公司报告 | 半年报点评 口子窖（603589） 证券研究报告 结构下移拖累业绩，大众消费修复或利好后续表现 【业绩】2025Q2 公司实现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 7.21/1.05/0.91 亿元（yoy:-48.48%/-70.91%/-73.41%）。 受消费环境叠加基数影响，高档酒收入占比下滑明显。 25Q2 高 档 白 酒 / 中 档 白 酒 / 低 档 白 酒 营 业 收 入 6.57/0.12/0.29 亿 元 （yoy:-49.64%/-7.68%/+7.49%），占比分别同比变动-2.90/+0.73/+2.16pct 至 94.14%/1.68%/4.18%，高档白酒占比下滑较多或主因：①禁酒令实施下， 部分消费场景减少对中高档酒销售造成影响；②"兼系列"中的中档偏低 价位带的产品动销较好，而高端"兼系列"产品动销不及预期（具体体现： 兼 5、兼 6、兼 8 产品价格稳定在公司指导价格体系，兼 10、兼 20 价 格略低于指导价格）。 受政策影响，Q2 省内下滑幅度更大。 25Q2 省内/省外营收分别为 5.15/1.83 亿元（yoy:-54.01%/-18.57%） ...

6月27日，华润啤酒发布公告称，侯孝海因有意投入更多时间于个人安排，决定辞任执行董事、董事会主席，且不再担任董事会辖下财务委员会主席，执 行委员会、购股权总务委员会成员。华润啤酒表示，侯孝海辞任后，董事会主席职位将暂时悬空，直至公司委任合适继任人。公司执行董事及总裁赵春武 暂时承担过渡期间董事会主席的工作及责任。截至今日，华润啤酒尚未正式公布新的"掌门人"。 赵春武出席了此次财报后举办的业绩发布会，他称，现任管理层对于下一步发展有着高度共识，对于此前侯孝海带领下的华润啤酒战略，以延续和发扬为 主，不会有太大改动。 新京报 记者 王子扬 中国基金报 记者 夏天 8月19日，华润啤酒发布2025年中期业绩：上半年营收239.42亿元，同比增长0.8%；股东应占溢利57.89亿元，同比增长23%。 侯孝海离职后，暂时承担董事会主席工作及责任的华润啤酒执行董事及总裁赵春武出席业绩说明会，提到侯孝海离职一事，他表示"舍不得"。 啤酒业务方面，华润啤酒上半年未经审计营业额为231.61亿元，同比增长2.6%；实现啤酒销量约648.7万千升，同比上升2.2%。高端啤酒产品持续发力， 上半年普高档及以上啤酒销量同比增长超过1 ...

【导读】2022年豪掷超百亿元收购金沙酒业以来，华润系的白酒雄心正遭遇前所未有的拷问 见习记者 夏天 金沙酒业业绩"变脸" 2022年，华润啤酒以高达123亿元的对价，将贵州金沙窖酒酒业有限公司（以下简称 金沙酒业 ）55.19%股权收入囊中，创下当时中国白 酒并购史上最大交易纪录。 在华润啤酒的蓝图里，这绝非一次简单的财务投资，而是其构建"啤酒+白酒"双轮驱动战略的核心支点，旨在切入利润更丰厚、抗周期性更 强的白酒赛道。收购完成后，华润啤酒迅速派驻高管团队，启动对金沙酒业的深度整合，从管理架构到渠道体系进行大刀阔斧的改革，试 图将啤酒领域的成功模式复制到白酒领域。 然而，理想很丰满，现实却很骨感。自被收购后，金沙酒业的业绩并未如预想般迎来大发展。 华润啤酒 公布的一组数据显示， 收购前 的 2019 年 — 2021年， 金沙酒业 营收分别为 8.78亿元、17.67亿元和36.41亿元，同期税后 利润分别为1.56亿元、6.15亿元和13.15亿元。 而 到了2023年，华润啤酒年报显示，其白酒业务 的 营业额、未计利息及税项前盈利分别为20.83亿元、1.3亿元。 由于在华润啤酒的白酒板块中，只并表了金 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as outperforming the market, with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the next six months compared to the market index [49]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 38,780 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, which is an increase of 1.0 percentage points compared to the same month last year, although it represents a decline of 1.1 percentage points from June [2][13]. - The growth rate of commodity retail continues to decline, while the growth rate of catering revenue has slightly rebounded compared to the previous month [17]. - The performance of various consumer goods categories shows that home appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as furniture, have seen significant growth, both exceeding 20% [3][21]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July 2025 increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a total of 38,780 billion yuan. The growth rate improved by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year but decreased by 1.1 percentage points month-on-month [2][13]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in July, up from 0.1% in June [14]. Segment Analysis - Among 16 categories of goods, three categories (oil and petroleum products, automobiles, and building and decoration materials) experienced negative growth, while the remaining categories showed positive growth. Notably, home appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as furniture, demonstrated remarkable growth, both exceeding 20% [3][21]. - Essential goods such as grain and oil (+8.6%), daily necessities (+8.2%), and traditional Chinese and Western medicines (+0.1%) showed varying growth rates, with grain and oil experiencing a slight decline [21][23]. Online Retail Performance - From January to July 2025, the cumulative online retail sales reached 86,835 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, accounting for 30.55% of total retail sales of consumer goods [40][42]. - The online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 70,790 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 6.3%, and specific categories such as food, clothing, and daily necessities saw growth rates of 14.7%, 1.7%, and 5.8%, respectively [40][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverages, social services, and retail, highlighting opportunities in the liquor industry, baby-related products, and domestic cosmetics brands due to favorable policies and market conditions [46][47]. - In the retail sector, the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to increase, and domestic beauty brands are gaining market share, making them potential investment targets [47].

Core Viewpoint - The summer dining business in China has shown mixed results, with some restaurants experiencing significant increases in customer flow and sales, while others report substantial declines, indicating a complex and uneven recovery in the restaurant industry [5][6][7]. Group 1: Summer Consumption Trends - Predictions from the China Tourism Research Institute suggest that domestic tourism numbers could exceed 2.5 billion by 2025, indicating a potential boost in summer consumption [5]. - Major cities and popular tourist destinations have seen a surge in dining and retail consumption, with some restaurants reporting daily customer numbers in the thousands and sales increases of 15% to 20% [5][7]. - However, some restaurant owners have reported that July was their worst month of the year, with weekend sales dropping nearly 60% compared to previous months [5][8]. Group 2: Regional Variations - In Northeast China, online orders for barbecue have increased by 101% year-on-year, while night-time dining for fish dishes in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai has grown by over 40% [7]. - In contrast, restaurants in Chengdu and Hangzhou have reported significant declines in business, with some owners noting that their weekend revenues have halved compared to earlier months [8][10]. Group 3: Impact of Regulations and Market Conditions - The implementation of strict alcohol bans has adversely affected mid-sized and large restaurants that rely on banquet and business dining, leading to a noticeable drop in revenue [15][17]. - The summer season, typically a peak time for various banquets, has seen a reduction in bookings due to the "no alcohol, no banquet" sentiment, with some establishments reporting a 40% drop in June revenue [17]. Group 4: Cost Pressures and Business Adjustments - Rising costs related to rent and labor have compounded the challenges faced by restaurant owners, with many reporting that despite increased order volumes, profits have declined due to high operational costs [18][21]. - Some restaurant owners are adapting by reducing staff, downsizing their premises, and focusing on cost-effective operations to maintain profitability [21][22]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategies - Restaurant operators are focusing on enhancing product quality, aligning prices with consumer expectations, and providing unique dining experiences to navigate the challenging market [21][23]. - The trend towards smaller, more manageable restaurant formats is gaining traction, with operators like Vincent planning to open smaller outlets that cater to practical consumer needs [22].

食品饮料行业 买入（维持） 业绩稳健增长，彰显龙头韧性 贵州茅台（600519）2025 年半年报点评 2025 年 8 月 13 日 投资要点： 事件：公司发布2025年半年报。 点评 主要数据 | 2025 年 8 月 12 | 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 1437.04 | | 总市值（亿元） | 18052.06 | | 总股本(亿股) | 12.56 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 12.56 | | ROE（TTM） | 34.45% | | 12 月最高价(元) | 1844.44 | | 12 月最低价(元) | 1203.07 | 股价走势 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 公 司 点 评 公 司 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn ◼ 公司2025年上半 ...

500元左右价格带，酒业曾经的"香饽饽" 每个时期，一定有主流价格带，处于这个价格带的产品，就是主流产品。纵观当下白酒行业，基本市场 上每个超级大单品，都是其所在价格带的代表性品牌，因此，占领了一个价格带，就占领了一个时代。 过去很长一段时间，白酒主流价格带都是向上升级，未雨绸缪，提前布局下一个主流价格带就显得很有 必要。此外，随着一线名酒和省级龙头逐渐挤压，各个价格带的容量也正在逐渐变小，提前布局的重要 性更加凸显，企业必须瞄准未来5年，甚至是10年后的市场。 其中，作为次高端"黄金分割线"的500元价格带，既能成为千元价位高端白酒的"平替"，又能实现社交 消费和极致性价比的心智占位，成为了众多酒企的共同选择。 古20就是500元价格带成功占位的案例之一。自2018年上市以来，仅一年多时间销售额就突破10亿大 关，创造了次高端白酒历史上增速最快的大单品纪录。截止2024年，古20已经成长为50亿级的大单品， 对古井贡酒品牌提升、全国化拓展起到了重要作用。 在2024年，500元价格带的"争夺战"进一步加剧。水井坊表示要提升500+以上产品价位带的业绩，洋河 全方位升级梦之蓝商务版，汾酒推出了汾酒青花26·复 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu market, is experiencing significant challenges in sales performance due to seasonal consumption declines and regulatory impacts, with some regions reporting sales drops exceeding 50% in June [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On August 4, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3567.02 points, rising by 0.20% [1] - The baijiu sector closed at 2170.73 points, showing a slight decline of 0.01%, with 14 baijiu stocks decreasing in value [1] - Kweichow Moutai's stock price reached 1417.97 yuan per share, increasing by 0.07% [1] - Wuliangye's stock price closed at 120.96 yuan per share, down by 0.03% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao's stock price was 123.56 yuan per share, up by 0.41% [1] - Yanghe's stock price ended at 67.85 yuan per share [1] Group 2: Sales Challenges - According to Zheshang Securities, the baijiu sales performance is under pressure in Q2 2025, with June sales significantly impacted by the "ban on alcohol" [1] - Reports indicate that some regions experienced over a 50% decline in baijiu sales in June, attributed to the off-season for consumption and lack of consumption scenarios [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the newly implemented "strictest alcohol ban" on the liquor retail industry, particularly focusing on the survival crisis faced by smoke shops, which are heavily reliant on B2B sales to government and enterprise clients [5][6][22]. Group 1: Impact of the Alcohol Ban - The "strictest alcohol ban" has led to a drastic decline in sales for smoke shops, with some regions reporting a year-on-year drop of up to 80% in white liquor sales [8][20]. - Smoke shops, which previously relied on government and enterprise orders for about 50% of their sales, are now facing a collapse in this segment due to the ban on alcohol at work-related meals [10][34]. - The overall revenue of the liquor industry in Shandong decreased by 18.7% in the first month of the ban, which is significantly better than the 40%-80% drop experienced by smoke shops [23]. Group 2: Business Model of Smoke Shops - Smoke shops operate under a unique business model that is heavily dependent on B2B sales, with government and enterprise orders constituting a large portion of their revenue [10][29]. - The article highlights that the commercial logic of smoke shops is fundamentally different from traditional retail, as they rely more on client relationships and less on retail sales [26][30]. - The shift in the market dynamics due to the ban has forced smoke shops to transition from a client-resource-based model to a market-competitive model, leading to a significant transformation in their operations [38][41]. Group 3: Future of Smoke Shops - The future of smoke shops is uncertain, with many facing the possibility of closure or a shift to different business models as they adapt to the new market conditions [45]. - Some smoke shops are exploring new avenues such as instant retail and gift card sales to mitigate the impact of the ban on their traditional business [41][42]. - Despite efforts to adapt, smoke shops face stiff competition from larger retail chains and convenience stores, which have advantages in pricing and product variety [43].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai, once considered a "myth of only rising," has experienced a significant decline, leading to substantial losses for investors and a panic sell-off in the market [1][3]. Price Movement - On July 15, 2023, the price of 2025 Flying Moutai dropped from 1940 yuan to 1930 yuan, while the price of scattered bottles fell from 1880 yuan to 1870 yuan. The 2024 Flying Moutai also saw a decline, with original box prices dropping from 1960 yuan to 1950 yuan and scattered bottle prices falling below 1850 yuan [1][8]. - The price of Moutai 1935 plummeted to 590 yuan per bottle on e-commerce platforms, only 30% of the official guide price. Compared to the peak price of over 4000 yuan in 2021, Moutai prices have shrunk by more than 30% [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to three main factors: the implementation of the strictest "ban on alcohol," a downturn in the real estate sector affecting business banquets, and an oversupply in the market with social inventory reaching 120 million bottles [3][4]. - The demand for Moutai in business settings has significantly decreased, leading to a loss of a crucial consumer base [4]. Inventory Pressure - The total inventory, including Moutai's own stock, amounts to 560 million bottles, indicating an average of nearly 2 bottles per Chinese household. Approximately 60% of unopened Moutai is being liquidated by speculators, exacerbating the market's downward pressure [4][5]. Channel Transformation - The rise of e-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo has driven down the price of Flying Moutai to the range of 1700-1800 yuan, below many distributors' costs. Moutai is also increasing its direct sales through the iMoutai app, raising the direct sales ratio to 45% [5][6]. Industry Impact - Moutai's price collapse has affected the entire liquor industry, with the price range of 1000 yuan being breached. Other liquor companies, such as Wuliangye, are also under pressure to maintain their price points [6][7]. Consumer Trends - The consumption of liquor has been declining, with the industry experiencing an 8-year consecutive drop in production. The younger generation shows a decreasing interest in liquor, with only 9% of Gen Z consuming it, and 73% reducing their alcohol intake for health reasons [7][10]. - Moutai's attempts to attract younger consumers through new products have not yielded positive results, indicating a struggle to connect with this demographic [10].