投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 2026 年 3 月 25 日 橡胶甲醇原油 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 地缘风险降温 能化展开调整 核心观点 橡胶：本周三国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏强， 小幅收涨的走势。收盘时期价收涨 1.42%至 16430 元/吨。5-9 月差贴 水幅度扩大至 45 元/吨。随着新一轮割胶期临近，沪胶供应预期增强， 预计后市沪胶期货或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周三国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏弱， 大幅收低的走势 ...

姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 3 月 24 日 橡胶甲醇原油 地缘风险降温 能化震荡偏弱 核心观点 橡胶：本周二国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡企稳， 略微收涨的走势。收盘时期价收涨 0.37%至 16225 元/吨。5-9 月差贴 水幅度扩大至 10 元/吨。随着新一轮割胶期临近，沪胶供应预期增强， 预计后市沪胶期货或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周二国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏弱， 大幅收低的走势 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 3 月 23 日 橡胶甲醇原油 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势。收盘时期价收涨 0.84%至 16145 元/吨。5-9 月差升 水幅度收敛至 30 元/吨。随着新一轮割胶期临近，沪胶供应预期增强， 预计后市沪胶期货或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减仓，强势上行， 大幅收涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 3363 元/吨一线 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 从业资格证号：F0251793 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 3 月 20 日 橡胶甲醇原油 利多情绪减弱 能化震荡偏弱 核心观点 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现震荡偏弱的走势。随 着新一轮割胶期临近，沪胶供应预期增强，预计后市沪胶期货或维持 震荡偏弱的走势。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周五国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现震荡偏弱的走势。随 着短期地缘情绪有所减弱，甲醇展开调整，预计后市甲醇期货或维持 高位震荡的走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 原油：本周五国内原油期货 2605 合约呈现震荡偏 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 3 月 19 日 橡胶甲醇原油 强弱持续分化 能化涨跌互现 核心观点 橡胶：本周四国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏弱， 大幅收低的走势。收盘时期价收低 2.51%至 16090 元/吨。5-9 月差升 水幅度收敛至 60 元/吨。随着新一轮割胶期临近，沪胶供应预期增强， 预计后市沪胶期货或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周四国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，强势上行， 大幅收涨的走势 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 3 月 18 日 橡胶甲醇原油 强弱继续分化 能化涨跌互现 核心观点 橡胶：本周三国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放量减仓，震荡偏弱， 大幅收低的走势。收盘时期价收低 2.55%至 16400 元/吨。5-9 月差升 水幅度升阔至 100 元/吨。随着新一轮割胶期临近，沪胶供应预期增强， 预计后市沪胶期货或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周三国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，企稳反弹， 大幅收涨的走 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The closing price dropped by 2.50% to 16,765 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 95 yuan/ton. As the new rubber - tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks the impetus to continue rising, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Friday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, stabilizing and rebounding, and a slight increase. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,887 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,723 yuan/ton. The closing price rose slightly by 1.15% to 2,805 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 133 yuan/ton. Affected by short - term geopolitical risks, methanol has continued to rise, but it lacks fundamental support. It is expected that the methanol futures may have limited upward momentum in the future [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, strong upward movement, and a significant increase. The futures price rose to a maximum of 778.9 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 724.6 yuan/barrel. The closing price rose significantly by 5.46% to 753.6 yuan/barrel. As Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical risks have increased again, and the crude oil premium has rebounded. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price may maintain a high - level volatile trend in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons or 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, an increase of 1.27%, and the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse for natural rubber samples in Qingdao decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points [9]. - As of March 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points. The production scheduling of domestic tire enterprises has basically returned to the normal level, which supports the capacity utilization rate of the overall sample enterprises. The expected price increase has led to active domestic sales of all - steel tire enterprises, and the inventory clearance rhythm has accelerated. The domestic and foreign sales of semi - steel tire enterprises are relatively stable, and the overall sales performance is average. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the next period. Due to the uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, there are still export resistances in some regions of tire enterprises, and enterprises will flexibly adjust the production scheduling ratio of domestic and foreign sales according to their own order situations, with the possibility of a slight decline [10]. - In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively. From January to February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8% respectively. Although automobile sales in the first two months declined due to multiple factors, exports maintained high growth, with a year - on - year increase of 52.4% in February [10]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [11]. Methanol - As of the week of March 13, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 85.61%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.22%, a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.69%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.94%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0139 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 33,600 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 42,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 145,300 tons compared with 1.8686 million tons last year [12]. - As of the week of March 13, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 33.67%, a week - on - week slight increase of 3.25%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.96%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 88.69%, a week - on - week slight increase of 2.46%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 57.31%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.48%. As of the week of March 13, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78.44%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.73 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.77%. As of March 13, 2026, the futures disk profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 19 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant increase of 54 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of March 13, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 880,600 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 113,700 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 62,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 112,100 tons. As of the week of March 12, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 523,100 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 29,300 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 182,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 140,400 tons compared with 382,700 tons last year [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of March 6, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 411, a week - on - week slight increase of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 93. As of the week of March 6, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.678 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 18,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year slight increase of 103,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [13]. - As of the week of March 6, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 443 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.824 million barrels and a year - on - year slight increase of 778,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 26.58 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 117,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 415.442 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 100,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 90.8%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.6 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 1.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 4.3 percentage points [14]. - As of March 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 172,150 contracts, a week - on - week slight decrease of 562 contracts and a significant increase of 33,041 contracts or 23.75% compared with the average in February. As of March 3, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 246,514 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 54,198 contracts and a significant increase of 85,120 contracts or 52.74% compared with the average in February [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 17,350 yuan/ton | +350 yuan/ton | 16,765 yuan/ton | - 310 yuan/ton | +585 yuan/ton | +310 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,850 yuan/ton | +140 yuan/ton | 2,805 yuan/ton | +79 yuan/ton | +45 yuan/ton | - 79 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 642.8 yuan/barrel | +0.4 yuan/barrel | 753.6 yuan/barrel | +31.3 yuan/barrel | - 110.8 yuan/barrel | - 30.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: There are charts including rubber basis, rubber 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][23][20]. - **Methanol**: There are charts including methanol basis, methanol 5 - 9 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][35][31]. - **Crude Oil**: There are charts including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][47][43].