Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East, particularly between the US, Israel, and Iran, which shows no signs of easing, leading to increased uncertainty in the region [1] - Oil prices have risen again, putting pressure on global stock markets, while the US dollar has strengthened and the Japanese yen continues to depreciate [1] - Concerns over tightening monetary policies from major central banks have increased, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance on inflation expectations, while the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a more hawkish tone regarding rising energy prices [1] Group 2 - In the US, the job market remains stable, with initial jobless claims steady and continuing claims decreasing [1] - As of March 21, the 10-year US Treasury real interest rates have risen significantly due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy, while the 10-year inflation expectations remain relatively stable [1] - In Europe, the consumer confidence index has weakened significantly, reaching a new low since October 2023, likely influenced by the rising energy prices stemming from the military conflict [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices showed a high - level volatile trend. Tensions in the Middle East at the beginning of the week affected energy markets, causing precious metal prices to drop sharply on Monday. Trump's delay in attacking Iran led to a fall in oil prices, a decrease in inflation concerns, a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in market risk appetite, which boosted precious metal prices. Due to the frequent switching of geopolitical signals, market sentiment was cautious [2][5]. - The US submitted a 15 - point proposal to end the war to Iran via Pakistan. Iran rejected the proposal and put forward clear pre - conditions. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities by ten days, with the deadline extended to April 6. The Pentagon is planning a "weeks - long ground operation", and the USS Tripoli and 3,500 soldiers have arrived in the Middle East. Iran is ready to respond and has organized over a million people for ground combat. The ongoing US - Iran conflict has strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate hikes by the US and European central banks [2][6]. - The current US - Iran negotiation is at a deadlock. Geopolitical signals are switching frequently, and the negotiation is likely to be a long - drawn - out process, which will keep oil prices high. Precious metals are still suppressed by the expectation of monetary policy tightening due to rising inflation, and the adjustment is not over. The large - scale sale of gold reserves by the Turkish central bank to stabilize the exchange rate also puts pressure on gold prices. It is expected that precious metal prices will show a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [2][7][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate/% | Total Trading Volume/Hand | Total Open Interest/Hand | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 998.66 | - 40.56 | - 3.90 | 169083 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 992.45 | - 48.15 | - 4.63 | 81692 | 239470 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4521.30 | 29.30 | 0.65 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 17489 | - 2491 | - 12.47 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 17467 | - 313 | - 1.76 | 293094 | 2849646 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 69.77 | 1.96 | 2.89 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 493.05 | - 16.70 | - 3.28 | 5790 | 7356 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 477.04 | - 31.84 | - 6.26 | | | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 1866.40 | - 31.84 | - 2.80 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 358.20 | - 31.84 | - 2.89 | 2838 | 7356 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1384.50 | - 31.84 | - 2.12 | | | US dollars/ounce | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The precious metal market was affected by the Middle East situation last week. Tensions at the beginning of the week led to a price drop, and Trump's delay in the attack on Iran led to a price rebound. The market is cautious due to the frequent switching of geopolitical signals [2][5]. - The US - Iran conflict continues, and the market's expectation of interest rate hikes by the US and European central banks is strengthening. The Fed's policy is considered to be dragging down the economy, and the inflation forecast has been raised. The European Central Bank will take action if necessary [6]. - The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock, and it is expected to be a long - term process, keeping oil prices high. Precious metals are under pressure from inflation - driven monetary policy tightening expectations, and the Turkish central bank's gold sales also put pressure on prices. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to be weak and volatile [7][8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The US March composite PMI unexpectedly dropped to 51.4, with manufacturing expansion accelerating and service - sector growth slowing [9]. - The eurozone March composite PMI fell to a 10 - month low, and France's PMI contracted for three consecutive months, sounding a stagflation alarm [9]. - Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of a US economic recession due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, soaring oil prices, and structural weakness in the labor market. Moody's model shows a 48.6% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, and Goldman Sachs has raised the forecast to 30% [9]. - The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and rise slightly to 3% in 2027. The US economic growth rate is expected to slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the US inflation rate will reach 4.2% this year, much higher than the Fed's expectation [9]. - The US February import prices rose 1.3% month - on - month, the largest single - month increase since March 2022, mainly driven by higher oil and natural gas prices. Export prices rose 1.5% month - on - month, the largest single - month increase since May 2022 [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 5,000 to 210,000, in line with market expectations. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 32,000 to 1,819,000, the lowest level in nearly two years [10]. - The Turkish central bank's gold reserves decreased by 6 tons in the week of March 13 and 52.4 tons in the week of March 20. Bloomberg reported that the Turkish central bank may continue to sell gold to prevent the lira from depreciating further [10]. - Gold ETFs have seen an outflow of about 43 tons in the past two weeks [10]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, inventory changes of COMEX and LBMA gold and silver, non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver, and the relationship between gold prices and various factors such as the US dollar, copper prices, inflation expectations, and VIX index [11][12][14][15][16][17][18][20][21][23][24][25][27][28][30][31][32][34][35][36][38][39][41][42][45][47][49][50][51]

Central Banks' Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is signaling a potential tightening of monetary policy due to rising crude oil prices and inflation concerns linked to Middle Eastern tensions [2] - The Bank of England (BoE) is considering an interest rate hike by April, influenced by inflation related to the Iran conflict [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is prepared to take action if inflation rises significantly, anticipating that ongoing tensions could drive prices higher [3] Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has increased its inflation forecast due to higher energy prices, maintaining a hawkish outlook with only one expected rate cut this year and another in 2027 [4] - High US Treasury yields are contributing to a stronger US dollar, impacting commodities like gold and silver [4] Geopolitical Tensions - US President Donald Trump has threatened military action against Iran's energy sector unless the Strait of Hormuz is opened within 48 hours, prompting a warning from Iran about retaliatory strikes on regional infrastructure [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings 2. Core Views of the Report - Main broad - based indices may enter a stage of bottom - seeking and stabilization [3] - Gold prices are expected to show high - volatility range - bound movement in the short term. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation and the upcoming non - farm payroll report [4][5] - Silver is expected to follow the gold's trend in the short term, and its downside space may be relatively limited. Attention should be paid to COMEX inventory changes and global manufacturing PMI data [6][7] - For the chemical industry, short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and inventory pressure. The medium - term fundamentals are strong, but technical over - buying requires caution against correction risks [8] - For the agricultural products, the short - term upward space of corn is limited, and there may be a correction risk; peanut futures are expected to maintain range - bound movement; cotton prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term; soybean meal and soybean oil may fluctuate in a range; rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short term; rapeseed oil should pay attention to the upper price platform pressure; the pig price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the farming side's slaughter situation; egg prices may continue to run at a low level, and medium - long - term attention should be paid to the farming side's replenishment and culling situation [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] - For the metals, Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern; Shanghai aluminum operation requires caution, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended; alumina supply is expected to be in excess, but there is support near the cost line; cast aluminum alloy prices are strongly linked to Shanghai aluminum, and attention should be paid to cost and demand marginal changes; lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue the volatile and strong trend; industrial silicon may not have a trend market in the short term, and waiting and seeing is recommended; polysilicon trading is sluggish, and participation is not recommended [25][26][27][29][30][31][32] - For the black metals, stainless steel may fluctuate in the short term; steel prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be strongly volatile; iron ore may maintain a bearish trend, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and demand repair rhythm; coking coal and coke may maintain a weak - volatile pattern in the short term [33][34][35][36][37][38][39] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Information**: In 2026, the government work report set the tone of implementing a more proactive and effective macro - policy. The economy is in a mild recovery stage, with rising prices but a weak manufacturing PMI, indicating that the endogenous economic power is still being repaired. The low - interest - rate environment supports the valuation of equity assets, and the expected PPI recovery is beneficial to the cyclical sectors and the overall corporate profit expectations [3] - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the leading gainers included non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and electronics, while the leading decliners included coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and building decoration. The current market sector rotation shows a clear new - quality productivity orientation, with funds flowing from traditional cyclical, financial, and real - estate sectors to science - and - technology innovation, high - end manufacturing, and upstream material sectors [3] - **Reference View**: Main broad - based indices may enter a stage of bottom - seeking and stabilization [3] Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The US ADP employment in February added 63,000 jobs, higher than the market expectation of 50,000, strengthening the resilience of the labor market. The Middle East military conflict has entered the sixth day, causing concerns about energy supply and inflation transmission [4] - **Market Analysis**: On March 5, the Asian session of spot gold recovered part of the previous day's losses. The gold market is in a game between geopolitical risk - aversion demand and changes in monetary policy expectations. Strong employment data has led to a re - pricing of the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The strong US dollar index suppresses the valuation of gold [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Gold prices are expected to show high - volatility range - bound movement in the short term. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation and the upcoming non - farm payroll report [4][5] Silver - **External Price and Inventory**: The silver market performs weaker than gold. The COMEX registered deliverable silver inventory has dropped to a very low level of 88.77 million ounces, a significant decrease of about 30% compared to early January. China has implemented export controls on silver since January [6] - **Market Analysis**: Silver presents a pattern of "physical shortage support" and "industrial demand concerns" intertwined. If the inventory level further decreases, it may strengthen the physical - level support. Geopolitical conflicts may suppress manufacturing demand [6][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Silver is expected to follow the gold's trend in the short term, and its downside space may be relatively limited. Attention should be paid to COMEX inventory changes and global manufacturing PMI data [6][7] Chemical Industry PTA - **Spot Information**: The East China spot price is 5,805 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), and the basis is - 32 yuan/ton (+13 yuan/ton) [8] - **Market Analysis**: The US - Iran conflict has pushed up the cost price. The PTA processing fee has been significantly repaired. The average PTA processing interval in China is 416.31 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.13% and a year - on - year increase of 61.06%. The device start - up rate has rebounded to 76.53% (+6.17%). The industry shows a pattern of inventory accumulation, and the demand has been repaired after the festival [8] - **Reference View**: Short - term attention should be paid to the continuity of geopolitical disturbances and inventory pressure. The medium - term fundamentals are strong, but technical over - buying requires caution against correction risks [8] Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The spot price in East China is 4,170 yuan/ton (+196 yuan/ton), and the basis is - 14 yuan/ton (+90 yuan/ton) [9] - **Market Analysis**: After the festival, the production has steadily increased. The total production has reached 42.98 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.77%. The coal - chemical production is 15.83 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.96%. The port inventory in East China has increased. The demand has increased, but the high port inventory still suppresses the price [9] - **Reference View**: Attention should be paid to the cost - side oil price trend and the downstream resumption of work rhythm [9] Plastic - **Spot Information**: The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [10] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the start - up rate of polyethylene devices in China has decreased slightly. The demand side shows that the overall start - up rate of downstream enterprises is 18.22%. The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises is 57.97 million tons. The futures price has risen for four consecutive days due to the Iran situation. In the short term, polyethylene will mainly fluctuate in a range, and there may be upward space after inventory digestion and full resumption of work by downstream enterprises [10] - **Reference View**: It is expected that plastic will fluctuate in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [10] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1188 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions [11] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the overall start - up rate of soda ash is 86.77%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.73%, and the production is 80.70 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.61 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average. The market may enter a stage of game between weak reality and external factors [11] - **Reference View**: The futures market rebounded slightly yesterday. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on bottom - range fluctuations [11] Glass - **Spot Information**: The market price of 5mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area is 1023 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions [13] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the start - up rate of float glass is 71.19%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.58%, and the weekly production is 103.84 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13 million tons. The inventory has continued to accumulate. The terminal demand is weak, and the downstream start - up is weak. The market may be disturbed by global energy price surges and the two sessions [13] - **Reference View**: The futures market fluctuated narrowly yesterday. In the short term, it is recommended to adopt a bottom - range fluctuation strategy [13] Methanol - **Spot Information**: The spot prices in Zhejiang, Xinjiang, and Hebei have different fluctuations [14] - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the methanol main contract MA605 has decreased. The port inventory has decreased slightly. The domestic methanol industry start - up rate is high, but the demand from MTO and MTBE devices and traditional downstream industries is weak. The geopolitical trading logic and logistics uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz increase market uncertainty [14] - **Reference View**: The futures price may fluctuate in a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the risk of a decline due to the ebb of geopolitical premium or oil price fluctuations. Track the resumption progress of Iranian devices, port inventory reduction, and the increase in MTO device load [14] Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China, North China, and Huanghuai are provided [15] - **Market Analysis**: The February USDA supply - demand report has limited adjustments to US corn data. Domestically, the corn quality in the Northeast is good, but the short - term supply is tight due to weather and state - reserve rotation. If the weather warms up, the market supply may increase, and downstream enterprises have limited willingness to accept high - priced corn [15] - **Reference View**: The short - term upward space of corn is limited, and there may be a correction risk [15] Peanut - **Spot Price**: Peanut prices are mainly stable, with individual regions having slight adjustments. The market trading is not active [16] - **Market Analysis**: After the Lantern Festival, the market trading is gradually recovering, and the supply may increase with the temperature rise. The demand from small food factories has not started, but some large oil mills have raised the purchase price. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak [16] - **Reference View**: Peanut futures are expected to maintain range - bound movement, and cautious operation is recommended [16] Cotton - **Spot Information**: The China Cotton Spot Price Index (CC3128B) is 16,583 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of Xinjiang cotton is 16,396 yuan/ton [17] - **Market Analysis**: The US Department of Agriculture expects a decline in production and ending inventory in China and the US, and the macro - environment is favorable for demand. The new cotton planting will start in March, and the cotton planting area is expected to decline in the long term. The downstream enterprises are resuming work, and the peak consumption season is coming [17] - **Reference View**: Cotton prices will fluctuate in a range in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended [17] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions vary [18] - **Market Analysis**: Globally, the external market trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and biodiesel - stimulated domestic demand. South American soybeans are in the harvest season, and the market expects a bumper harvest. Domestically, high costs and abundant supply are in a game, and the downstream replenishment is limited [18] - **Reference View**: Soybean meal may fluctuate in a range, and cautious operation is recommended [18] Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of soybean oil in different regions have slightly increased [19] - **Market Analysis**: Globally, geopolitical conflicts and bio - fuel policies have pushed up the price of US soybean oil. Domestically, soybean oil is entering the off - season, and the market is dominated by macro - emotions [19] - **Reference View**: Soybean oil has stopped rising and is adjusting. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure [19] Rapeseed Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of imported powder meal in Macong Port is RM2605 + 40 yuan/ton, and the basis remains unchanged [20] - **Market Analysis**: The suspension of the 100% tariff on Canadian oil cakes is optimistic for US soybean demand, but the pressure from Brazilian soybean harvest may suppress the price. The supply is expected to recover, and the downstream demand is weak [20] - **Reference View**: The 2605 contract of rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short term [20] Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Market**: The basis price of imported and pressed tertiary rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang is OI05 + 450 yuan/ton, and the basis remains unchanged [21] - **Market Analysis**: The US - Iran conflict and the expected US bio - fuel policy have driven up the price of domestic vegetable oils. The increase in the anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed has limited impact. The current market is in the off - season, and the spot market is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment [21] - **Reference View**: For the 2605 contract of rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the upper price platform pressure and risk prevention [21] Pig - **Spot Market**: The average price of ternary hybrid pigs in major production and sales areas has decreased [22] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic pig market continues to be weak. The supply is abundant due to pre - Spring Festival concentrated slaughter and continuous release of production capacity. The demand is weak as consumers are still consuming pre - holiday stocks, and the slaughter enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The pig price is under pressure in the near term [22][23] - **Reference View**: Attention should be paid to the farming side's slaughter situation [23] Egg - **Spot Market**: The average egg price in the main production areas has decreased [24] - **Market Analysis**: The previous - period replenishment was relatively low, and the new - laying pressure is not large. The egg - laying hen inventory is still declining. The culling rhythm of old hens is slow, but the farming side's culling willingness may increase as the egg price falls. The demand is weak after the end of stocking, and the egg price may continue to run at a low level [24] - **Reference View**: Medium - long - term attention should be paid to the farming side's replenishment and culling situation [24] Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The spot price of East China copper is 101,575 (+145) yuan/ton, with a premium of 445 [25] - **Market Analysis**: The supply - side pressure is significant, with the domestic social inventory reaching a historical high. The copper concentrate processing fee is in a deep negative range, indicating a tight supply at the mine end. The demand shows a structural differentiation, with the downstream processing link weak but the power grid investment and new - energy - related orders strong. The short - term price is suppressed by high inventory and spot discounts, but there is support from geopolitical risk premium and post - Lantern - Festival resumption of work [25] - **Reference View**: It is resistant to decline when the sector sentiment is weak. Aggressive investors can participate at low prices when the sentiment is right, while conservative investors can wait and see [25] Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai spot aluminum price is 25,082 yuan/ton, up 706, with a discount of 140 [25] - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased the instability of overseas aluminum supply, boosting the aluminum price. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the supply is rigid. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season and high prices. The inventory has increased [26] - **Reference View**: Operation requires caution, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [26] Alumina - **Spot Information**: The national average price of alumina is 2,675 yuan/ton, up 4, with a discount of 125 [27] - **Market Analysis**: The supply of bauxite has increased, and the domestic alumina production capacity is being restored. The supply is expected to be in excess, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has continued to increase [27] - **Reference View**: In the short term, the long - and short - term forces are temporarily balanced due to overseas and domestic supply - side disturbances, but the supply - excess expectation remains unchanged [28] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The average spot price of aluminum alloy is 24,30

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the oil and fat market may fluctuate weakly and gradually return to the fundamentals. Palm oil may have further downside due to its weak fundamentals, while soybean oil is relatively resistant to decline, and rapeseed oil may face supply pressure in the long term [3][5][55] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In February, the overall oil and fat market showed a fluctuating decline. After a wave of macro - sentiment and capital resonance - driven rise in January, at the end of January, due to factors such as the market's expectation of tightened monetary policy, the subsiding of geopolitical risk premiums, and increased risk - aversion sentiment before the Spring Festival, the commodity market had an obvious correction, and the oil and fat market also declined. During this period, the spreads of Y - 9 05 and OI - P 05 continued to widen [4][11] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - As March enters the palm oil production - increasing season, there may be a concentrated arrival of palm oil in China in March. The weak fundamentals may lead to further decline in palm oil prices. The current supply contradictions of the 05 contract mainly lie in soybean customs clearance policies, the shipping situation of US and Brazilian soybeans, and soybean oil reserve sales. Rapeseed oil is maintaining a small - scale inventory reduction, which supports its price, but the continuous purchase of Canadian rapeseed will increase the long - term supply pressure [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Consider short - selling palm oil at high prices with a light position, or wait to go long at the lower end of the range. Overall, palm oil will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Soybean oil is relatively resistant to decline, with limited upside and downside. - Arbitrage: Appropriately widen the YP05 spread at low prices. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [6] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In February, the overall oil and fat market showed a fluctuating decline, with palm oil falling about 4.24%, soybean oil about 0.65%, and rapeseed oil about 1.45%. Various factors such as policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and inventory reports affected the market trends. After the holiday, the domestic market had a catch - up rise, but the weak fundamentals still suppressed the upward movement [11] 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil - In January, Malaysian palm oil inventory decreased slightly more than expected to 2820000 tons, with a 14% reduction in production to 1580000 tons and an 11% increase in exports to 1320000 tons. In February, production is expected to continue to decline to about 1.33 million tons, and exports are general. The inventory may decrease to around 2.7 million tons but remain at a relatively high level. The CPO spot price is oscillating weakly, and the export reference price for March has been raised. In general, Malaysian palm oil may continue to reduce production and inventory in February, but the high - base inventory will remain at a relatively high level for some time [15][16][17] 3.2.3 Indonesian Palm Oil - In 2025, Indonesian palm oil production was about 57 million tons, with an 8% year - on - year increase. Exports were 32 million tons, with a 9% increase, and domestic consumption was 24.8 million tons, with a 4% increase. The ending inventory was 2.66 million tons, slightly higher than that at the end of 2024. The current fruit bunch price is stable, and the CPO tender price is oscillating. In January, exports decreased by 14% to 2.28 million tons. Indonesia may implement the B45 biodiesel blending policy, and the export levy will be raised from 10% to 12.5% in March, which may lead to poor export performance in March [22][23][24] 3.2.4 Indian Market - In January, India imported 1.31 million tons of edible oil, with 770000 tons of palm oil, 280000 tons of soybean oil, and 270000 tons of sunflower oil. The port inventory decreased slightly to 860000 tons, with palm oil inventory increasing to 490000 tons and soybean and sunflower oil inventories decreasing. There is no import profit for the three major edible oils. There are rumors of soybean oil wash - sales. It is expected that India will import about 400000 - 500000 tons of palm oil in February, and the total edible oil import may slightly decline to about 1.06 million tons [28][30] 3.2.5 Chinese Market - As of February 20, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China was 706400 tons, with a flat week - on - week change. The import profit is inverted, and there may be a concentrated arrival in March. Palm oil can be short - sold at high prices or long - bought at the lower end of the range. The soybean import from January to March is expected to be 17.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 700000 tons. The soybean oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure may be postponed. The rapeseed inventory in domestic crushers is at a relatively low level. The import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to increase, and the rapeseed oil inventory is in a marginal reduction state [34][36][37] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Malaysian palm oil may reduce production and inventory in February, but the high - base inventory will remain at a relatively high level. In March, with the increase in production and the concentrated arrival of imported palm oil in China, the weak fundamentals may lead to a decline in palm oil prices. Soybean oil is relatively resistant to decline, and rapeseed oil has short - term price support but long - term supply pressure. The strategy is similar to the previous part, including short - selling palm oil at high prices, widening the YP05 spread, and staying on the sidelines for options [55]

Core Insights - Australia's core inflation rate for January exceeded expectations, indicating a potential need for further tightening of monetary policy, which has led to an appreciation of the Australian dollar [1][2] Inflation Data - The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the trimmed mean consumer price index rose by 3.4% year-on-year in January, surpassing economists' forecast of 3.3% [1][2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia's target is to maintain inflation within the midpoint of the 2% to 3% target range [1][2] - Compared to the previous month, this core inflation indicator increased by 0.3%, up from a 0.2% increase in December [1][2] Market Reactions - Following the data release, the Australian dollar rose by 0.2%, and the yield on the 3-year government bonds, which are sensitive to policy changes, also increased as traders bet on another rate hike by the central bank [1][2] - The stock market's gains narrowed following the announcement [1][2]

Core Insights - The U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act may lead to moderate export growth for emerging markets in Asia [1] - President Trump announced a new global tariff rate of 15%, which results in a tariff reduction for Southeast Asian economies like India, Indonesia, and Malaysia, while Singapore faces an increase from a previous 10% rate [1] - Economists predict that the higher tariffs on Singapore will support Barclays' assessment that the country's monetary policy tightening in July will occur "later than expected" [1]

Stock Performance - AngloGold's stock price has shown significant volatility, influenced by extreme fluctuations in international gold prices, institutional rating adjustments, and changes in market sentiment [1] - From January 30 to February 13, the stock experienced a price drop to $91.39, followed by a rebound to $109.93, resulting in a price swing of 24.54% [1] Institutional Views - On February 11, Canaccord Genuity maintained a "Buy" rating for AngloGold and raised the target price to $107 [2] - CIBC and other institutions predict that gold prices could reach $6,000 by 2026, supported by geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, which has positively influenced the stock price [2] Market Dynamics - On February 12, the stock price fell by 6.72%, but rebounded by 4.97% on February 13, with a trading volume of $120 million, indicating intense bullish and bearish trading activity [3] - Over the past 20 trading days, the stock has gained 11.55%, and year-to-date, it has increased by 28.90%, with short-term volatility significantly exceeding the broader market index [3] Industry Policy Context - Concerns over tightening monetary policy due to events like the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair have led to a temporary strengthening of the dollar, which has pressured gold prices [4] - However, the long-term trend of global central banks increasing gold reserves and ongoing geopolitical risks provide structural support for gold prices [4] - The volatility in AngloGold's stock price is attributed to a combination of gold price fluctuations, institutional actions, capital flows, and macroeconomic policies [4]

Market Reaction - The recent nomination of a new Fed chair has led to extreme market reactions, particularly a sharp drop in gold and silver prices, indicating a signal of tight monetary policy [1]. Investment Strategies - Denislav Iliev, an experienced day trader with over 15 years in the field, leads a team of 40 analysts focused on identifying mispriced investments in fixed-income and closed-end funds using straightforward financial logic [1]. - The investing group "Trade With Beta" offers features such as frequent picks for mispriced preferred stocks and baby bonds, weekly reviews of over 1200 equities, IPO previews, hedging strategies, and an actively managed portfolio [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Singapore's government has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026, but this is unlikely to lead to an immediate tightening of monetary policy by the central bank [1] - Barclays' FICC research department, represented by Brian Tan, indicates that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) likely considered the more optimistic growth outlook when it maintained the nominal effective exchange rate policy last month [1] - Tan notes that the risks surrounding the GDP growth forecast, particularly the uncertainties brought by the artificial intelligence boom, may inhibit MAS from tightening monetary policy immediately [1] Group 2 - Barclays' fundamental judgment remains that MAS is expected to initiate tightening measures in July [1]