分析师：张洋 登记编码：S0730516040002 证券Ⅱ zhangyang-yjs@ccnew.com 021-50586627 券商板块 2026 年 1 月回顾及 2 月前瞻 ——券商板块月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 证券Ⅱ相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：聚源、中原证券研究所 -14% -9% -4% 1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 相关报告 | 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 | 2025 年 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾及 2026 年 | 1 月前瞻》 2026-01-28 | | | 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 | 2025 年 | 11 月 | | 回顾及 12 月前瞻》 | 2025-12-26 | | | 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 | 2025 年 | 10 月 | | 回顾及 11 月前瞻》 | 2025-11-25 | | 联系人：李智 ⚫ 券商板块 2026 年 1 月行情回顾：1 月券商指数尝试转强但以失败 告终，全月在各行业指数中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a synchronized performance with the market [1]. Core Insights - The brokerage index attempted to strengthen in January 2026 but ultimately failed, resulting in a decline of 1.49%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.65% [5][8]. - The brokerage sector experienced increased differentiation, with a notable number of stocks outperforming the brokerage index, leading to a higher average P/B ratio fluctuating between 1.426 and 1.541 times [5][11][14]. - The overall market conditions for January 2026 were characterized by a significant increase in trading volumes and a record high in margin financing balances, indicating a robust trading environment despite the sector's overall weakness [7][30]. Summary by Sections 1. January 2026 Brokerage Market Review - The brokerage index's performance was weak, with a 1.49% decline, ranking 28th among 30 industry indices [5][8]. - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.426 and 1.541 times, reflecting a slight increase in valuation [14]. - A total trading volume of 1.03 trillion yuan was recorded, marking a 40.1% increase month-on-month [9]. 2. Key Market Factors Impacting January 2026 Performance - The equity market faced resistance after an initial rise, while the fixed income market showed signs of mild recovery, contributing to a rebound in proprietary trading [7][18]. - The average daily trading volume reached a historical high of 3.05 trillion yuan, with a total monthly trading volume of 60.90 trillion yuan, indicating a strong recovery in brokerage activity [26]. - Margin financing balances reached 27,153 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.9% month-on-month increase and a 53.1% year-on-year increase [30]. 3. February 2026 Performance Outlook for Listed Brokerages - Proprietary trading is expected to decline due to a cooling equity market, while brokerage activity may experience a seasonal drop in performance [7][40]. - The brokerage index is anticipated to face continued weakness, with a potential drop in overall monthly performance expected to return to relative lows seen in the previous 12 months [7][45]. - The report suggests that if the brokerage sector's valuation drops to 1.3x P/B, it may present a good opportunity for re-entry, particularly for leading firms with strong wealth management capabilities [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to leverage the accelerating IPO issuance pace to enhance revenue through various strategies, focusing on strengthening its client base and optimizing its investment banking services [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company will actively grasp the favorable timing of the accelerated IPO issuance [1] - It plans to enhance revenue levels through multiple measures [1] - The company is committed to deepening its presence in branch institutions, investment platforms, and with China Merchants Bank [1] Group 2: Client Development - The company aims to strengthen its client system and solidify its enterprise customer base [1] - It will continuously build a technology investment banking brand and dynamically optimize the "three investment" linkage mechanism [1] - The company seeks to enhance cooperation with VC institutions, focusing on early identification of quality technology enterprises [1] Group 3: Industry Focus - The company is actively promoting the "Strong Chain Project" to connect "Leaping Enterprises" with leading enterprises [1] - It aims to deepen the integration of industry and finance, focusing on three core tracks: digital technology, green technology, and life sciences [1] - The company intends to explore high-quality enterprises within the industrial chain and actively support China Merchants Group's third entrepreneurial phase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the brokerage sector is expected to confirm a high growth trend in 2025, driven by increased trading activity and a recovery in investment banking and public asset management businesses [1] Group 1: Performance Forecast - The brokerage sector is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.77 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47% [1] - For Q4 2025, the expected net profit is 4.87 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 25% [1] - The total revenue for the brokerage sector in 2025 is estimated at 58.68 billion yuan, with a main revenue of 57.04 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37% [1] Group 2: Investment Business - In Q4 2025, the brokerage sector is expected to generate total investment income of 58 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 19% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23% [2] - The stock market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a 0.23% decline in Q4 2025 [2] - The bond market also faced fluctuations, with the CSI All Bonds Index down by 0.08% in Q4 2025 [2] Group 3: Brokerage and Margin Financing Business - The average daily trading volume for stocks in Q4 2025 was 2.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18% [3] - The average daily margin financing balance reached 2.49 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% [3] - The brokerage business revenue is expected to be 46.3 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [3] Group 4: Investment Banking Business - The A-share IPO scale in Q4 2025 was 54.9 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 165% [4] - The bond underwriting scale for brokerages in Q4 2025 was 3.8 trillion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [4] - The investment banking business revenue is projected to be 12 billion yuan in Q4 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 17% [4] Group 5: Asset Management Business - The market size of non-money market funds reached 21.9 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16% [5] - The asset management revenue for brokerages is expected to be 14.5 billion yuan in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25% [6] - The public fund fee reform has been gradually implemented, positively impacting the asset management income [5]

Core Viewpoint - The major banks on Wall Street are optimistic about the continuation of a trading boom, with executives predicting a strong outlook for 2026, despite existing market uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Trading Revenue and Market Activity - The total trading revenue of the five major Wall Street banks reached a record $134 billion last year, coinciding with a resurgence in M&A activity [1]. - The U.S. banks, including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, reported their highest profits since 2021, returning over $140 billion to shareholders, surpassing the previous record set in 2019 [3]. Group 2: Executive Insights and Market Conditions - Morgan Stanley's CEO Ted Pick described the current trading environment as being in the "middle innings" of a baseball game, indicating a favorable position for continued trading activity [4]. - Goldman Sachs reported that its advisory, bond, and equity underwriting projects have reached near-record levels, with a positive outlook for M&A and capital market activities in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Caution and Market Risks - While the overall outlook is positive, executives have expressed caution regarding asset prices being at historical highs, which could suppress trading activity if significant corrections occur [5]. - Morgan Stanley executives noted that they have not yet raised performance targets, indicating a careful approach to future earnings predictions [6].

Core Insights - The trading boom on Wall Street in Q4 2025 did not diminish the business growth momentum of Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), marking one of the strongest years for investment banking since the pandemic [1][2] Group 1: Goldman Sachs Performance - Goldman Sachs reported a Q4 net profit of $4.6 billion, with diluted earnings per share of $14.01, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase [1] - The firm’s trading fee income in Q4 grew by 25% to $2.57 billion, aligning with analyst expectations [4] - For the full year, Goldman Sachs' profits, trading fees, and net revenue reached the second-highest levels in history, only behind the peak in 2021 [3] - The core merger advisory business saw a 41% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4, reaching $1.36 billion, which met analyst expectations [3] - CEO David Solomon expressed optimism for 2026, predicting a favorable outlook for mergers and capital markets, potentially surpassing the peak merger transaction volume of 2021 [3] Group 2: Morgan Stanley Performance - Morgan Stanley's Q4 net profit increased by 18% to $4.4 billion, driven by a 47% surge in trading revenue [1][2] - The firm’s stock trading fee income in Q4 rose by 10%, with an annual increase of 28% [3] - Morgan Stanley set new historical records for both net revenue and net profit for the full year [3] Group 3: Industry Context - The overall trading activity on Wall Street was robust throughout most of 2025, although some competitors experienced a decline in trading activity by Q4 [4] - JPMorgan Chase reported a 4% year-over-year decline in investment banking fee income, falling short of analyst expectations [5] - Bank of America saw a slight 1% increase in Q4 investment banking fee income, exceeding market expectations despite declines in stock underwriting and merger advisory revenues [5] - Wells Fargo reported a 1% decrease in Q4 investment banking fee income, but achieved a record high in annual trading revenue [6] - Citigroup's merger advisory revenue soared by 84% year-over-year in Q4, contributing to a record total trading fee income of $1.29 billion, a 35% increase [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that JPMorgan Chase's investment banking revenue unexpectedly declined in Q4, failing to meet the bank's previous performance guidance [1] - JPMorgan reported a Q4 revenue of $46.77 billion, a 7% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations by $520 million, with a Non-GAAP EPS of $5.23, surpassing estimates by $0.37 [1][2] - The bank's investment banking revenue for Q4 was $2.35 billion, down 5% year-over-year, contrary to the previous expectation of low single-digit percentage growth [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in investment banking performance was primarily due to a surprising 2% drop in bond underwriting revenue, while analysts had anticipated a 19% increase [1][2] - JPMorgan's trading revenue reached $8.24 billion in Q4, exceeding analyst expectations, with both equity and fixed income trading departments outperforming market forecasts [2] - The bank's net interest income rose 7% year-over-year to $25.1 billion, supported by a 3% increase in loan balances to $1.5 trillion [2] Group 3 - JPMorgan set aside $2.2 billion for credit losses related to its new partnership with Apple, which will replace Goldman Sachs as the credit card partner [3] - The total provision for potential bad loans increased by $2.1 billion in the last three months of the year, aligning with market expectations [3]

Core Insights - The bank earnings season is set to begin with major banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of New York Mellon reporting first, followed by Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley following later [1] - Investment banking revenue is expected to boost Q4 performance, with Dealogic forecasting a 15% year-over-year increase in global investment banking revenue to $103 billion and a 42% rise in M&A deal volume to $5.1 trillion [1] - Consensus estimates for Q4 earnings per share (EPS) show Citigroup leading with a 21% year-over-year growth among global systemically important banks, while Bank of America is expected to see a 16.1% increase [1][4] Investment Banking Outlook - Morgan Stanley's model predicts a 9% year-over-year increase in investment banking fees for Q4, slightly below the market expectation of 11%, with M&A advisory fees expected to rise by 15% [2] - Market revenue is anticipated to grow by 8% year-over-year, surpassing the market expectation of 7%, with equity trading revenue projected to increase by 12% [2] - Analysts favor Bank of New York Mellon and State Street for positive earnings guidance due to their potential for improved tangible common equity returns and clearer operational leverage sustainability [2] M&A and Market Activity - M&A deal volume is projected to surge by 65% year-over-year in Q4, with the impact of completed transactions expected to extend into the following year [1] - Goldman Sachs reported a 40% increase in sponsor-led transaction volume for 2025, indicating a robust M&A environment [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimates for major banks include JPMorgan Chase at $4.98 (3.5% increase), Citigroup at $1.62 (20.7% increase), and Goldman Sachs at $11.54 (-3.4% decrease) [4] - Notable revisions in EPS expectations show significant upward adjustments for PNC Financial Services and Northern Trust, while Citigroup's estimates have been notably reduced [2][4] Future Projections - Looking ahead to 2026, growth in trading, wealth management, and investment banking is expected, although net interest income growth may slow due to declining interest rates [3] - Analysts highlight Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of New York Mellon as having the best prospects for net interest income growth in the coming year [3]

Group 1: Earnings Reports and Expectations - The earnings season for banks will commence with JPMorgan Chase and Bank of New York Mellon reporting on Tuesday, followed by Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday [1] - Consensus expectations for Q4 earnings per share (EPS) show Citigroup leading with a 21% year-over-year growth among global systemically important banks, while Bank of New York Mellon is expected to grow by 15% in the trust bank category [1] - The most significant upward revisions in EPS consensus over the past six months are for Morgan Stanley (16% growth), Bank of New York Mellon (7.1% growth), and U.S. Bancorp [1] Group 2: Investment Banking and Market Activity - Investment banking revenue is projected to support Q4 performance, with Dealogic forecasting a 15% year-over-year increase in global investment banking revenue to $103 billion and a 42% rise in M&A deal volume to $5.1 trillion [1] - Morgan Stanley's model predicts a 9% year-over-year increase in investment banking fees for Q4, slightly below the market expectation of 11%, while M&A advisory fees are expected to rise by 15% [2] - The trading revenue is anticipated to grow by 8% year-over-year, with equity trading expected to increase by 12%, surpassing the 5% growth forecast for fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodities trading [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Insights - Analysts expect that transaction, wealth management, and investment banking will drive growth in 2026, with a slowdown in net interest income growth due to declining interest rates [3] - The banks with the best prospects for net interest income growth in the coming year are Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of New York Mellon, while Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are preferred in trading business [3] - In the M&A sector, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are viewed positively for their performance [3] Group 4: Accounting Changes and Financial Impact - Bank of America announced a change in accounting treatment related to tax-advantaged housing and renewable energy investments, which will minimally impact annualized net income [2] - Following the accounting change, Bank of America's retained earnings as of September 30, 2025, will decrease by $1.7 billion, reflecting cumulative effects from the timing differences in expense recognition [2]

Group 1: Strategic Growth Initiatives - The bank's strategic layout for the coming years will focus on non-interest income as a core growth engine, optimizing asset-liability structure, and exploring new growth points [2] - Key areas of focus include wealth management, investment banking (bond underwriting, asset securitization), and expanding supply chain finance [2] - The bank aims to enhance its digital banking capabilities and apply digital RMB, while maintaining strict risk control to ensure sustainable value creation for shareholders [2] Group 2: Credit Policy and Loan Quality - The bank's new credit policy for business loans prioritizes support for stable cash flow entities and merchants with good development prospects [3] - The proportion of collateralized and credit-based business loans is being monitored, with collateralized loans focusing on high-quality real estate [3] - Despite a decline in property prices, the bank assesses that the overall asset quality of business loans remains controllable due to rigorous pre-loan assessments and ongoing risk management [3]