有"新美联储通讯社"之称的资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos周五在社交媒体X发文，批评美国总统特 朗普的首席经济顾问哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）最近为特朗普质疑美联储独立性辩护的言论。 哈塞特的第二项指控是，直到拜登提名鲍威尔继续担任美联储主席后，美联储才开始收紧货币政策。鲍 威尔连任的任命于2021年11月22日宣布，拜登在11月19日告知鲍威尔这一决定。 Timiraos指出，白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特在最近接受媒体采访时，一边为美联储的独立性辩护， 称其"毋庸置疑重要"，同时却又为特朗普质疑美联储独立性的行为辩解，认为有党派偏向性的一方是美 联储。他的部分指责甚至和他本人之前的说辞自相矛盾。 Timiraos认为，鉴于哈塞特是下任美联储主席的热门人选，他对美联储的这种指责相当不妥。Timiraos 在推文中质疑："这种指控的证据是什么？" 这一争议再次凸显了美联储独立性这一敏感话题在特朗普政府内部的复杂立场，也反映出市场对未来货 币政策走向的关注。 质疑通胀期间美联储表现 据Timiraos总结，此次采访中，哈塞特提出的第一项指控是，美联储在2021年通胀预测上的失误证明了 其有党派 ...

Group 1: Japanese Economic Indicators - Japan's balance of trade for August showed a deficit of ¥243 billion, significantly better than the expected ¥514 billion, indicating a potential easing of the impact from new American tariffs [1] - Exports declined by only 0.1% in August, while imports fell by 5.2%, suggesting a stabilization in trade dynamics [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement three rate cuts by the end of the year, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to hike rates, with a single hike likely at the meeting on 30 October [2] - Current market sentiment suggests a potential increase in the BoJ's key policy rate to 0.75%, creating a significant interest rate differential with the Fed [2] Group 3: Inflation Trends - Japanese inflation appears to have peaked in January 2025, with a gradual downtrend observed since then, although the pace of decline may not be sufficient for the BoJ to abandon its ultra-easy policy [3] - Upcoming inflation data is expected to show a drop to 2.8%, influenced by government efforts to moderate food prices, particularly rice [4] Group 4: Currency Market Reactions - The USDJPY reached its lowest level since late July, driven by better-than-expected Japanese trade data and expectations of a Fed rate cut [6] - Despite concerns about the Japanese economy, particularly with declining exports, market sentiment has shifted towards the American economy and job market [6]

Group 1 - The next pain point for bond traders may emerge in the five-year segment of the yield curve, particularly in Japan and Germany, as both countries are experiencing shifts in their economic policies and outlooks [1][3] - Short-term bonds are heavily influenced by monetary policy expectations, while bonds with maturities of 10 years or more are more sensitive to inflation and deficit concerns, making five-year bonds a "sweet spot" in the global bond market [3] - The yield on German five-year government bonds has dropped over 30 basis points from its peak in March, while the 10-year yield has decreased by about 25 basis points [3] Group 2 - Despite ongoing selling pressure in Germany and Japan, it is expected that bearish pressure will shift from the long end of the yield curve to the mid-section, leading to underperformance of five-year bonds in these countries compared to other maturities [3] - The recent issuance of five-year Japanese government bonds saw the strongest demand since June, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Expectations - Global inflation and tightening monetary policy have led to increased concerns about liquidity, putting pressure on risk assets such as stocks and bonds, indirectly affecting fund performance [3] - Domestic CPI data for March fell below expectations, raising doubts about the strength of economic recovery and leading to downward adjustments in profit expectations for certain industries [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Conflicts - Recent tensions in the Middle East and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict have driven up prices of commodities like oil, increasing global supply chain uncertainties and heightening investor risk aversion [5] Group 3: Industry and Policy Adjustments - Regulatory changes have intensified scrutiny on certain sectors, such as real estate and platform economy, causing significant declines in related sectors like Chinese concept stocks and real estate bonds, which in turn drag down the net value of related thematic funds [6] - Rumors of a "fund fee reform" could further compress management fee income, raising concerns about the industry's profit model [6] - High-performing sectors in Q1, such as technology and new energy, have experienced profit-taking, leading to a shift of funds towards defensive assets like consumer goods and utilities, putting short-term pressure on growth-oriented funds [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - A wave of redemptions triggered by net value declines has forced fund managers to sell holdings, exacerbating market downturns, particularly in small-cap stocks and less liquid bonds [8] - Since March, foreign capital has continuously reduced holdings in A-shares, with a cumulative net outflow exceeding 20 billion, negatively impacting the performance of blue-chip stocks and the overall market index [8] Group 5: Short-term Technical Factors - The end of the quarter has led to portfolio adjustments by institutions, amplifying market volatility [8] - The derivatives market has seen a chain reaction with expanded index futures discounts and soaring options volatility, intensifying market panic [8]

Core Viewpoint - The rising trajectory of Japanese government bond yields is attracting domestic investors to shift their funds back to Japan, potentially leading to downward pressure on international currency exchange rates and Western stock markets [1][3]. Group 1: Japanese Government Bonds - Japanese investors are expected to find government bond yields attractive enough to invest domestically, moving away from U.S. Treasuries [3][4]. - The report indicates that by the end of next year, Japanese investors could achieve excess returns of approximately 30 to 120 basis points depending on the segment of the yield curve they choose to invest in [3][6]. - The shift in investment focus is anticipated to occur around 2026, marking a significant change in investor behavior [3][6]. Group 2: Currency and Global Markets - The anticipated increase in Japanese government bond yields could lead to a stronger yen and a weaker dollar, impacting global capital flows and potentially causing a re-evaluation of asset valuations in U.S. Treasuries and equities [5][7]. - If Japanese life insurance companies increase their hedge ratio from 45% to 60%, it could result in approximately $173 billion flowing from dollars to yen, supporting the yen's appreciation [5][6]. - The shift in currency dynamics and the potential for rising yields in Japan may lead to a tightening of global financial market liquidity [7]. Group 3: Economic Predictions - RBC economists predict that by the end of next year, Japan's overnight interest rate will rise by about 50 basis points, while U.S. benchmark borrowing costs will decrease by approximately 130 basis points [4]. - The transition from ultra-loose monetary policy to tightening by the Bank of Japan has led to increased focus on the pricing of Japanese government bonds, with market-driven supply and demand becoming more influential [6]. - The expected changes in interest rates and currency hedging costs are critical variables for the re-pricing of global interest rates, exchange rates, and stock-bond market dynamics in 2025-2026 [6].

Group 1 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masayoshi Amamiya, signaled a continued tightening of monetary policy, stating that further interest rate hikes are an "appropriate policy choice" due to the current economic recovery and improving prices [1] - Despite three interest rate hikes this year, Japan's real interest rates remain significantly negative, indicating that the current tightening is insufficient to fully offset inflation, allowing room for further rate increases [1] - Amamiya emphasized a shift in policy tools, prioritizing adjustments to short-term policy rates over frequent changes in government bond purchase levels, marking a significant transition towards "price-based control" [1] Group 2 - Amamiya provided a clear roadmap for the reform of the government bond market, advocating for a gradual reduction in the central bank's bond purchases to allow long-term interest rates to be determined by market supply and demand [2] - He highlighted the importance of "risk management," noting multiple challenges facing the Japanese economy, including global economic slowdown, rising supply chain costs due to protectionism, and energy price volatility from geopolitical conflicts [2] - The Bank of Japan has established a rapid response mechanism to intervene promptly if economic indicators deviate from baseline expectations, reflecting a cautious approach to recent market optimism [2] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is developing a monthly bond purchase standard aligned with an "appropriate reserve level," indicating that future purchase volumes will be dynamically adjusted based on economic needs, marking the official start of quantitative tightening (QT) [3]

Group 1 - A significant majority of economists, nearly two-thirds, believe that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points later this year, an increase from just over half in the previous month [1] - Despite recent weak employment data in the U.S. reviving bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, 70% of analysts indicate that this will not delay the Bank of Japan's tightening of monetary policy [1] - Following over three years of consumer inflation exceeding the 2% target, the Bank of Japan faces pressure to raise rates, although it remains cautious due to concerns about U.S. tariffs impacting economic growth [1] Group 2 - In a survey conducted from August 12 to 19, 67 out of 73 economists (92%) predict that the Bank of Japan will not adjust interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting in mid-September [1] - Among 71 economists, 63% expect the Bank of Japan to raise the benchmark lending rate from 0.50% to at least 0.75% in the next quarter, an increase from 54% in the previous survey [1] - The preferred timing for the next rate hike among 40 economists is October (38%), followed by January next year (30%) and December this year (18%) [1] Group 3 - The financial markets still anticipate that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year [3] - Over three-quarters of economists support or somewhat support the Japan-U.S. trade agreement [3] - Concerns are raised regarding potential fiscal expansion pressures following the opposition party's calls to lower the consumption tax and their recent progress in the Senate elections [3] Group 4 - There is an increasing risk that considerations for fiscal sustainability may fall below acceptable levels [4] - Extreme fiscal expansion is deemed unlikely, as the ruling party remains cautious about increasing the primary deficit in the context of rising interest rates [4] - There is no clear consensus among respondents regarding which potential successor to the Prime Minister would implement economic policies most likely to stimulate medium to long-term growth [5]

Group 1 - A significant majority of economists, nearly two-thirds, believe that the Bank of Japan will raise its key interest rate by at least 25 basis points later this year, a notable increase from less than half a month ago [1] - Despite recent weakness in the U.S. job market leading to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, 70% of analysts indicate that this alone will not delay the Bank of Japan's tightening monetary policy [1] - Financial markets anticipate another 25 basis point rate hike from the Bank of Japan by the end of the year, following over three years of consumer inflation exceeding the 2% target [1] Group 2 - In a survey conducted from August 12 to 19, 92% of economists predicted that the Bank of Japan would not adjust rates in the upcoming mid-September policy meeting, while 63% expect an increase in the next quarter [1] - Among economists who specified the month for the next rate hike, 38% chose October, followed by 30% for January next year, and 18% for December this year [1] Group 3 - T&D Asset Management's chief strategist noted that the Bank of Japan will be able to respond more effectively to U.S. monetary policy and domestic political dynamics in October, coinciding with the release of its quarterly outlook report [2] - Over three-quarters of economists expressed support for a trade agreement between Japan and the U.S., while more than two-thirds expressed concern over increased fiscal spending pressure following the opposition party's victory in the recent Senate elections [2] - Concerns about short-sighted policy choices have been raised due to the ruling coalition losing its majority in the House of Representatives last year, potentially compromising fiscal sustainability [2] Group 4 - There is no clear consensus among respondents regarding which potential candidates for the next prime minister could formulate policies most likely to stimulate medium- to long-term economic growth [3]

澳洲联储会议纪要：尽管金融状况已有所缓和，成员一致认为货币政策适度收紧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker emphasizes that the inflation target has not yet been reached, making it crucial to maintain a tightening monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is focused on achieving its inflation target before considering any changes to its current monetary policy stance [1] - Harker highlights the importance of continued monetary policy tightening to combat persistent inflation [1]