| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘风险降温，原油震荡偏弱 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-27 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。由于短期美军航母达到中东战场，伊朗发表强硬言论，美伊可能爆发新一轮军事冲 突，或威胁 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The crude oil market is expected to operate in a moderately strong manner. In the short - term (within a week), it will be volatile; in the medium - term (two weeks to a month), it will also show a volatile trend, and it will be moderately strong on the day [1][5] Summary of Related Content - **Price Movement and Judgment Criteria** - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for those without night trading, it's yesterday's closing price, and the end price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is moderately weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is moderately strong, and a rise greater than 1% is strong [3] - The moderately strong/moderately weak judgment only applies to the intraday view, not to short - term and medium - term views [4] - **Driving Logic of Crude Oil Price** - Recently, US President Trump has frequently sent out geopolitical risk signals, with Greenland and Canada potentially being the next targets for the US to seize and attack. The arrival of a US aircraft carrier in the Middle East and Iran's strong statements may lead to a new round of military conflicts between the US and Iran, threatening Middle East crude oil exports. Geopolitical risks have overshadowed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of the oil market, boosting the sharp rise of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on the night of last Friday. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend on Monday [5]

宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供应过剩主导，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。由于短期美军航母绕过马六甲海峡，赶赴中东战场，伊朗发表强硬言论，中东地缘 风险再度增强。由于市场担忧全球原油 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险仍在，原油震荡偏强 | 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛墨西哥或成为美国下一个夺取和 打击的目标。同时美国威胁或对伊朗展开新一轮军事打击，中东地缘风险再度加剧。随着美国总统 特朗普释放可能暂缓打击伊朗的信号， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-15 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 弱势运行 | 地缘风险弱化，原油震荡走弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：弱势运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛墨西哥或成为美国下一个夺取和 打击的目标。同时美国威胁或对伊朗展开新一轮军事打击，中东地缘风险再度加剧。随着昨日美国 总统特朗普释放可能暂缓打击伊朗的信 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The crude oil 2603 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and show a stronger trend intraday, with an overall view of stronger operation. The core reason is the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, which has led to an increase in geopolitical risks and supported the crude oil price [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Information Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2603 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2603 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2603 contract is expected to be stronger [1]. Price Movement Reference - The reference view is that the crude oil price will run stronger [1][5]. Core Logic - The US President Trump has frequently released geopolitical risk signals, and the US may target Greenland and Mexico. Also, the US has threatened a new round of military strikes against Iran, intensifying the Middle East geopolitical risks. The strengthening of the crude oil risk premium has weakened the dominance of the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market, supporting the stronger operation of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and stronger trend on Wednesday [5]. Calculation Notes - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakish, an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongish, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The strongish/weakish description only applies to intraday views, not short - and medium - term views [3][4].