港股公司点评 | 携程集团-S 日期：2026 年 03 月 04 日 国际业务增长稳健，入境游表现亮眼 携程集团-S（09961.HK）2025 四季度业绩点评 ⚫ 核心观点 事件：2 月 26 日，携程集团发布 2025 年四季度及全年未经审计的财务业绩， 2025 年旅游市场韧性强劲，携程主营业务营收稳健增长，2025Q4 公司营收 154 亿元（同比+21%），净利润 43 亿元；2025 全年公司营收 624 亿元（同比+17%）， 净利润 334 亿元，同比显著增加主因 199 亿元投资利得贡献较多。 携程 2025Q4 及全年业绩表现亮眼。分业务来看，住宿预订业务 2025Q4 营收 63 亿元，同比+21%；全年营收 261 亿元，同比+21%，主要得益于出境游和国际酒 店预订需求。交通票务业务 2025Q4 营收 54 亿元，同比+12%，国际机票预订增 长强劲；全年营收 225 亿元，同比+11%。旅游度假 2025Q4 营收 11 亿元，同比 +21%，主要受国际业务扩张驱动；全年营收 47亿元，同比+8%。商旅管理业 2025Q4 营收 8.08 亿元，同比+15%，主要由企业采用管理 ...

2026 年 2 月 28 日 公司研究 25Q4 各业务营收均呈双位数增长，国际业务表现强劲 ——携程集团-S（9961.HK）25Q4 业绩点评 买入（维持） 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.14 | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 2857.03 | | 一年最低/最高(港 | 397.20/613.00 | | 元)： | | | 近 3 月换手率： | 31.73% | 股价相对走势 当前价：400.40 港元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523877 wanghangyu@ebscn.com | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -16.73 | -33.72 | -21 ...

分业务来看，2025年全年，携程集团酒店预订业务收入为261亿元，同比增长21%；交通票务业务的收 入为225亿元，同比增长11%；旅游度假业务的收入为47亿元，同比增长8%；商旅管理业务收入实现28 亿元，同比增长13%。 2025年全年，携程集团国际OTA平台总预订同比增长约60%，全年服务入境旅客约2000万人次。入境游 成为强劲增长引擎。携程全年投入10亿元助力入境游生态建设，近7万家酒店、景点及旅行社首次从海 外平台获取入境订单。平台推动超6000家景区首次面向国际市场开放，新增外籍可订票种6.3万个，国 内头部景点95%票种已支持外籍预订。 北京商报讯(记者吴其芸)2月26日，携程集团公布2025年第四季度及全年未经审计财务业绩。财报显 示，2025年全年，携程集团净收入624亿元，同比增长17%；营业利润158亿元，同比增长11%。剔除投 资收益影响，归属于携程集团股东的净利润为134亿元。 财报显示，2025年第四季度，携程集团实现净收入154亿元，同比增长21%。这主要得益于冬季假期期 间持续旺盛的旅行需求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant revenue growth driven by robust travel demand and successful international business expansion [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 18.37 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.5% [1]. - Gross margin stood at 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points year-over-year [1]. - Operating profit reached 5.57 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-over-year [1]. - Net profit soared to 19.89 billion yuan, a remarkable year-over-year increase of 194.0%, primarily due to gains from the disposal of certain investments [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation booking revenue was 8.05 billion yuan, growing 18.3% year-over-year [1]. - Transportation ticketing revenue reached 6.31 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-over-year [1]. - Vacation business revenue was 1.61 billion yuan, increasing by 3.1% year-over-year [1]. - Business travel management revenue amounted to 0.76 billion yuan, up 15.2% year-over-year [1]. - Other business revenue was 1.65 billion yuan, showing a significant growth of 33.9% year-over-year [1]. International Business Growth - The international OTA platform saw total bookings increase by approximately 60% year-over-year in Q3 2025 [1]. - Inbound tourism bookings more than doubled, growing over 100% year-over-year [1]. - Outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, with the Asia-Pacific region being a major contributor to this growth, exceeding 50% overall [1]. Cost Structure - Sales expense ratio was 22.8%, up 1.5 percentage points year-over-year, reflecting increased marketing investments in overseas markets [2]. - Management expense ratio was 6.2%, down 0.4 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - R&D expense ratio was 22.3%, down 0.7 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - Total expense ratio was 51.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-over-year [2]. Non-Recurring Gains - The sale of MakeMyTrip shares resulted in other income of 17.03 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a substantial increase from 1.78 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - This transaction led to a significant rise in corporate income tax expenses to 3.3 billion yuan, compared to 720 million yuan in the previous year [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading domestic OTA, with steady growth in domestic operations and promising progress in international expansion [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 61.68 billion yuan, 70.16 billion yuan, and 79.54 billion yuan, with net profits of 31.65 billion yuan, 20.62 billion yuan, and 23.59 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The target market capitalization is set at 452.4 billion HKD, with a target price of 635 HKD per share, indicating a potential upside of 12.3% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais anticipates Tongcheng Travel's (00780) third-quarter core online travel platform (OTA) business to grow by 15% year-on-year to 4.6 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit reaching 1.03 billion RMB and a profit margin of 19% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue from accommodation and transportation ticketing is expected to increase by 14% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The adjusted net profit forecast has been slightly raised due to improved sales and marketing efficiency [1] Group 2: Stock Rating and Price Target - The target price for Tongcheng Travel has been raised from 20 HKD to 22 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The performance during the National Day holiday met internal expectations, indicating a positive outlook for the fourth quarter, particularly for outbound tourism [1] - The recent acquisition of Wanda Hotel Development (00169) is expected to enhance the brand value of the existing hotel management business, although its impact on this year's financial performance is anticipated to be limited due to the need for strategic development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC anticipates Tongcheng Travel (00780) will see a 15% year-on-year growth in its core online travel agency (OTA) business for Q3, reaching 4.6 billion RMB, with an adjusted net profit of 1.03 billion RMB and a profit margin of 19% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue from accommodation and transportation ticketing is expected to increase by 14% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The adjusted net profit forecast has been slightly raised due to improved sales and marketing efficiency [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Tongcheng Travel has been increased from 20 HKD to 22 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Seasonal Performance - The performance during the National Day holiday met internal expectations, indicating strong demand [1] - The fourth quarter's outbound tourism performance is deemed crucial for the group's growth prospects in 2026 [1] Acquisition Impact - The recent acquisition of Wanda Hotel Development (00169) is expected to have a limited impact on this year's financial performance due to the need for strategic development [1] - The acquisition is believed to enhance the brand value of the existing hotel management business and improve earnings per share [1]

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais forecasts that Tongcheng Travel's core online travel agency (OTA) business revenue will grow by 15% year-on-year to 4.6 billion yuan in Q3, with adjusted net profit reaching 1.03 billion yuan and a profit margin of 19% [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Expectations - The expected revenue growth for the accommodation and transportation ticketing segments is 14% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The fourth quarter's outbound tourism performance is deemed crucial for the group's growth prospects in 2026 [1] Group 2: Acquisition Impact - The recent acquisition of Wanda Hotel Development is expected to have a limited impact on this year's financial performance due to the need for the group to establish a development strategy and the limited time remaining in the year [1] - The acquisition is anticipated to enhance the brand value of the group's existing hotel management business and improve earnings per share [1] Group 3: Target Price Adjustment - The target price for Tongcheng Travel has been raised from 20 HKD to 22 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Ctrip's founders are reducing their holdings, with significant sales planned by both the chairman and the president, while the company shows strong financial performance and a robust recovery in international travel [1][2][3] Group 2 - Ctrip's founder and chairman, Liang Jianzhang, plans to sell 1 million ADS, valued at approximately $7.375 million, marking his first disclosure of a reduction plan since 2025 [1] - Co-founder and president, Fan Min, has also submitted a reduction plan to sell 70,000 ADS, valued at about $454.44 million, and has made multiple reductions throughout the year totaling approximately $30.694 million [1] - As of February 28, 2025, the core management's shareholding has increased, with Liang holding over 36.47 million shares (5.3% ownership) and CEO Sun Jie holding over 14.2 million shares (2.1% ownership) [1] Group 3 - Institutional shareholders have seen notable changes, with Baidu reducing its stake to 45.95 million shares (7.0% ownership), while Capital World Investors also decreased its holdings [2] - BlackRock has emerged as a major shareholder with over 34.81 million shares (5.3% ownership), matching Liang Jianzhang's stake [2] Group 4 - Ctrip reported a strong Q2 2025 performance with net revenue reaching 14.8 billion RMB, a 16% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by the accommodation booking segment, which saw a 21% increase [2] - The international OTA platform showed a robust recovery, with ticket bookings up over 60% year-on-year and inbound travel bookings doubling [3] Group 5 - Ctrip's board approved a share repurchase plan of up to $5 billion, following a previous repurchase of approximately $400 million in ADS [3] - R&D investment in Q2 2025 reached 3.5 billion RMB, a 17% increase, representing 24% of the net revenue, indicating a commitment to innovation and market leadership [3] Group 6 - As of the latest report, Ctrip's stock price is $71.23, with a total market capitalization of $46.556 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 4.25% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International's report indicates that Tongcheng Travel (00780) achieved a 10% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2, aligning with market expectations and the company's median guidance [1] - Adjusted net profit increased by 18% year-on-year, exceeding expectations by 3.4% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached 55.14 billion RMB, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 is projected at 10.47 billion RMB [1] - Full-year adjusted net profit is anticipated to be 33.64 billion RMB [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The average hotel price trend is improving in Q3, with expectations for Tongcheng Travel's hotel business and accommodation nights to grow slightly above industry levels [1] - Traffic ticketing business is expected to align more closely with industry trends [1] - Q3 growth projections include a 14% increase in hotel business and a 10% increase in traffic ticketing business [1] Group 3: Rating and Target Price - Haitong International maintains a "Outperform" rating for Tongcheng Travel [1] - Target price has been raised from 27 HKD to 30 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International's report indicates that Tongcheng Travel (00780) achieved a 10% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2, aligning with market expectations and the company's guidance median [1] - Adjusted net profit increased by 18% year-on-year, exceeding expectations by 3.4% [1] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached 55.14 billion RMB, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 is projected at 10.47 billion RMB, with an annual forecast of 33.64 billion RMB [1] Future Outlook - The average hotel price trend is improving in Q3, with expectations for Tongcheng Travel's hotel business and accommodation nights to grow slightly above industry levels [1] - Anticipated growth rates for Q3 include 14% for hotel business and 10% for transportation ticketing [1] - Other revenue sources are expected to maintain a strong growth momentum [1] Rating and Target Price - Haitong International maintains a "Outperform" rating for Tongcheng Travel, raising the target price from 27 HKD to 30 HKD [1]