新华财经北京11月17日电日本政府周一公布的数据显示，日本经济年化收缩幅度为1.8%，按季度计算，该国GDP下滑0.4%，为六个季度 以来首次出现负增长。日债市场当天几乎全线下跌，收益率普遍上行，10年期日债收益率上行3.4BPs至1.734%。经济学家认为，日本经 济出现的首次萎缩，使日本央行下次加息的时间表进一步复杂化。 当天盘中及盘后交易时段，投资者在抛售除3个月期短债以外的日债，其中超长期日债的抛售情绪尤甚，20年期日债收益率涨3.2BPs至 2.748%，30年期日债收益率上涨5BPs至3.263%。 然而，一些经济学家表示，由于房地产行业对利率很敏感，在看到疲弱的结果后，政府可能会更加反对加息。日本央行下一次政策会议 定于12月18日至19日举行。 | 期限品种 | 收益率% | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | | JPN 3-MO | 0.439 | -0.046 | | JPN 2-YR | 0.935 | +0.006 A | | JPN 3-YR | 1.052 | +0.012 A | | JPN 5-YR | 1.258 | +0.011 A | | JPN 10-Y ...

Core Insights - Japan's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in September, indicating a slight rebound from August and highlighting the cost of living pressures the new government will face [1][1][1] - Rising energy costs are the primary driver behind the inflation increase, with key inflation indicators remaining at or above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for three and a half years [1][1][1] - Economists predict that the Bank of Japan may implement its next interest rate hike in December 2025 or January 2026, with a shift in expectations for a 25 basis point increase from October to December [1][1][1] Economic Policy Implications - The new Prime Minister, Sanna Takashi, has identified addressing the cost of living crisis as a key focus of her administration, with current inflation data providing a basis for her policy agenda [1][1][1] - The coordination between the government and the Bank of Japan regarding monetary policy will be tested as the new administration seeks to manage inflation while addressing economic challenges [1][1][1]

来源：滚动播报 美联储米兰：由于被动的货币政策收紧以及通胀前景改善，需要降息。 ...

与此同时，在法国总理勒科尔尼短暂执政（仅27天）后辞职，欧元持续走低，欧洲大陆日益加剧的政治不确定 性也对欧元造成了冲击。 因此，日元和欧元的困境实际上保护了美元免受政府停摆担忧的影响。但如果美国政府停摆持续到10月下旬甚 至11月，美元可能难以维持其上涨势头。 以下是KCMTrade首席分析师兼福布斯顾问委员会成员Tim Waterer带来的本周汇评内容： 在其他条件相同的情况下，美元通常不会在美国政府关门期间获得提振。这是因为政府关门对经济增长（或 GDP）的影响通常是负面而非正面的。理论上，经济增长放缓导致降息的可能性大于加息。但自上周三最新一 次美国政府关门生效以来，美元（以美元指数（DXY）衡量）已上涨0.9%。 美元这种略显违反直觉的上涨而非下跌走势，受到市场预期政府关门可能会持续数周而不是数月的影响，因此 限制了对GDP的负面影响程度。然而，日元和欧元的疲软也提振了美元。 受日本自民党（自民党）选举结果影响，美元兑日元汇率本周上涨3%。高市胜选或将阻止日本央行（BOJ）加 息的意图。如果通胀维持在当前水平，BOJ很可能仍需在年底前加息，但货币政策收紧的时间表可能会从10月 推迟到12月。但有迹象 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversy surrounding Kevin Hassett's defense of the Federal Reserve's independence while simultaneously supporting President Trump's criticisms of it, highlighting the complexities within the Trump administration regarding this sensitive topic [1]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Hassett's first accusation is that the Federal Reserve's inflation predictions in 2021 demonstrate partisan bias, claiming that the Fed allowed inflation to spiral out of control under the Biden administration [2]. - Timiraos points out that during Biden's presidency, five out of six Federal Reserve governors were appointed during Trump's first term, including current Chair Jerome Powell, indicating a lack of partisan influence from the Biden administration [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Timiraos notes that the Federal Reserve began significantly raising interest rates once it recognized that its monetary policy was off track, with Biden-appointed governors filling positions starting in the second quarter of 2022 [3]. - The first rate hike of 75 basis points occurred in June 2022, with subsequent hikes also supported by the newly appointed governors [3]. Group 3: Timing of Policy Tightening - Hassett's second claim is that the Federal Reserve only began tightening monetary policy after Biden nominated Powell for a second term, which was announced on November 22, 2021 [4]. - Timiraos counters that the Fed had already announced a tapering of bond purchases on November 3, 2021, indicating that the decision to tighten policy was not solely dependent on Biden's nomination [4]. Group 4: Election-Year Rate Cuts - Hassett's third accusation is that the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut rates before the last election to aid Democratic candidate Kamala Harris [5]. - Timiraos highlights that Hassett did not express this view at the time and had previously defended the rate cut as a wise decision based on available data [5][6].

Group 1: Japanese Economic Indicators - Japan's balance of trade for August showed a deficit of ¥243 billion, significantly better than the expected ¥514 billion, indicating a potential easing of the impact from new American tariffs [1] - Exports declined by only 0.1% in August, while imports fell by 5.2%, suggesting a stabilization in trade dynamics [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement three rate cuts by the end of the year, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to hike rates, with a single hike likely at the meeting on 30 October [2] - Current market sentiment suggests a potential increase in the BoJ's key policy rate to 0.75%, creating a significant interest rate differential with the Fed [2] Group 3: Inflation Trends - Japanese inflation appears to have peaked in January 2025, with a gradual downtrend observed since then, although the pace of decline may not be sufficient for the BoJ to abandon its ultra-easy policy [3] - Upcoming inflation data is expected to show a drop to 2.8%, influenced by government efforts to moderate food prices, particularly rice [4] Group 4: Currency Market Reactions - The USDJPY reached its lowest level since late July, driven by better-than-expected Japanese trade data and expectations of a Fed rate cut [6] - Despite concerns about the Japanese economy, particularly with declining exports, market sentiment has shifted towards the American economy and job market [6]

Group 1 - The next pain point for bond traders may emerge in the five-year segment of the yield curve, particularly in Japan and Germany, as both countries are experiencing shifts in their economic policies and outlooks [1][3] - Short-term bonds are heavily influenced by monetary policy expectations, while bonds with maturities of 10 years or more are more sensitive to inflation and deficit concerns, making five-year bonds a "sweet spot" in the global bond market [3] - The yield on German five-year government bonds has dropped over 30 basis points from its peak in March, while the 10-year yield has decreased by about 25 basis points [3] Group 2 - Despite ongoing selling pressure in Germany and Japan, it is expected that bearish pressure will shift from the long end of the yield curve to the mid-section, leading to underperformance of five-year bonds in these countries compared to other maturities [3] - The recent issuance of five-year Japanese government bonds saw the strongest demand since June, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Expectations - Global inflation and tightening monetary policy have led to increased concerns about liquidity, putting pressure on risk assets such as stocks and bonds, indirectly affecting fund performance [3] - Domestic CPI data for March fell below expectations, raising doubts about the strength of economic recovery and leading to downward adjustments in profit expectations for certain industries [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Conflicts - Recent tensions in the Middle East and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict have driven up prices of commodities like oil, increasing global supply chain uncertainties and heightening investor risk aversion [5] Group 3: Industry and Policy Adjustments - Regulatory changes have intensified scrutiny on certain sectors, such as real estate and platform economy, causing significant declines in related sectors like Chinese concept stocks and real estate bonds, which in turn drag down the net value of related thematic funds [6] - Rumors of a "fund fee reform" could further compress management fee income, raising concerns about the industry's profit model [6] - High-performing sectors in Q1, such as technology and new energy, have experienced profit-taking, leading to a shift of funds towards defensive assets like consumer goods and utilities, putting short-term pressure on growth-oriented funds [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - A wave of redemptions triggered by net value declines has forced fund managers to sell holdings, exacerbating market downturns, particularly in small-cap stocks and less liquid bonds [8] - Since March, foreign capital has continuously reduced holdings in A-shares, with a cumulative net outflow exceeding 20 billion, negatively impacting the performance of blue-chip stocks and the overall market index [8] Group 5: Short-term Technical Factors - The end of the quarter has led to portfolio adjustments by institutions, amplifying market volatility [8] - The derivatives market has seen a chain reaction with expanded index futures discounts and soaring options volatility, intensifying market panic [8]

Core Viewpoint - The rising trajectory of Japanese government bond yields is attracting domestic investors to shift their funds back to Japan, potentially leading to downward pressure on international currency exchange rates and Western stock markets [1][3]. Group 1: Japanese Government Bonds - Japanese investors are expected to find government bond yields attractive enough to invest domestically, moving away from U.S. Treasuries [3][4]. - The report indicates that by the end of next year, Japanese investors could achieve excess returns of approximately 30 to 120 basis points depending on the segment of the yield curve they choose to invest in [3][6]. - The shift in investment focus is anticipated to occur around 2026, marking a significant change in investor behavior [3][6]. Group 2: Currency and Global Markets - The anticipated increase in Japanese government bond yields could lead to a stronger yen and a weaker dollar, impacting global capital flows and potentially causing a re-evaluation of asset valuations in U.S. Treasuries and equities [5][7]. - If Japanese life insurance companies increase their hedge ratio from 45% to 60%, it could result in approximately $173 billion flowing from dollars to yen, supporting the yen's appreciation [5][6]. - The shift in currency dynamics and the potential for rising yields in Japan may lead to a tightening of global financial market liquidity [7]. Group 3: Economic Predictions - RBC economists predict that by the end of next year, Japan's overnight interest rate will rise by about 50 basis points, while U.S. benchmark borrowing costs will decrease by approximately 130 basis points [4]. - The transition from ultra-loose monetary policy to tightening by the Bank of Japan has led to increased focus on the pricing of Japanese government bonds, with market-driven supply and demand becoming more influential [6]. - The expected changes in interest rates and currency hedging costs are critical variables for the re-pricing of global interest rates, exchange rates, and stock-bond market dynamics in 2025-2026 [6].

Group 1 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masayoshi Amamiya, signaled a continued tightening of monetary policy, stating that further interest rate hikes are an "appropriate policy choice" due to the current economic recovery and improving prices [1] - Despite three interest rate hikes this year, Japan's real interest rates remain significantly negative, indicating that the current tightening is insufficient to fully offset inflation, allowing room for further rate increases [1] - Amamiya emphasized a shift in policy tools, prioritizing adjustments to short-term policy rates over frequent changes in government bond purchase levels, marking a significant transition towards "price-based control" [1] Group 2 - Amamiya provided a clear roadmap for the reform of the government bond market, advocating for a gradual reduction in the central bank's bond purchases to allow long-term interest rates to be determined by market supply and demand [2] - He highlighted the importance of "risk management," noting multiple challenges facing the Japanese economy, including global economic slowdown, rising supply chain costs due to protectionism, and energy price volatility from geopolitical conflicts [2] - The Bank of Japan has established a rapid response mechanism to intervene promptly if economic indicators deviate from baseline expectations, reflecting a cautious approach to recent market optimism [2] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is developing a monthly bond purchase standard aligned with an "appropriate reserve level," indicating that future purchase volumes will be dynamically adjusted based on economic needs, marking the official start of quantitative tightening (QT) [3]