德意志银行股价自2008年全球金融危机爆发初期以来首次突破账面价值，这标志着这家德国最大银行在经历了多年的法律挫折、资产减记和重组 后，终于迎来转型的关键里程碑。 在1月5日的早盘交易中，德意志银行股价攀升至33.95欧元，超越了该行最近报告的每股账面价值33.66欧元。尽管最终收盘价回落至33.81欧元， 但这依然是一个重要的分水岭。 市净率（Price-to-Book ratio）是衡量银行估值的关键指标，反映了投资者对银行资产质量、回报率及增长前景的信心。自2008年初银行业健康状 况引发市场疑虑以来，德意志银行的股价长期处于低于账面价值的折价交易状态。 分析师指出，德国政府方面以债务融资驱动的投资计划预计将利好德意志银行的投资银行部门，使其作为主权债券发行和企业重组顾问的角色受 益。同时，企业信贷需求的上升也将提振其贷款业务的利润。 在2020年，投资者担忧新冠疫情引发的经济衰退可能破坏Sewing的重组计划，加之欧洲央行的负利率政策、巨额重组成本以及裁员计划受阻，导 致银行盈利深受拖累。 然而，随着欧洲银行股在过去三年经历广泛反弹，投资者信心已缓慢回归。 德意志银行不仅摆脱了包括抵押贷款支持证券不当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings season for major U.S. banks is expected to show strong performance driven by a recovery in investment banking and resilient economic conditions supporting consumer and commercial lending [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - JPMorgan is projected to see a more than 10% increase in earnings per share (EPS) for Q3, with investment banking revenues expected to grow in the low double digits [1]. - Bank of America anticipates nearly a 17% year-over-year increase in EPS, with investment banking revenues expected to rise by 10% to 15% [2]. - Citigroup's EPS is expected to surge by 26%, primarily driven by capital markets activities [2]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 31% increase in EPS, benefiting from a rebound in investment banking and trading [2]. - Morgan Stanley expects over an 11% increase in EPS, supported by its strengths in capital markets and wealth management [2]. - Wells Fargo's EPS is projected at 1.54, while other banks have specific EPS estimates as well [3]. Group 2: Investment Banking Activity - Investment banking activities have rebounded due to regulatory easing and expectations of further interest rate cuts, with JPMorgan describing the summer as one of its busiest merger seasons [4]. - As of mid-September, 49 merger deals were announced in Q3, up from 39 in Q2 and 32 in the same period last year, with a total global merger volume reaching $2.6 trillion, the highest since the pandemic peak in 2021 [4]. Group 3: Trading and Interest Income Outlook - Trading revenues are expected to grow, with analysts noting that Q3 typically sees lower trading activity, but 2025 appears to break this trend [6]. - Net interest income (NII) is anticipated to remain robust due to the resilient U.S. economy, with banks reporting that consumer financial conditions are stable [6]. - Concerns are emerging regarding potential increases in default rates among small businesses, despite the overall positive outlook for investment and commercial banking [6].

Group 1: Trading Revenue Surge - Major banks in Wall Street reported record trading revenues in Q2, driven by market volatility from Trump's tariff policies [1] - JPMorgan's fixed income trading generated $5.69 billion, while equity trading reached $3.25 billion, marking the best Q2 performance ever [1] - Citigroup's equity trading revenue was $1.61 billion, and fixed income trading surged 20% to $4.27 billion, exceeding forecasts [1] Group 2: Investment Banking Recovery - Investment banking fees showed unexpected growth, with JPMorgan's fees increasing by 7%, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 14% decline [2] - Citigroup's investment banking fees rose 13% year-over-year, surpassing $1 billion [2] Group 3: Mixed Performance Among Banks - Wells Fargo did not achieve similar success, with investment banking fees growing about 9% but falling short of analyst expectations [3] - Market volatility has led to cautious behavior among clients regarding borrowing and investment, impacting Wells Fargo's trading revenue [3]