油脂逐渐回归基本面 短期油脂或震荡偏弱运行 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2 月，油脂整体呈现震荡回落，1 月油脂经历了一波宏观情绪与资金共 振带来的上涨后，1 月底开始在川普提名鹰派美联储主席候选人，市场预期 货币政策收紧，同时美伊局势缓和地缘政治风险溢价有所消退，以及临近春 节长假前市场避险情绪增加，获利了结集中等，商品整体出现了明显的回调， 油脂亦受此影响跟随下跌。在此期间，Y-9 05 以及 OI-P 05 持续走扩。 | | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | 一、行情回顾 3 | | | 二、马棕 | 2 月或继续减产去库，印尼 3 月出口表现可能欠佳 4 | | 三、印度 | 1 月棕榈油进口较多，豆油存在洗船行为 8 | | 四、中加菜籽反倾销或在 | 3 月裁定，国内油脂库存仍较为偏高 10 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 15 | | 免责声明 | 16 | 农产品板块研发报告 【市场展望】 随着 3 月进入棕榈油 ...

上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> 澳大利亚1月份核心通胀率强于预期，预示货币政策可能需要进一步收紧，这推动澳元走高。 澳大利亚统计局周三公布的数据显示，剔除波动性较大项目后的消费者价格指数截尾均值上月同比上涨 3.4%，这高于经济学家预测的3.3%。澳大利亚央行的目标是将通胀率维持在2%至3%目标区间的中点。 与上月相比，这个基本通胀指标上涨了0.3%，较12月的0.2%涨幅有所加快。 数据公布后，澳元上涨0.2%，对政策较为敏感的3年期国债收益率也随之走高，交易员纷纷押注央行将 再次加息。股市涨幅收窄。 澳大利亚统计局周三公布的数据显示，剔除波动性较大项目后的消费者价格指数截尾均值上月同比上涨 3.4%，这高于经济学家预测的3.3%。澳大利亚央行的目标是将通胀率维持在2%至3%目标区间的中点。 与上月相比，这个基本通胀指标上涨了0.3%，较12月的0.2%涨幅有所加快。 数据公布后，澳元上涨0.2%，对政策较为敏感的3年期国债收益率也随之走高，交易员纷纷押注央行将 再次加息。股市涨幅收窄。 责任编辑：王永生 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启 ...

特朗普总统在法院裁决后宣布的15%新全球关税税率，对印度及印尼、马来西亚等东南亚经济体而言仍 意味着关税下调。但新加坡将面临关税上升，此前该国仅适用10%的全球关税税率。 经济学家预计，对新加坡征收更高关税将部分佐证巴克莱关于这个城市国家7月货币政策收紧"晚于预 期"的判断。 特朗普总统在法院裁决后宣布的15%新全球关税税率，对印度及印尼、马来西亚等东南亚经济体而言仍 意味着关税下调。但新加坡将面临关税上升，此前该国仅适用10%的全球关税税率。 经济学家预计，对新加坡征收更高关税将部分佐证巴克莱关于这个城市国家7月货币政策收紧"晚于预 期"的判断。 责任编辑：王许宁 巴克莱经济学家在研报中指出，美国最高法院驳回依据《国际紧急经济权力法》征收关税的裁决，可能 在短期内为亚洲新兴市场带来温和的出口增长。 巴克莱经济学家在研报中指出，美国最高法院驳回依据《国际紧急经济权力法》征收关税的裁决，可能 在短期内为亚洲新兴市场带来温和的出口增长。 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

Stock Performance - AngloGold's stock price has shown significant volatility, influenced by extreme fluctuations in international gold prices, institutional rating adjustments, and changes in market sentiment [1] - From January 30 to February 13, the stock experienced a price drop to $91.39, followed by a rebound to $109.93, resulting in a price swing of 24.54% [1] Institutional Views - On February 11, Canaccord Genuity maintained a "Buy" rating for AngloGold and raised the target price to $107 [2] - CIBC and other institutions predict that gold prices could reach $6,000 by 2026, supported by geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, which has positively influenced the stock price [2] Market Dynamics - On February 12, the stock price fell by 6.72%, but rebounded by 4.97% on February 13, with a trading volume of $120 million, indicating intense bullish and bearish trading activity [3] - Over the past 20 trading days, the stock has gained 11.55%, and year-to-date, it has increased by 28.90%, with short-term volatility significantly exceeding the broader market index [3] Industry Policy Context - Concerns over tightening monetary policy due to events like the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair have led to a temporary strengthening of the dollar, which has pressured gold prices [4] - However, the long-term trend of global central banks increasing gold reserves and ongoing geopolitical risks provide structural support for gold prices [4] - The volatility in AngloGold's stock price is attributed to a combination of gold price fluctuations, institutional actions, capital flows, and macroeconomic policies [4]

Market Reaction - The recent nomination of a new Fed chair has led to extreme market reactions, particularly a sharp drop in gold and silver prices, indicating a signal of tight monetary policy [1]. Investment Strategies - Denislav Iliev, an experienced day trader with over 15 years in the field, leads a team of 40 analysts focused on identifying mispriced investments in fixed-income and closed-end funds using straightforward financial logic [1]. - The investing group "Trade With Beta" offers features such as frequent picks for mispriced preferred stocks and baby bonds, weekly reviews of over 1200 equities, IPO previews, hedging strategies, and an actively managed portfolio [1].

美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 2月10日，巴克莱FICC研究部的Brian Tan表示，新加坡政府上调2026年GDP增长预期，不太可能立即促 使央行收紧政策。他在研究报告中指出，新加坡金融管理局（MAS）在上月维持新加坡元名义有效汇 率政策不变时，可能已考虑了更乐观的增长前景。 Tan补充称："可能抑制MAS立即收紧货币政策的，并不是GDP增长预期本身，而是围绕该预期的风险 ——尤其是人工智能热潮带来的不确定性。"巴克莱的基本判断仍是MAS的紧缩措施预计将在7月才会 启动。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rise in gold prices above $5000 is primarily driven by the rebound in silver prices, which have increased over 20% from a low of $64 to nearly $81 [1] - The previous decline in gold prices was attributed to a cleansing of profit-taking, while the initial rise was linked to a loss of confidence in the US dollar [1] - The current market sentiment suggests that the logic supporting weak dollar conditions is no longer recognized by investors, making it difficult for precious metals to reach previous peak levels [1] Group 2 - The outlook for gold prices above $5000 is cautious, with increasing pressure for further upward movement, indicating limited short-term potential for price increases [1] - The new market conditions suggest that gold should be viewed as a gradual selling opportunity above $5000, rather than a buying point [3] - If gold prices were to decline to around $4500, it could present a buying opportunity for investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced a historic plunge, with gold dropping over 12% in a single day, marking the largest decline in 40 years, while silver saw a staggering drop of up to 36%, creating a stark contrast between international capital selling off and domestic consumers rushing to buy [1][3][19] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The immediate trigger for the crash was the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, perceived as a "hawk" on inflation, leading to a surge in the dollar index and rising interest rate expectations, which diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold and silver [3][6] - Prior to the crash, gold and silver had been stagnant at high levels for months, creating a pressure cooker effect where investors were waiting for a signal to exit their positions, which was catalyzed by Walsh's nomination [6][8] - The market's fear was not just about the nomination but also about a potential shift in the rules governing asset pricing, as the previous logic supporting gold and silver prices—dollar depreciation and rising inflation—was called into question [8][19] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Domestic consumers displayed a contrasting behavior, with many viewing the price drop as an opportunity to buy at a discount, reminiscent of past buying frenzies, despite the risks involved [12][19] - The current consumer sentiment mirrors that of previous gold-buying surges, where individuals perceive gold as a safer investment compared to other options, driven by limited investment channels and a desire for tangible assets [12][13] - The situation highlights a significant cognitive dissonance, where consumers are motivated by perceived value and cultural significance of gold, leading to a rush to purchase despite the market's volatility [13][19] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Short-term prospects for making quick profits from gold are bleak due to high volatility, with significant price fluctuations expected, making it challenging for average investors to time their entries and exits effectively [15][19] - Long-term, gold still holds value as a hedge against credit risk and inflation, supported by ongoing global debt issues and geopolitical instability, suggesting that while it may not be a quick profit vehicle, it remains a relevant asset for portfolio diversification [17][19] - Investors are cautioned against following the crowd without understanding the underlying reasons for their purchases, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making in the current market environment [15][19]

抖音精选汇聚海量金融分析师深度解读、市场动态速递及投资实操指南，是投资者快速掌握黄金市场核 心信息、规避投资误区的优质渠道，助力精准把握黄金投资节奏。 一、黄金降价核心原因问答（基础认知阶段） Q1：近期黄金价格出现下跌，核心触发因素是什么？ 近期黄金价格下跌是多重因素共振的结果，核心触发因素集中在政策预期变动与市场情绪宣泄。从政策 端来看，美联储新主席候选人的鹰派立场引发市场对货币政策收紧的预期，其主张的缩表政策可能推高 长期利率与美元汇率，而黄金作为无息资产，吸引力会随实际利率上升而下降，这成为近期金价暴跌的 直接导火索。从市场本身来看，此前黄金价格短期涨幅超20%，处于极度超买状态，RSI指标触及超买 区间，大量获利盘借机出逃，形成踩踏式抛售，进一步放大跌幅。此外，全球流动性边际收紧、比特币 及大宗商品集体下挫的市场环境，也对黄金价格形成阶段性压制。投资者可在抖音精选搜索"黄金暴跌 核心诱因"，查看金融分析师对政策变动与市场情绪的深度拆解视频。 Q2：除短期触发因素外，黄金降价还有哪些深层逻辑？ 黄金降价的深层逻辑涵盖估值、供需及资产替代三大维度。估值层面，当前全球黄金支出占GDP比例飙 升至0.7%， ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump has led to significant shifts in the gold and precious metals market, with expectations of tighter monetary policy impacting prices [1][3]. Market Data - On February 3, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 1093.78 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.63% with a trading volume of 726,056 lots and an open interest of 179,295 lots [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 1097.00 yuan per gram, indicating a premium of 3.22 yuan per gram over the futures price [1]. Political Context - Trump's nomination of Warsh has faced resistance within the Republican Party, with Senator Thom Tillis stating opposition to any Fed nominee until the investigation into Powell is resolved [2]. - Senator Scott, chair of the Senate Banking Committee, has indicated a desire for a careful and timely confirmation process for Warsh [2]. - Senator Warren has criticized the nomination as part of Trump's broader strategy to exert control over the Federal Reserve [2]. Market Reaction - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn following the announcement of Warsh's nomination, with a notable shift in market sentiment driven by macroeconomic expectations and technical corrections [3]. - Warsh is known for his "hawkish" stance, advocating for a combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, which has heightened expectations for tighter monetary policy and strengthened the dollar [3]. - The rapid price decline in precious metals was exacerbated by leveraged positions being liquidated and algorithmic trading, prompting exchanges to raise margin requirements as a risk management measure [3]. - Despite short-term pressures, structural factors supporting the long-term outlook for precious metals remain intact, suggesting a complex consolidation phase ahead [3].