased the real interest rates of the dollar, diminishing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [1] - Global risk aversion has decreased due to the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and reduced recession expectations, leading to a shift of funds from gold to riskier assets like the stock market [1] - Central bank gold purchases have slowed down after record buying in 2022-2023, resulting in a stabilization of demand in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Short-term pressures on gold prices are expected, but it still holds long-term investment value, especially if the U.S. economy achieves a "soft landing," which may lead to continued price stabilization [2] - There is potential for a favorable shift in gold prices as the market anticipates a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025, which could renew interest in gold as an inflation hedge [2] Group 3 - Ongoing geopolitical risks in regions like the Middle East and East Asia may lead to periodic surges in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 4 - For ordinary investors, a strategy of gradual accumulation is recommended to avoid single-sided bets, while aggressive investors should consider futures and ETFs but must manage leverage risks carefully [4] Group 5 - Five recommended legal gold trading platforms in China include the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which offers low transaction fees and supports physical delivery, making it suitable for long-term investors and institutions [6] - Bank channels like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank provide accessible gold investment options with low entry thresholds, ideal for beginners [6] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange offers high liquidity and supports both long and short positions in gold futures [7] - Digital platforms like Alipay and WeChat provide flexible investment options starting from 1 yuan, suitable for small-scale investors [9] - Other compliant platforms include China Gold Investment Gold Bars and various gold ETFs from Southern Fund and Guotai Junan [12] Group 6 - Investors should be cautious of high-risk traps, including offshore platforms that promise high leverage and zero fees, which often lead to unregulated gambling-like trading [13] - Virtual scams that lure investors through "gold trading groups" and manipulate data behind the scenes pose significant risks [14] - Non-licensed sales through certain P2P platforms have led to multiple failures, highlighting the importance of regulatory compliance [15]