为-3.71%/+15.13%/+13.31%，对应当前PE 倍数分别为9x/8x/7x。公司收入保持较高增速，中长期利润率 存在提升空间，公司市值对标顺丰控股H 仍有上涨空间，维持"增持"评级。 机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：闫海/王易/范晨轩 多业务融合带动公司收入增长，预计25Q4 收入保持较高增速。25 年公司战略重心转移至收入增速及投 入，公司以一体化供应链业务为核心积极投入拓展即时配送业务，并扩张快递及海外供应链业务，我们 认为25Q4 公司收入端有望保持较高增速。 25 年公司管理层变革，同时加大投入不断挖掘高端电商件及高价值业务场景，看好公司26年利润改 善。公司管理层调整已全面到位，且针对高端时效件（如商务急件、生鲜冷链、医药特运）及高价值业 务（如高端电商件、供应链一体化解决方案）的核心需求，公司加大资源倾斜力度，深挖场景化服务潜 力，有效驱动收入规模稳步增长。依托管理端的提质增效与业务端的结构优化，公司在行业竞争中的核 心优势持续凸显，我们看好26 年公司利润改善。 下调盈利预测，维持"增持"评级。公司25 年业务重心在收入增速以及投入，我们认为快递员、车辆、 飞机、销售资源等方面的投入可 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 ——预计 Q4 收入高增，看好 26 年利润改善 2026 年 01 月 08 日 京东物流 (02618) 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 11.55 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9138.75 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 15.64/10.08 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 768.86 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 6,656.78 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9013 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -16% 4% 24% 44% HSCEI 京东物流 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 - 证券分析师 研究支持 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 、 投资要点： 财务数据及 ...

Core Viewpoint - JD.com has taken a significant step in integrating its business after privatizing Dada Group by acquiring its local on-demand delivery business for $270 million, marking the completion of the privatization process [3][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - JD Logistics announced the acquisition of Dada Group's local on-demand delivery business through a business transfer agreement, acquiring 100% of two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Dajiang and Dasheng [3]. - The acquisition is part of JD's broader strategy to enhance its local life services, with Dajiang registered in China with a capital of $700 million and Dasheng newly established in Hong Kong [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Dada Group's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 9.66 billion yuan, down 8% from 10.5 billion yuan in 2023, with a net loss of 2.038 billion yuan, slightly widening from a loss of 1.957 billion yuan the previous year [4]. - Despite ongoing losses, Dada's established on-demand delivery network and operational experience provide a crucial foundation for JD's entry into the local life services market [4]. Group 3: Business Integration and Structure - Following the acquisition, JD's local life services division has been restructured into the "Local Life Services Group," which includes various departments such as instant delivery and home services, enhancing its service offerings [5]. - The division will continue to be led by the former head of Dada, Guo Qing, who has experience in optimizing delivery networks, which is expected to improve operational efficiency [5]. Group 4: Market Impact and Growth - JD's foray into the food delivery sector has shown promising results, with over 25 million daily orders during the June 618 shopping festival and more than 150,000 restaurants joining the platform [5]. - The integration of the delivery business is anticipated to create synergies that enhance JD's competitiveness in the instant retail sector, potentially lowering fulfillment costs and improving delivery efficiency [6]. Group 5: Stock Performance - As of the latest report, JD Logistics' stock price is 13.01 HKD, reflecting a 3.67% increase, with a market capitalization of 86.582 billion HKD [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International raises the target price for SF Express (09699) to HKD 15.4, maintaining a "Buy" rating, indicating that the company is expected to benefit from a rationalization of delivery subsidies and has significant business growth potential in the future [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - CMB International has adjusted the revenue forecasts for SF Express for 2025-2027, projecting a growth of 14%/12%/12%, leading to revenues of RMB 22-30.4 billion, with annual increases of 40%/20%/15% [1] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 26%/23%/27%, resulting in projected profits of RMB 340-760 million, with Non-IFRS net profit margins of 1.5%/2%/2.6% [1] Group 2: Business Dynamics - The company is seen as a beneficiary of the ongoing delivery subsidy competition, with expectations that the rationalization of subsidies will enhance its business environment [1] - The collaboration with SF Express is expected to deepen, and the scaling of autonomous vehicle delivery is anticipated to continuously reduce costs [1] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The company is experiencing a significant improvement in operational efficiency due to increased order density and effective management of quality riders, supported by AI technology [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the target price for SF Express (09699) has been raised to HKD 15.4, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to its position as a beneficiary in the delivery subsidy war [1] - The report highlights that as subsidies return to rationality, there remains significant business potential for SF Express, supported by deepening business synergies with SF Holdings and the ongoing cost reduction from the scaling of autonomous vehicle deliveries [1] - Based on a significantly better-than-expected revenue growth in the first half of the year, the demand for instant delivery services is expected to accelerate in the third quarter [1] Group 2 - Revenue forecasts for SF Express have been adjusted for 2025-2027, with expected growth rates of 14%/12%/12%, leading to revenues of RMB 22-30.4 billion, representing annual increases of 40%/20%/15% [1] - Profit forecasts for the same period have been raised by 26%/23%/27%, resulting in projected profits of RMB 340 million to 760 million, with Non-IFRS net profit margins of 1.5%/2%/2.6% [1] - The improvements in operational efficiency are attributed to increased order density, effective management of quality riders, and continuous optimization of operating costs aided by AI [1]