Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for leading companies in the liquor sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, while suggesting a hold for Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [10][9]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant clearing phase due to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" policy, with second and third-tier companies facing substantial challenges, while leading firms show resilience [1][9]. - The report anticipates that the financial statements of leading liquor companies will signal an industry turning point, potentially reshaping market expectations and indicating a gradual emergence of the industry bottom [9][1]. - The demand for liquor is expected to continue recovering, driven by a positive price index in 2026, which may lead to inflation and increased corporate profitability [1][9]. Revenue and Net Profit - In Q2 2025, the liquor industry reported revenues of 881 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, and a net profit of 312 billion yuan, down 7.5% [2][13]. - For the first half of 2025, the industry generated revenues of 2,415 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.9% in revenue and 1.2% in net profit [2][13]. - Excluding Moutai, the industry's revenue in Q2 2025 was 484 billion yuan, reflecting a more significant decline of 13.1% [2][13]. Profitability - The overall gross margin of the liquor sector is under pressure due to declining prices and structural changes, with high-end liquor experiencing a slight decrease in gross margin [4][28]. - Many companies have increased their expense ratios to cope with price declines and intensified competition, although some have managed to reduce costs through digitalization and refined channel management [4][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong leading companies and those that have cleared their market burdens first, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, while also monitoring companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu for potential growth contributions in the second half of 2025 [9][10]. - The anticipated recovery in liquor demand and the potential for improved profitability in 2026 present a favorable investment landscape for the sector [9][1].

同时，口子窖在2025年上半年末的经销商数量为1082个，其中省内536个，省外546个。从经销商数量也可以看出口子窖对省外市场的 重视。但拉长时间线来看，口子窖对省内市场的依赖性逐渐升高，省外市场扩张似乎并不顺利。2022年-2024年，口子窖省内收入占比 分别为82.43%、83.81%、84.35%；省外收入占比分别为17.57%、16.19%、15.65%。 口子窖面临的省内市场也并不轻松。其他徽酒上市公司尚未公布2025年半年报，以2024年的业绩作比对，古井贡酒包括安徽省、江苏 省、湖北省等在内的华中地区收入201.51亿元，同比增长17.8%，占总收入的85.46%。迎驾贡酒2024年安徽省内市场收入50.93亿元，同 比增长12.75%，占酒类营收的72.74%。口子窖2024年省内收入49.56亿元，同比增长1.1%，占酒类收入的84.35%。金徽酒2024年省内收 入22.31亿元，同比增长16.14%，占酒制造业务收入的76.9%。 8月19日，口子窖发布2025年半年度报告，其收入25.31亿元，同比减少20.07%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润7.15亿元，同比减少 24.63%；经营 ...