【中泰电新】嘉元科技（688388）25年业绩预告点评：盈利拐点向上，重点关注固态铜箔和光模块进展！ 事件：公司发布25年业绩预告，25年实现收入95.0-97.5亿元，同比+45.65%-49.49%，实现归母利润5000万元-6500 万元，同比扭亏为盈；其中25Q4实现归母净利润1700万元，同比扭亏为盈，环比+303%。 我们预计公司25Q4出货2.83万吨，同比+29%，环 我们预计公司25Q4出货2.83万吨，同比+29%，环比+5%，25全年9.5万吨左右；截止25年底产能约14万吨，26年计 划扩产3.5万吨，叠加外协，预计26年出货17万吨（其中国内15万吨+海外2万吨）。 伴随产能利用率提升、良率提升、订单结构升级，公司25年单吨利润逐季度提升，我们预计26年锂电铜箔行业紧 张背景下加工费上涨可期，叠加公司海外出货放量，公司有望走出23-25年的下行周期，单吨利润显著修复。 公司固态电池负极集流体积累深厚，自主研发高比表面拓界铜箔、双面镀镍铜箔、多孔铜箔等多种方案，头部公 司测试进展顺利，25年预计出货量达100吨。 我们预计公司26年盈利6.5E（不考虑涨价，国内加工费每涨1000元对应 ...

Group 1: 嘉元科技 - Shipment target for 2026 is 17wt, with expected capacity of 13-14wt by the end of 2025, considering cautious expansion due to current profits [1] - Solid copper foil shipments are projected at approximately 100t in 2025 and 1kt in 2026 [1] - Single order prices have increased by 1-2k, while long-term contracts with major clients have not yet adjusted; net profit per ton is expected to be 2-3k next year, potentially higher if price increases are realized [1] Group 2: 中一科技 - Lithium battery and electronic shipments are targeted at 6wt+ and 1-1.5wt for 2025, with 6-6.5wt and 2wt for 2026; current capacities are 4wt and 1.5wt [1] - Price increases of 1-2k have been implemented for small clients, while major clients' prices are determined through semi-annual bidding; a planned price increase of 2k is expected in December [1] - The company aims to establish a self-generated negative electrode pilot line by mid-2026 [1] Group 3: 诺德股份 - Monthly shipments have increased from 5-5.5kt before August to 6k in September and 7kt in October, with projections of 8kt+ in November and December [1] - Total capacity is currently 14wt, with an expected increase of 1.5wt next year; price increases are anticipated due to supply-demand gaps [1] - High-end products, particularly 4.5μm, accounted for over 60% in H1 2025 and are expected to exceed 70% currently [1] Group 4: 天际股份 - Shipment target for next year is over 5wt, with current shipments between 3.8w-3.9wt and monthly shipments around 3.8-4k [2] - Some core clients have accepted monthly price negotiations, with December prices expected to be no lower than 15w [2] - Lithium sulfide production is expected to reach 20-30 tons next year, with a unit price exceeding 200w [2] Group 5: 安达科技 - Shipment targets are set at 11wt for 2025 and 15wt for 2026, with full production expected by Q1 2026 [2] - The company plans to finalize pricing for H1 2026 by mid-December, with small clients currently paying 2-3k more than large clients [2] - Expected processing fee for iron lithium in 2026 is around 1.6w, with a price increase of 2k anticipated [2] Group 6: 英联股份 - A procurement agreement for composite aluminum foil for solid-state applications has been signed, with expected production of 2kw in 2026 and 3kw in 2027 [2] - The total value of the agreement is estimated at 3-4 billion, with the first batch expected to ship in December [2] - The lithium metal negative electrode production line is set to begin installation in December, with plans for batch product supply by Q1 2026 [2]

Core Insights - The solid-state battery index decreased by 0.8% from June 30 to July 4, with a cumulative increase of 18.2% expected by 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index which is projected to increase by 17.0% [1][4] - Among the solid-state battery-related stocks, the average decline was 1.3%, with only the current collectors segment showing an increase of 7.0% [1][4] Stock Performance - Top five gainers: Zhongyi Technology (+21.1%), Defu Technology (+21.0%), Honggong Technology (+21.0%), Yuanhang Precision (+12.2%), and Jiayuan Technology (+6.7%) [1][4] - Top five losers: Yinglian Co. (-17.7%), Nuode Co. (-12.9%), Tianji Co. (-11.3%), Jinlongyu (-9.2%), and Zhonglun New Materials (-8.5%) [1][4] Industry Developments - Shanghai Xiba plans to participate in the auction for Yuyuan Rare Earth's lithium sulfide business assets [2] - Several companies have secured orders for solid-state battery copper foil products, including Defu Technology with a significant order from a leading power battery customer [2] - Anwa Technology has successfully launched the first GWh-level solid-state battery production line, marking a significant advancement in solid-state battery development [2] - The industry is transitioning from laboratory stages to mass production validation, with expectations for small batch vehicle testing by the end of 2025 and widespread testing in 2026-2027 [2]