国庆期间贵金属情绪在假日结束后继续发酵，中美贸易分歧与美国区域银行风险所引发的市场忧虑提 振避险需求。 市场观点方面，过往一周（10．13~10．17）贵金属市场在国庆假日激昂情绪得到延续，国际金价不 断加速一度接近4400美元，人民币金价也上摸1000元/克的历史关口，但在特朗普释放中美谈判乐观前 景的表态下出现回撤，Wind数据显示，当周仍劲升逾5%，为5月以来最强单周表现。 美国政府的关门仍在延续，时长已达历史第三长水平，且两党分歧没有看到弥合的信号。特朗普政府 利用政府关门做出的永久性裁员和拨款延迟或暗示其短期与民主党达成协议的意愿有限，该情况的延 续时间将超市场预期。 周内美国区域性银行出现贷款欺诈事件，引发市场回想起2023年SVB所引发的系统性风险，并引导了 部分避险需求。不过与SVB相比，涉事银行属于典型的区域性银行，规模更小。第二，当前事件更像 个别授信/欺诈事件引发的信用损失，与硅谷银行事件当年区域银行普遍存在的的久期错配情况不同， 或难引发系统性风险。第三，硅谷银行彼时在负债端出现了流动性挤兑，而涉事银行负债端更为健 康。当前该事件本身或难以引发持续性的金融动荡，但若结合政府关门导致的流 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the surge in the precious metals market during the National Day holiday, driven by uncertainties in U.S. government operations and economic data, leading to increased investment in safe-haven assets [1][2][3] - Gold prices have reached new historical highs, with international gold prices surpassing $4000 and RMB gold prices exceeding 900 yuan per gram, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [1][2] - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, which has further impacted market confidence and reinforced expectations for potential interest rate cuts [1][3] Group 2 - The escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions, including China's restrictions on rare earth exports and Trump's threats of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, has heightened market risk aversion [2] - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by both risk aversion and monetary easing, has led to increased allocations to gold, as investors seek to capitalize on favorable conditions [2] - The mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts reflect ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook, with some advocating for caution while others support further easing [3]

上周（9.8~9.12）黄金市场受到美国就业市场持续弱化和通胀平稳的影响，伴随即将开启的降息周 期，黄金仍受到市场普遍关注。 本报告版权归博时基金管理有限公司所有。 市场观点方面，过往一周黄金资产继续延续相对强势，伦敦现货黄金跃上3600美元关口，受到非农数 据下调和通胀数据平稳所提振的降息预期的推动。 本周9月美联储议息会议召开，首次降息即将落地，2Y美债已经定价了年内降息3次的预期，重点关注 季度末议息会议对后续路径的指引。降息周期伊始，虽然短期降息节奏会影响黄金的波动路径，但我 们对后续整体降息空间较为乐观，2026年美联储票委中，总统导向席位或占到绝对多数，美联储独立 性风险不仅影响远期利率路径，也对美元信用收缩的叙事形成支撑。与此对比的是，欧洲央行连续两 次会议维持利率不变，认为当前通胀压力已得到有效控制，此消彼长之下，美元汇率弱势将大概率维 持。 上周国际地缘冲突再度抬头，以色列对包括卡塔尔在内的多个国家和地区发起袭击，波兰正式签署协 议允许北约在其境内部署军队，不能排除后续地缘波动会引发连锁反应，波动上升的环境利好黄金资 产配置。 上周市场动态方面，美国8月通胀数据表现平稳。美国劳工统计局周四公 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resurgence of gold prices driven by weak economic data and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, attracting Western financial investors [1][2] - Gold prices reached a four-month high, supported by optimistic expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September following continuous weak economic indicators [1][2] - The market's strength is primarily driven by two factors: the confirmation of a rate cut cycle post-Jackson Hole meeting and Trump's announcement to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1][2] Group 2 - The recent increase in gold prices is largely attributed to Western ETF funds and COMEX net long positions, contrasting with previous market dynamics where Asian investors and central banks were the main drivers [2] - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has sparked a significant legal dispute regarding the independence of the U.S. central bank, with Cook filing a lawsuit against Trump [2] - The U.S. durable goods orders for July showed a smaller-than-expected decline, with a preliminary month-on-month decrease of 2.8%, compared to an expected decrease of 4% [3]

上周（8．18~8．22）黄金市场大部分时段延续震荡表现，鲍威尔在央行年会终于松口释放降息预 期，黄金交投情绪得到改善。国内投资者在权益市场向好背景下继续兑现黄金收益。 市场观点方面，过往一周（8．18~8．22）黄金市场大部分时段延续震荡表现，周五鲍威尔在央行年 会终于松口释放降息预期，黄金交投情绪得到改善。鲍威尔谈到：劳动力供给和需求双双显著放缓所 导致的奇怪的平衡状态，这表明，就业的下行风险正在上升。而如果这些风险成为现实，它们可能以 裁员急剧增加和失业率上升的形式迅速显现。基线前景和不断变化的风险平衡可能需要调整政策立 场。而对于关税政策引发的通胀，鲍威尔也调整了其表述口径，称其通胀效应不太可能是持久的，也 不太会导致通胀预期上行，这与之前持续的将通胀风险放在就业之前的鹰派言论有明显区别，基本意 味着9月开始的降息路径上已经不存在障碍。受此影响，国际金价交易情绪明显改善，上周五单日涨 幅超1%。 正如我们在之前的市场追踪中所提到的，货币政策变化所带来的边际流动性改善已经是现阶段支持金 价的主要因素，黄金的基本面环境较二季度边际改善。不过在整体风险偏好趋强的背景下，黄金作为 避险资产能否重拾上升动能仍具 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market experienced fluctuations due to the Federal Reserve's personnel changes and disappointing non-farm employment data, which raised expectations for future monetary easing [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm employment data for July showed an increase of 73,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, with revisions to previous months indicating a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [3] - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand in Q2 2025, reaching 1,249 tons, with a substantial 45% increase in value to $132 billion, driven primarily by strong investment demand [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting showed a division among board members regarding interest rate decisions, with two members voting against the rate decision for the first time since 1993, indicating increasing political influence on monetary policy [2] - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler on August 1 further fueled market speculation about potential personnel changes at the Fed, which could impact future monetary policy [4] - The overall uncertainty in the market is expected to shift from tariff negotiations to expectations of a rate cut cycle, which may become a significant factor influencing gold prices in the near future [3]

上周黄金市场冲高回落，美元弱势一度支持金价走高，但后续美日贸易协议落地的消息引领避险情绪回 落。国内投资者在权益市场走强的背景下也出现一定配置流出。 市场观点方面，过往一周（7.21~7.25）国际黄金市场再现冲高回落表现，美元指数创下一个月来最大 单周跌幅，现货黄金一度大涨冲高，但在美日贸易协议公布后转为大幅下挫。美国与日本达成协议，将 对日本进口商品加征15%关税，低于此前威胁的25%水平。欧盟与美国的基准关税也在今日上午公告落 地，同样15%。8月上旬贸易的不确定性降低，黄金市场的驱动更多回到美国基本面和降息预期。美联 储年内首降预期停留在9月，事件节点上仍关注8月下旬全球央行年会上美联储的表达，若配合美联储换 届声音再起，或带来波动弹性的放大。 上周内特朗普亲自到访美联储总部，并就美联储大楼翻新项目与鲍威尔产生争执，并再次施压其进行降 息。尽管特朗普仍保持不会直接撤换鲍威尔的口径，但其盟友佛罗里达州共和党众议员安娜·保利娜·卢 纳正式向美国司法部提交刑事指控动议，指控美联储主席鲍威尔在国会作证时两度撒谎，犯有"伪证 罪"。而特朗普又亲自在美联储现场的电视采访中提到项目成本问题，因此美联储主席的换任风波 ...

上周（4月28日-5月2日）国际黄金市场波动加剧，贸易战走向扰动市场风险偏好并对金价构成剧烈影 响。亚洲时段的动能加持有所削弱，无论是期货市场还是ETF均呈现边际流出。 市场观点方面，五一假期前后（4.28~5.5）黄金市场呈现了先抑后扬的V型走势，在关税变局的影响 下，市场风险偏好大幅变动，也带动黄金波幅明显放大。 经历4月的快速拉涨后，黄金价格需要时间来进行消化整理，而近期逆风因素开始显现，关税博弈中特 朗普政府不断释放缓和信号，以及美国4月制造业PMI、非农就业数据小幅超预期，风险偏好的回升及 降息预期的回落短期压制金价表现。同时，亚洲区的获利了结资金也同步出现，时段内引领涨势的情况 不再，期货持仓一周内降幅近10%，国内各黄金ETF持仓也在呈现边际流出。 部分避险资金再次回到黄金市场 进入五一假日后段，国际金价于3200美元附近企稳，并快速回升至3300美元上方。前半段假日内引领风 险偏好回升的因素包括美国和乌克兰达成资源开发和重建协议；特朗普政府宣称将与韩国、日本和印度 有潜在的贸易协议，以及重要的与中国方面的接洽开始发生。但这一切在5月5日发生了戏剧性的转变， 首先是日本提出的全面豁免10%的对等 ...

Group 1 - The international gold market reached a new historical record of $3,500 last week, followed by a significant pullback due to Trump's easing of tariff rhetoric [1] - Domestic investors have been the main source of incremental funds in the market since April, continuing to show a rapid influx [1] - The gold market experienced the largest volatility of the year during the week of April 21-25, with Asian buying contributing approximately 70% of the price increase since April [1] Group 2 - On April 22, the total trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange approached 1 trillion RMB, and the daily trading volume of domestic gold ETFs increased by over 300% compared to the average of the past month [1] - Trump's administration has been signaling a reduction in tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, which has alleviated market concerns and led to a rebound in the dollar index and U.S. stocks [1][2] - The net long positions of COMEX gold futures managers have dropped to the lowest level in 13 months, indicating a willingness to take profits in the overheated gold market [1] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is taking a leading role in tariff negotiations, with expectations of a potential recovery in market risk appetite, while gold may continue to adjust from its previous aggressive performance [2] - The macroeconomic logic for gold remains unchanged in the medium to long term, with upcoming corporate debt maturities and the lifting of the debt ceiling potentially causing further market volatility [2] - The BoShi Gold ETF and its linked funds provide investors with a way to invest in gold through Shanghai Gold Exchange contracts, enhancing investment options for a broader audience [2]