2026 年 2 月 28 日 公司研究 25Q4 各业务营收均呈双位数增长，国际业务表现强劲 ——携程集团-S（9961.HK）25Q4 业绩点评 买入（维持） 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.14 | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 2857.03 | | 一年最低/最高(港 | 397.20/613.00 | | 元)： | | | 近 3 月换手率： | 31.73% | 股价相对走势 当前价：400.40 港元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523877 wanghangyu@ebscn.com | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -16.73 | -33.72 | -21 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the paradox in the Chinese online travel agency (OTA) industry, where Ctrip, a dominant player, reported significant revenue and profit growth, while many hotels struggle with profitability [1][9][61] - Ctrip's Q3 2025 revenue reached 18.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of approximately 16%, with net profit soaring to 19.9 billion RMB, largely due to non-operating income from asset sales [2][3][4] - The disparity between Ctrip's financial success and the challenges faced by hotels raises questions about the sustainability of such growth and the impact of OTA commission structures on hotel profitability [7][18][61] Financial Performance - Ctrip's Q3 2025 net revenue was 18.3 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 16% [2] - The revenue breakdown shows accommodation bookings at 8 billion RMB (+18%), transportation tickets at 6.3 billion RMB (+12%), and travel vacation at 1.6 billion RMB (+3%) [2] - Ctrip's adjusted EBITDA reached 6.3 billion RMB, with an EBITDA margin of 34%, significantly higher than competitors like JD and Meituan [3][18] Industry Dynamics - The hotel industry is experiencing a structural crisis, with many operators reporting "no profit" despite increased revenue, indicating a severe profit squeeze [1][9][15] - The influx of capital into the hotel sector has led to oversupply, resulting in price wars and stagnant average daily rates (ADR) [10][14][15] - The reliance on OTAs for customer acquisition has made hotels increasingly dependent on platforms like Ctrip, which charge high commissions [17][18] Competitive Landscape - Ctrip is transitioning from a commission-based model to a comprehensive service provider focused on accommodation, enhancing its control over the hotel booking process [3][22] - The article discusses the competitive strategies of other players like JD and Meituan, with JD attempting to disrupt the market with a "zero commission" model, though this may not be sustainable [40][41][44] - Ctrip's international business has seen explosive growth, with international OTA bookings up 60% and inbound travel bookings more than doubling [23][25] Technological Advancements - Ctrip's use of AI tools like TripGenie has significantly reduced service costs and improved operational efficiency, allowing for higher margins on new orders [28][30][32] - The company leverages data and algorithms to optimize pricing and enhance customer engagement, solidifying its market position [33][56] Future Outlook - The article suggests that the hotel industry must innovate and differentiate to survive in a market dominated by OTAs, emphasizing the need for brand building and unique customer experiences [59][60] - Regulatory scrutiny may increase due to Ctrip's market dominance and high profit margins, posing potential risks to its business model [60][61]