Group 1 - The precious metals market continued its adjustment trend from October 27 to October 31, with a temporary easing of tensions in the US-China relationship following a summit meeting [1][2] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but expressed uncertainty regarding future actions in December, indicating a more hawkish tone [1][2] - The recent adjustment in domestic gold VAT policy may lead to increased costs for physical gold investments, potentially suppressing short-term demand [1][2] Group 2 - Following the easing of trade tensions and the results of the October Federal Reserve meeting, the gold market is expected to maintain a volatile adjustment pattern in November [2] - The next significant focus for the market will be the December Federal Reserve meeting, which will provide economic forecasts for 2026, potentially influencing future interest rate decisions [2] - The adjustment in VAT policy for gold distinguishes between investment and non-investment uses, leading to higher costs for investment gold products [2]

Market Overview - During the National Day holiday, the sentiment in the precious metals market continued to rise, driven by concerns over US-China trade disputes and risks in US regional banks, which boosted safe-haven demand [1][2] - In the week from October 13 to October 17, international gold prices surged, approaching $4400, while the RMB gold price reached a historical high of 1000 yuan per gram, marking a weekly increase of over 5%, the strongest performance since May [1][2] US Government Shutdown - The US government shutdown has reached its third-longest duration in history, with no signs of reconciliation between the two parties, indicating limited willingness from the Trump administration to reach a short-term agreement with the Democrats [1][2] Regional Bank Issues - Recent loan fraud incidents at US regional banks have raised concerns reminiscent of the systemic risks posed by the 2023 SVB crisis, although the affected banks are smaller and the current situation appears to be more of an isolated credit loss rather than a systemic issue [2][3] - The liquidity position of the involved regional banks is healthier compared to SVB during its crisis, suggesting that the current events may not lead to sustained financial turmoil, but the impact of the government shutdown on liquidity needs further observation [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that some liquidity indicators are tightening, and the Fed may halt balance sheet reduction in the coming months, providing marginal support to market liquidity [2][3] Investment Opportunities - The BoShi Gold ETF and its linked funds track the performance of gold prices in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, offering investors a new avenue for gold investment with a minimum purchase starting at 1 yuan [3]

上周（9.8~9.12）黄金市场受到美国就业市场持续弱化和通胀平稳的影响，伴随即将开启的降息周 期，黄金仍受到市场普遍关注。 本报告版权归博时基金管理有限公司所有。 市场观点方面，过往一周黄金资产继续延续相对强势，伦敦现货黄金跃上3600美元关口，受到非农数 据下调和通胀数据平稳所提振的降息预期的推动。 本周9月美联储议息会议召开，首次降息即将落地，2Y美债已经定价了年内降息3次的预期，重点关注 季度末议息会议对后续路径的指引。降息周期伊始，虽然短期降息节奏会影响黄金的波动路径，但我 们对后续整体降息空间较为乐观，2026年美联储票委中，总统导向席位或占到绝对多数，美联储独立 性风险不仅影响远期利率路径，也对美元信用收缩的叙事形成支撑。与此对比的是，欧洲央行连续两 次会议维持利率不变，认为当前通胀压力已得到有效控制，此消彼长之下，美元汇率弱势将大概率维 持。 上周国际地缘冲突再度抬头，以色列对包括卡塔尔在内的多个国家和地区发起袭击，波兰正式签署协 议允许北约在其境内部署军队，不能排除后续地缘波动会引发连锁反应，波动上升的环境利好黄金资 产配置。 上周市场动态方面，美国8月通胀数据表现平稳。美国劳工统计局周四公 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in the gold market, driven by the weak US dollar and recent trade agreements between the US and Japan, which have influenced risk sentiment [1][2][3] - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement imposing a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, lower than the previously threatened 25% [1][2] - The European Union also announced a 15% baseline tariff on US imports, with some products potentially exempted, indicating a reduction in trade uncertainty [2] Group 2 - The recent decline in US durable goods orders and existing home sales suggests a slowdown in the US economy, with June durable goods orders dropping by 9.3%, the largest decline since April 2020 [2] - Core durable goods orders unexpectedly fell by 0.7%, contrary to market expectations of a 0.1% increase, indicating potential economic weakness [2] - The National Association of Realtors reported a 2.7% decrease in existing home sales in June, reaching an annualized rate of 3.93 million units, the lowest in nine months [2] Group 3 - President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and pressured Chairman Powell regarding interest rate cuts, amidst ongoing disputes over the cost of the Fed's renovation project [3] - The pressure on Powell is expected to increase, potentially leading to a marginal easing of monetary policy, which could support gold prices in the near future [2][3] - The BoShi Gold ETF and its linked funds provide investors with a way to invest in gold through Shanghai Gold Exchange contracts, tracking the performance of gold prices in RMB [3]