Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's trade protectionism is reshaping the operational logic of the U.S. real estate market, with economists warning that 2025 may be a critical turning point due to the combined pressures of trade policy and economic cycles [1] Supply-Side Impact - The latest financial report from builder PulteGroup reveals the transmission effects of tariffs, with key building materials like bathroom fixtures and tiles seeing procurement costs rise due to a 10% global tariff policy, despite temporary exemptions for materials like copper and lumber [2] - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) indicates that the cost of single-family home construction has increased by 37% since 2020, with tariff-related costs accounting for 19% of this increase [2] - Labor market constraints are exacerbated by tightened immigration policies, leading to a labor shortage of 300,000 in the construction industry, which directly raises labor costs [2] - Developer willingness to start new projects has dropped to the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis due to the dual pressures of material tariffs and labor shortages [2] Demand-Side Pressure - Housing affordability is experiencing systemic deterioration, with the median U.S. household income now allocating 34% to mortgage payments, surpassing the historical warning line since the 1980s [2] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains high at 6.8%, having doubled from its 2020 low, despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates [2] - The Case-Shiller index shows that home prices are rising at a rate that consistently exceeds CPI growth, with actual home prices up 89% from their 2012 low [2] - Core inflation in housing rent has increased by 5.7% year-over-year, contributing significantly to price stickiness [2] Monetary Policy Dilemma - The structure of inflation is forcing monetary policy into a dilemma, with the Federal Reserve's vice chairman acknowledging that supply-side inflation from trade policies is undermining the effectiveness of demand management policies [4] - Market expectations indicate that there is less than 50 basis points of room for interest rate cuts before 2026, suggesting that mortgage rates may remain elevated for an extended period [4] Regional Disparities - Structural adjustments in the market are leading to increasing regional disparities, with cities in the Midwest like Chicago and Detroit maintaining a reasonable price-to-income ratio of 4.2, while high-cost areas like San Jose and Honolulu exceed 12 [5] - Fairweather warns that simply addressing spatial mismatches will not resolve fundamental issues for employment groups reliant on high-paying sectors like technology and finance [5] Proposed Solutions - To address systemic challenges, Fairweather suggests multi-layered solutions, including establishing a special impact assessment mechanism for tariff policies on the real estate market at the federal level [5] - At the local level, reforms to "Planning Commission 2.0" should incorporate housing affordability metrics into land development approval processes [5] - The housing crisis is fundamentally a failure of public policy, necessitating a comprehensive response framework that includes immigration, trade, and monetary policies [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade, prompting companies in Zhejiang to diversify their markets and seek new opportunities domestically and internationally [1][2] - Desai Group, a major shoe manufacturer, has seen a 30% year-on-year increase in orders from Europe, compensating for a decline in U.S. orders due to tariffs [1] - The company has shifted its workforce to focus on growing orders from other countries, indicating a strategic pivot in response to market challenges [1] Group 2 - Chenda Bathroom Appliances, which exports 50% of its products to the U.S., has faced delays in over 4 million yuan worth of orders due to tariffs, leading to a focus on finding new clients [2] - The company plans to double its participation in domestic and international exhibitions in 2024, targeting markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe [2] - Zhejiang Kaijia Crafts, which exports 40% of its products to the U.S., is also shifting focus to the domestic market while developing new products to mitigate the impact of declining foreign orders [2][3] Group 3 - Kaijia Crafts has begun utilizing social media platforms like Taobao and Douyin to promote its products, achieving daily sales of over 10,000 yuan [3] - The company is expanding its product range to include felt hats and scarves, aiming to offset losses from reduced foreign trade orders [3] - The overall strategy for these companies includes enhancing brand influence and market share through diversified product offerings and increased domestic sales efforts [1][2][3]