黄金市场上周（12.1~12.5）窄幅震荡，美联储12月降息预期已被市场充分定价，白银与铜的交投情绪 对黄金的提振较为有限。日本央行表述鹰派的情况下，全球流动性仍边际趋紧，债券利率抬升压制黄 金投资者参与情绪。 市场观点方面，过往一周黄金市场呈现窄幅震荡，一方面，美国周内公布的11月ADP就业数据、9月实 际PCE及11月制造业PMI均不及预期，显化了美国经济边际走弱的背景，并提振潜在刺激预期。市场 对明年联储的宽松一致预期也较高，这导致当前黄金缺乏进一步上行的额外推动力量。 而周内日本央行明显鹰派的表态对全球流动性造成了再次抽离，10Y日债上行13bp、10Y美债跟随上 行12bp，10Y中债利率上行1bp至1.85%，在通胀预期回落而名义力量抬升的情况下，基于金融属性的 黄金投资者难以入场，这也是其在最近银铜表现强劲的背景下而难以被有效提振的重要原因。 中国央行11月黄金储备增加3万盎司，央行购金速度维持低位，但购金方向不变。看好中长期黄金趋 势，但短期缺乏新的催化因素的情况下，或继续维持震荡整理态势。 上周市场动态方面，美国11月ADP就业数据继续弱势。11月，美国ADP就业减少3.2万人，市场预期增 ...

Core Insights - The precious metals market experienced a downward trend last week due to hawkish outlooks from Federal Reserve officials and strong non-farm payroll data for September [1][2] - The exposure of a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine has reduced geopolitical tensions, impacting market sentiment [1][2] - The G20 summit reiterated the need for countries to collaborate on common challenges and suggested the IMF sell part of its gold reserves to alleviate debt pressures in developing countries [1][2] Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting indicated a hawkish stance, with many officials believing that maintaining interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year is appropriate [2] - The minutes highlighted concerns that further rate cuts could risk entrenching inflation and signal a lack of commitment to the 2% inflation target [2] - Among the voting members, five lean towards a hawkish stance of not cutting rates, while four support further cuts, leaving the final decision dependent on the views of three key officials [1][2] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for September increased by 119,000, surpassing market expectations of 50,000, reversing a decline of 4,000 in August [2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.3% to 4.4% [2] Geopolitical Developments - The Russian central bank has begun selling part of its gold reserves to meet budgetary needs, confirming its status as the fifth-largest holder of gold globally with over 2,300 tons [2] - The easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may lead to a more stable market environment [2]

贵金属市场上周在美国政府停摆结束后走高，主要受亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克明年二月计划退休提 振，市场对未来美联储独立性的忧虑重燃。不过，美联储多位官员提升对通胀的关注度，降低了后续 降息预期。 市场观点方面，过往一周（11．10~11．14）贵金属市场再次迎来明显上涨，市场预期随着经济数据的 恢复更新，目前私营机构所发布的经济弱势报告将进一步得到证实，并提振宽松路径。同时，亚特兰 大联储主席博斯蒂克明年二月计划退休提振，市场对未来美联储独立性的忧虑重燃，成为周内贵金属 再度大幅上涨的主要动能来源。 不过，后续多位美联储官员态度转向，从关注就业转为更关注通胀表现，压低了12月份的降息预期， 黄金市场再度回落。针对近期共和党地方选举的失利以及特朗普支持率的下降，周内特朗普宣布下调 多项食品关税，并与阿根廷、厄瓜多尔、危地马拉和萨尔瓦多等食品供应国达成框架性贸易协议，以 期回应民众期待。从这一角度看，伴随上周关税合法性在最高法院受到质疑，未来一段时间内整体贸 易冲突的演变或趋于缓和，提振市场风险偏好。 政府重启后，短期的流动性压力也得到缓解，但对黄金市场的影响偏于中性，黄金仍处于震荡整理态 势中。 上周市场动态方面， ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market continued its adjustment trend from October 27 to October 31, with a temporary easing of tensions in the US-China relationship following a summit meeting [1][2] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but expressed uncertainty regarding future actions in December, indicating a more hawkish tone [1][2] - The recent adjustment in domestic gold VAT policy may lead to increased costs for physical gold investments, potentially suppressing short-term demand [1][2] Group 2 - Following the easing of trade tensions and the results of the October Federal Reserve meeting, the gold market is expected to maintain a volatile adjustment pattern in November [2] - The next significant focus for the market will be the December Federal Reserve meeting, which will provide economic forecasts for 2026, potentially influencing future interest rate decisions [2] - The adjustment in VAT policy for gold distinguishes between investment and non-investment uses, leading to higher costs for investment gold products [2]

Market Overview - During the National Day holiday, the sentiment in the precious metals market continued to rise, driven by concerns over US-China trade disputes and risks in US regional banks, which boosted safe-haven demand [1][2] - In the week from October 13 to October 17, international gold prices surged, approaching $4400, while the RMB gold price reached a historical high of 1000 yuan per gram, marking a weekly increase of over 5%, the strongest performance since May [1][2] US Government Shutdown - The US government shutdown has reached its third-longest duration in history, with no signs of reconciliation between the two parties, indicating limited willingness from the Trump administration to reach a short-term agreement with the Democrats [1][2] Regional Bank Issues - Recent loan fraud incidents at US regional banks have raised concerns reminiscent of the systemic risks posed by the 2023 SVB crisis, although the affected banks are smaller and the current situation appears to be more of an isolated credit loss rather than a systemic issue [2][3] - The liquidity position of the involved regional banks is healthier compared to SVB during its crisis, suggesting that the current events may not lead to sustained financial turmoil, but the impact of the government shutdown on liquidity needs further observation [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that some liquidity indicators are tightening, and the Fed may halt balance sheet reduction in the coming months, providing marginal support to market liquidity [2][3] Investment Opportunities - The BoShi Gold ETF and its linked funds track the performance of gold prices in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, offering investors a new avenue for gold investment with a minimum purchase starting at 1 yuan [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the surge in the precious metals market during the National Day holiday, driven by uncertainties in U.S. government operations and economic data, leading to increased investment in safe-haven assets [1][2][3] - Gold prices have reached new historical highs, with international gold prices surpassing $4000 and RMB gold prices exceeding 900 yuan per gram, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [1][2] - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, which has further impacted market confidence and reinforced expectations for potential interest rate cuts [1][3] Group 2 - The escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions, including China's restrictions on rare earth exports and Trump's threats of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, has heightened market risk aversion [2] - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by both risk aversion and monetary easing, has led to increased allocations to gold, as investors seek to capitalize on favorable conditions [2] - The mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts reflect ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook, with some advocating for caution while others support further easing [3]

上周（9.8~9.12）黄金市场受到美国就业市场持续弱化和通胀平稳的影响，伴随即将开启的降息周 期，黄金仍受到市场普遍关注。 本报告版权归博时基金管理有限公司所有。 市场观点方面，过往一周黄金资产继续延续相对强势，伦敦现货黄金跃上3600美元关口，受到非农数 据下调和通胀数据平稳所提振的降息预期的推动。 本周9月美联储议息会议召开，首次降息即将落地，2Y美债已经定价了年内降息3次的预期，重点关注 季度末议息会议对后续路径的指引。降息周期伊始，虽然短期降息节奏会影响黄金的波动路径，但我 们对后续整体降息空间较为乐观，2026年美联储票委中，总统导向席位或占到绝对多数，美联储独立 性风险不仅影响远期利率路径，也对美元信用收缩的叙事形成支撑。与此对比的是，欧洲央行连续两 次会议维持利率不变，认为当前通胀压力已得到有效控制，此消彼长之下，美元汇率弱势将大概率维 持。 上周国际地缘冲突再度抬头，以色列对包括卡塔尔在内的多个国家和地区发起袭击，波兰正式签署协 议允许北约在其境内部署军队，不能排除后续地缘波动会引发连锁反应，波动上升的环境利好黄金资 产配置。 上周市场动态方面，美国8月通胀数据表现平稳。美国劳工统计局周四公 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resurgence of gold prices driven by weak economic data and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, attracting Western financial investors [1][2] - Gold prices reached a four-month high, supported by optimistic expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September following continuous weak economic indicators [1][2] - The market's strength is primarily driven by two factors: the confirmation of a rate cut cycle post-Jackson Hole meeting and Trump's announcement to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1][2] Group 2 - The recent increase in gold prices is largely attributed to Western ETF funds and COMEX net long positions, contrasting with previous market dynamics where Asian investors and central banks were the main drivers [2] - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has sparked a significant legal dispute regarding the independence of the U.S. central bank, with Cook filing a lawsuit against Trump [2] - The U.S. durable goods orders for July showed a smaller-than-expected decline, with a preliminary month-on-month decrease of 2.8%, compared to an expected decrease of 4% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the gold market experienced fluctuations, but improved trading sentiment followed Powell's dovish remarks at the central bank meeting, indicating a potential path for interest rate cuts starting in September [1][2] - Powell's comments on the labor market suggest rising risks of job losses and unemployment, which may necessitate a policy adjustment [1][2] - The implied probability of a rate cut in September increased significantly from 72% to 94% following Powell's statements [2] Group 2 - The recent marginal liquidity improvement due to changes in monetary policy is a key factor supporting gold prices, with a better fundamental environment compared to the second quarter [2] - The U.S. and EU announced a trade framework agreement, reducing tariffs on most EU goods to no more than 15%, with specific reductions on automotive tariffs contingent on EU legislative actions [2] - The U.S. is set to receive an additional $600 billion investment from Europe in strategic industries by 2028, along with commitments to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy products and at least $40 billion in U.S. AI chips [2] Group 3 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase in three months, indicating potential acceleration in layoffs and further weakening of the labor market [3] - The BoShi Gold ETF and its linked funds allow investors to track the performance of gold prices in RMB through investments in Shanghai Gold Exchange spot contracts [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market experienced fluctuations due to the Federal Reserve's personnel changes and disappointing non-farm employment data, which raised expectations for future monetary easing [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm employment data for July showed an increase of 73,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, with revisions to previous months indicating a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [3] - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand in Q2 2025, reaching 1,249 tons, with a substantial 45% increase in value to $132 billion, driven primarily by strong investment demand [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting showed a division among board members regarding interest rate decisions, with two members voting against the rate decision for the first time since 1993, indicating increasing political influence on monetary policy [2] - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler on August 1 further fueled market speculation about potential personnel changes at the Fed, which could impact future monetary policy [4] - The overall uncertainty in the market is expected to shift from tariff negotiations to expectations of a rate cut cycle, which may become a significant factor influencing gold prices in the near future [3]