招商证券发布研报称，7-8月大众品整体需求相对平淡，调味品等板块受餐饮需求弱复苏拖累。进入9月 看需求随餐饮环比复苏有所改善，双节期间消费、出行相对平稳，餐饮景气度有所提升。白酒双节动销 符合预期，高端酒与宴席场景表现较好于此前预期。零食、饮料仍保持较高景气度，调味品、速冻等板 块实际动销有所改善，啤酒表现平淡，乳制品动销仍承压。继续推荐高景气赛道，同时考虑到餐饮旺季 逐步到来，以及外卖大战、禁酒令等影响逐步消化，建议关注餐饮链板块及公司的业绩逐步改善节奏。 具体跟踪如下 白酒：双节动销符合预期，高端酒与宴席场景表现较好于此前预期。25年中秋国庆节后反馈白酒总体销 售同比下滑约20%，与节前预期基本一致。展望后续，Q4继续关注供给侧收缩信号及需求边际修复速 率。 调味品：9月动销改善，餐饮有所复苏。7-8月受整体需求平淡叠加餐饮弱复苏影响，调味品板块表现较 弱。9月餐饮逐步复苏，实际动销环比改善，进入双节备货阶段库存同比略有提升。中秋国庆期间整体 动销同比去年有所提升，其中餐饮需求复苏对板块有所拉动。 乳制品：液奶需求平淡，双节动销承压。7-8月伊利液奶下滑低个位数。9月预计伊利液奶仍下滑低个位 数。双节渠道 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 舍得酒业（600702） 证券研究报告 普通酒高增贡献增长，静待拐点来临 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 公司营业 收 入/ 归母 净利 润 分别为 27.01/4.43 亿 元（ 同比 -17.41%/-24.98%）。2025Q2 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 11.25/0.97 亿 元（同比-3.44%/+139.48%）。 沱牌结构优化成效突出，次高端需求偏弱中高档酒仍承压。25Q2 公司酒 类业务营收 9.76 亿元（同比-4.52%）。 分产品 来看， 中高 档酒/ 普通酒 营收 分别为 7.39/2.37 亿元 （同比 -15.65%/+62.25%），中高档酒下滑预计主要系 Q2"禁酒令"影响之下次高 端价位需求承压明显；普通酒增长突出主要系：①24Q2 低基数；②T68 等 升级单品延续 Q1 以来放量势能。 分渠道看，批发/电商营收分别为 8.45/1.31 亿元（同比-7.80%/+23.83%） ; 分区域看，省内/省外营收分别为 2.89/6.86 亿元（同比-21.20%/+4.84%）。 产品结构下行毛利率阶段略承压，费用率下 ...

历史的一粒尘埃落在经销商头上，就是一座山。 "今年双节，业绩普遍下跌了超过20%"，这是众多酒商给佳酿网的反馈。 淡旺分明，是白酒销售的显著特点，"平时最多维持收支平衡，我们只有靠节庆冲下利润"。2025年上半 年受"禁酒令"影响，动销几乎为零，大家都盼着双节能够冲一波销量，没想到继续表现继续不佳。 "和上半年相比，双节的动销要好很多，但比往年下降了30%。" 厦门丰德酒业总经理武永磊表示，以前 双节提前一个月动销已经开始，但今年距离双节不到十天，下游经销商依然还没开始拿货。"希望双节 期间动销能好起来。" 一直以来"淡季维持客户，旺季赚利润"是酒业传统，但连续几年"淡季很淡，旺季不旺"的糟糕表现，让 本来就焦虑的酒商目光变得更暗淡了些。 在价格带方面，除了茅台酒，500元以上的高端产品几乎是断崖式下降。因为，该价位段是商务用酒的 主力，其受宏观环境以及禁酒令的影响，动销困难。 与商务宴请形成强关联的团购业务遭受重大打击。"2025年双节，团购销量基本忽略不计。"成都大成银 通商贸公司总经理唐松林表示。 团购曾是大成银通重要销售渠道，一些大型企业发礼品、馈赠、各种宴请都要用白酒，高峰时公司团购 销量超过10万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai, once considered "liquid gold," has significantly declined due to multiple interrelated factors, leading to a historical low in wholesale prices and a shift in consumer behavior [1][5][18] Group 1: Price Decline and Market Dynamics - Since June 2024, the wholesale price of Moutai has dropped to 1770 RMB per bottle, marking a decline of over 20% from the previous price of 2220 RMB [1] - The market is experiencing a significant imbalance between supply and demand, with an estimated 120 million bottles of Moutai in circulation and new production capacity adding to the inventory [6] - The introduction of strict alcohol prohibition policies has drastically reduced the consumption of Moutai in government settings, decreasing its market share from 40% in 2012 to less than 0.8% [5] Group 2: Changing Consumer Preferences - The younger generation shows a declining interest in traditional liquor, with only 9% of Gen Z consuming Moutai, and 73% reducing their alcohol intake for health reasons [7] - The demand for Moutai as a gift has plummeted from 35% to 12%, while alternative beverages like whiskey and low-alcohol drinks are gaining popularity among younger consumers [7] Group 3: Impact of E-commerce and Financial Attributes - E-commerce platforms have disrupted traditional pricing structures, with aggressive pricing strategies leading to a significant drop in Moutai's market price [8][11] - The annualized return on Moutai has fallen below 5%, down from 18% between 2020 and 2024, causing investors to seek more stable assets [8] Group 4: Distributor Challenges and Industry Reactions - Distributors are facing unprecedented survival challenges, with some reporting losses of 500 RMB per bottle sold, leading to a crisis in the distribution network [10] - The price collapse has triggered a domino effect, causing other premium brands to lower their prices, with notable declines in brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 [10] Group 5: Strategic Responses and Future Outlook - Moutai is attempting to stabilize prices through various strategies, including increasing direct sales and targeting younger consumers with new product lines [17] - The company is also expanding its international market presence, with overseas revenue reaching 5.1 billion RMB in 2024, a 19.27% increase year-on-year [17] - The ongoing price adjustments reflect a re-evaluation of Moutai's position as a luxury item versus its fundamental value as a consumer product [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 4.484 billion yuan, a decline of 1.84% year-on-year, and net profit was 392 million yuan, down 12.70% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company experienced a slight increase in sales volume in H1 2025, reaching 1.8008 million kiloliters, up 0.95% year-on-year, while the average price per ton decreased by 1.2% to 4,908 yuan per kiloliter. The cost per ton also saw a reduction of 2.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s profitability was impacted by an increase in the income tax rate, which rose by 7.41 percentage points to 27.26% year-on-year in H1 2025. The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 9.79%, down 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 0.7%, 2.4%, and 2.7% for the years 2025 to 2027, reaching 14.7 billion, 15.1 billion, and 15.5 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 8.2%, 4.5%, and 5.0% during the same period, reaching 1.21 billion, 1.26 billion, and 1.32 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The report indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts primarily due to weak dining consumption [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is estimated at 14.814 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 1.337 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.78% [4]. - The report provides various financial ratios, including a projected P/E ratio of 21.95 for 2025 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.30 for the same year [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in mid-year performance, primarily driven by a significant drop in the second quarter, with revenue and net profit both experiencing substantial year-on-year decreases [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 6.951 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.229 billion yuan, down 9.46% [2]. - The gross profit margin was 73.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. - The second quarter saw a dramatic revenue decline of 29.69% year-on-year, with revenue at 1.852 billion yuan and net profit down over 37% to 585 million yuan [2]. Product Performance - Revenue from the company's main products, 特A+ and 特A, experienced year-on-year declines of -32% and -28%, respectively, indicating significant policy impact on high-end products [4]. - The management noted that high-end products, particularly those priced at "四开" and above, were most affected, while lower-tier products like "对开" and "单开" showed resilience and even some growth [4]. Market Dynamics - The company faced a 6.07% year-on-year revenue decline in the Jiangsu provincial market, with the largest drop in the Nanjing region at 7.94% [5]. - In the second quarter, revenue from the provincial market fell by 32%, with specific declines in various regions, including -39% in the Su Nan area [5]. - Despite the challenges, the company believes there is still significant growth potential in the Jiangsu market due to product and regional imbalances [5]. External Market Strategy - The company is focusing on core markets surrounding Jiangsu, such as Anhui, Shandong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, where it aims to enhance product competitiveness [6]. - Revenue from the provincial market outside Jiangsu reached 628 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.78%, with a net increase of 38 distributors [8]. Future Outlook - The management anticipates that a substantial recovery in the liquor industry may not occur until the second half of 2026, with potential improvements in the fourth quarter of 2025 [8]. - The company is exploring the introduction of lower-alcohol products to cater to younger consumers, although past attempts at lower alcohol content faced challenges [9].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Jiangsu Jinshiyuan (stock code: 603369.SH) in the first half of 2025 showed a significant downturn, marking the first decline in both revenue and net profit since 2021, primarily driven by a substantial drop in second-quarter performance [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 6.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit of 2.229 billion yuan, down 9.46% [3]. - In the second quarter, revenue and net profit fell sharply by 29.69% and 37.06%, respectively, attributed to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" policy and the traditional off-season [3]. - The revenue from high-end products, particularly the special A+ category, saw a decline of 7.37%, significantly affecting overall performance [1][3]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The company faced intense competition in its home market of Jiangsu, with local competitors like Yanghe and Anhui Kouzi gaining market share [1]. - The market share in core cities was pressured by both local and external brands, leading to a 6.07% decrease in revenue from the Jiangsu market [3]. - The growth rate of the company's revenue from outside Jiangsu slowed to 4.78%, a significant drop from 36.39% in the previous year [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Cash Flow - The company's contract liabilities decreased from 1.593 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 600 million yuan, a decline of 62.35%, indicating reduced willingness of distributors to stock products [4]. - Inventory turnover days increased from 451.1 days to 549.8 days, highlighting issues with inventory buildup and sluggish sales [4]. - The net operating cash flow also declined year-on-year, reflecting challenges in cash recovery due to poor sales performance [4]. Group 4: Production and Future Outlook - Despite facing numerous challenges, the company has made efforts in capacity optimization, with stable growth in raw liquor production and an increase in the quality of its products [4]. - A new 20,000-ton clear elegant sauce workshop has been completed and is set to commence full production, although the success of this expansion plan remains uncertain amid weak terminal sales and inventory pressure [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for leading companies in the liquor sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, while suggesting a hold for Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [10][9]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant clearing phase due to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" policy, with second and third-tier companies facing substantial challenges, while leading firms show resilience [1][9]. - The report anticipates that the financial statements of leading liquor companies will signal an industry turning point, potentially reshaping market expectations and indicating a gradual emergence of the industry bottom [9][1]. - The demand for liquor is expected to continue recovering, driven by a positive price index in 2026, which may lead to inflation and increased corporate profitability [1][9]. Revenue and Net Profit - In Q2 2025, the liquor industry reported revenues of 881 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, and a net profit of 312 billion yuan, down 7.5% [2][13]. - For the first half of 2025, the industry generated revenues of 2,415 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.9% in revenue and 1.2% in net profit [2][13]. - Excluding Moutai, the industry's revenue in Q2 2025 was 484 billion yuan, reflecting a more significant decline of 13.1% [2][13]. Profitability - The overall gross margin of the liquor sector is under pressure due to declining prices and structural changes, with high-end liquor experiencing a slight decrease in gross margin [4][28]. - Many companies have increased their expense ratios to cope with price declines and intensified competition, although some have managed to reduce costs through digitalization and refined channel management [4][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong leading companies and those that have cleared their market burdens first, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, while also monitoring companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu for potential growth contributions in the second half of 2025 [9][10]. - The anticipated recovery in liquor demand and the potential for improved profitability in 2026 present a favorable investment landscape for the sector [9][1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [8] Core Views - The company's performance has been significantly impacted by a structural shift in consumption, leading to a notable decline in revenue and profit margins. The Q2 2025 results showed a year-over-year decrease in revenue, net profit, and adjusted net profit by 48.48%, 70.91%, and 73.41% respectively [2] - The high-end liquor segment has seen a substantial drop in revenue share, primarily due to the implementation of alcohol bans and reduced consumption scenarios affecting mid to high-end liquor sales. The revenue for high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor in Q2 2025 was 6.57, 0.12, and 0.29 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year changes of -49.64%, -7.68%, and +7.49% [3] - The company has proactively managed channel pressures by adjusting its product offerings and inventory levels, which has led to a decrease in gross and net profit margins. The gross margin fell by 9.86 percentage points to 65.18% in Q2 2025 [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue from domestic and foreign markets was 5.15 billion yuan and 1.83 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 54.01% and 18.57% [4] - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin decreased to 65.18% and 14.51% respectively, primarily due to a shift in product structure and increased channel inventory management [5] - The company expects a gradual improvement in demand for white liquor in Anhui province as policies relax, which may positively impact future performance [6] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, expecting net profits of 1.30 billion yuan and 1.35 billion yuan respectively, with a growth rate of -21% and 4% [6] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 4.96 billion yuan, with a year-over-year decline of 17.56% [12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decrease to 2.18 yuan in 2025, with a recovery to 2.40 yuan by 2027 [12]

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beer reported a mixed performance in its mid-year results for 2025, with revenue growth in beer but a significant decline in its liquor business, reflecting broader industry challenges and strategic shifts within the company [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, China Resources Beer achieved a revenue of 23.942 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.789 billion yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year growth of 23% [2]. - The beer segment generated an unaudited revenue of 23.161 billion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year, with beer sales volume reaching approximately 6.487 million kiloliters, an increase of 2.2% [2]. Group 2: Beer Business Insights - High-end beer products continued to perform well, with sales of premium and above beer increasing by over 10% year-on-year [2]. - The "Heineken" brand saw a sales growth of over 20% despite a high base from the previous year, while "Snow Beer" sales surged by over 70% [2]. Group 3: Liquor Business Challenges - The liquor segment faced significant challenges, with unaudited revenue of 0.781 billion yuan, down 33.7% from 1.178 billion yuan in the same period last year [2][3]. - The major product "Abstract" contributed nearly 80% of the liquor business revenue, indicating a heavy reliance on this single product [2]. Group 4: Strategic Direction and Management Changes - Following the departure of former chairman Hou Xiaohai, the current management, led by CEO Zhao Chunwu, aims to continue the existing strategic direction without major changes [3]. - The company is focusing on developing mid-range and light bottle liquor products as part of a "dual-wheel drive" strategy, while also monitoring the impact of seasonal demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and Spring Festival [3][5]. Group 5: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with significant price declines observed, particularly affecting high-end products due to reduced demand in business dining and high-end Chinese dining scenarios [5]. - The wholesale reference price for "Abstract" has dropped significantly, with a current price of 372 yuan per bottle, down over 80 yuan since the beginning of the year [5].