证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 03 月 02 日 行业及产业 电力设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：海外主要云 厂商资本开支持续增长，DRAM 价格小幅回落》 2026-02-09 《光储行业跟踪：全国性储能容量电价机制出 台，储能系统价格持续上涨》2026-02-09 《锂电行业跟踪：碳酸锂价格下行，储能电芯 均价上行》2026-02-09 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：甲骨文资本 开支环比高增，DRAM 价格小幅回落》 2026-02-03 《锂电行业跟踪：碳酸锂价格下跌，储能电芯 均价持续上涨》2026-02-03 朱攀 S0820525070001 021-32229888-25527 zhupan@ajzq.com 联系人 陆嘉怡 S0820124120008 021-32229888-25521 lujiayi@ajzq.com ——锂电行业跟踪 津巴布韦暂停锂精矿出口，碳酸锂价格 大幅上涨 强于大市 投资要点： 排产：1 月份国内电池和磷酸铁锂正极材料产量同比增长。2026 年 1 ...

上 市 公 司 电力设备 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 02 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 25.96 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8859.49 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 37.20/13.32 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 460.09 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 761.50 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8848 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -19% 31% 81% 131% HSCEI 中创新航 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 03 月 02 日 中创新航 (03931) ——25 年利润预告超预期，景气周期驱动盈利向上 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 曾子栋 A0230525070007 zengzd@swsresearch.com 马天一 A0230525040004 maty@swsresearch.com 联系人 曾子栋 A0230525070007 zengzd@swsresearch.com 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | 2023 | | 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The production of positive materials in December showed a year-on-year increase, with domestic battery production reaching 201.7 GWh in December 2025, a growth of approximately 62% year-on-year and 14% month-on-month [2] - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 134,000 CNY/ton as of February 6, 2026, reflecting a weekly decline of 9.46% [2] - The average price of energy storage cells has significantly increased, with prices for various types of lithium iron phosphate cells rising by 3.02% to 4.96% as of February 6, 2026 [2] - The demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries reached a monthly shipment of 79.8 GWh in December 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.82% [2] - The global sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.1521 million units in December 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.50% [2] Summary by Sections Production - In December 2025, the production of lithium iron phosphate positive materials was 26,930 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.48% [2] Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was reported at 47,100 CNY/ton on January 9, 2026, an increase of 4.43% from January 4, 2026 [2] - The average price of liquid-cooled container energy storage systems increased slightly, with prices reaching 0.48 and 0.55 CNY/Wh as of February 6, 2026 [2] Domestic Demand - The monthly shipment of ternary power batteries remained stable at 18.2 GWh in December 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 27.27% [2] Overseas Demand - The export volume of Chinese power batteries in December 2025 was 19.0 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.29% [2]

Report Title - "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report: Market Sentiment Dominates, Carbonate Lithium Awaits Stabilization" [1] Analyst Information - Analyst: Zhang Qing [2] - Consulting Account: Z0019679 [2] - Institution: Zhonghui Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] Market View Summary Macroeconomic Overview - In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3 (previous value 50.1), and non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (previous value 50.2), both falling below the boom - bust line, indicating weak domestic and foreign demand and potential acceleration of growth - stabilizing policies; the US manufacturing PMI was 52.6, non - manufacturing PMI was 53.8, higher than previous values and expectations, with ADP employment adding 22,000, lower than expectations and previous values. The Fed paused rate cuts, and the new chairman nomination increased uncertainty in future rate - cut paths, leading to sharp corrections in precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and global equity markets [3] Supply Side - This week, carbonate lithium production declined slightly due to the Spring Festival holiday and maintenance. However, in January, Chile exported 16,950 tons of carbonate lithium to China, a 44.82% month - on - month increase, which may offset the domestic supply reduction in February [3] Demand Side - In January, national passenger car retail sales were 1.794 million, a 12.1% year - on - year and 31.9% month - on - month decline. The share of self - owned brands rose to 61%. National new - energy vehicle wholesale was estimated at 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. Tesla China's wholesale sales were 69,129 [4] Cost and Profit - This week, ore prices dropped significantly. African SC 5% was quoted at $1,650/ton, a $250/ton week - on - week decline; Australian 6% lithium spodumene CIF was $1,843/ton, a $502/ton decline; lithium mica was priced at 5,900 yuan/ton, an 800 yuan/ton decline. The carbonate lithium industry profit was 36,139 yuan/ton, a 3,529 yuan/ton decrease [4] Total Inventory - As of February 5, the total inventory was 105,463 tons, a 2,019 - ton decrease from last week. Upstream smelter inventory was 18,356 tons, a 647 - ton decrease [4] Market Outlook - The basis strengthened compared to last week. The discount range for battery - grade carbonate lithium was 800 - 2,000 yuan/ton, and for industrial - grade and quasi - battery - grade was 1,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton. In actual transactions, the discount range for battery - grade was 500 - 2,000 yuan/ton. Lithium salt producers were less willing to sell spot orders, while traders were active. Downstream material producers had basically completed pre - holiday inventory preparations. The main carbonate lithium contract dropped sharply, erasing all January gains. Weak external precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, along with insufficient market liquidity, led to the continuous decline of carbonate lithium prices in search of support. The fundamentals showed no obvious negative factors, with inventory reduction continuing during the off - season. Downstream buyers were active in price - fixing when prices dropped sharply, with large volumes traded at the limit - down price. Due to the terminal's rush for exports, demand was slightly advanced, and downstream mainstream material producers maintained high operating rates, less affected by the Spring Festival. Upstream smelter production declined from the peak, and lithium salt producers' maintenance and production cuts were gradually evident. In February, the overall inventory reduction trend continued. The significant month - on - month increase in Chile's shipments in January led to concerns about inventory accumulation in the peak season in March. Coupled with high pre - holiday market volatility, funds actively left the market to avoid risks, resulting in a continuous decline in carbonate lithium positions. It is recommended to wait for price stabilization before establishing long positions and to hold no positions during the Spring Festival [5] Lithium - Battery Industry Price List - Various lithium - battery products showed price declines from January 30 to February 6, such as lithium spodumene (6% CIF: from $2,345/ton to $1,843/ton, - 21.41%; African SC 5%: from $1,900/ton to $1,650/ton, - 13.16%), lithium mica (from 6,700 yuan/ton to 5,900 yuan/ton, - 11.94%), battery - grade carbonate lithium (from 157,000 yuan/ton to 135,000 yuan/ton, - 14.01%), etc. Some products like metal lithium and certain grades of artificial and natural negative electrode materials remained unchanged [6] Weekly Market Review - As of February 6, the LC2605 contract closed at 132,920 yuan/ton, a 10.3% decline from last week. The spot price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 135,000 yuan/ton, a 14% decline. The basis changed from discount to premium, and the main contract position was 328,000. The sharp decline of the main contract was mainly due to the deep correction in non - ferrous and precious metal sectors, increasing the risk of market panic selling. Exchange position limits and pre - holiday risk - aversion needs led to a shortage of market liquidity. Despite the off - season inventory reduction in the fundamentals, prices continued to decline without new capital inflows [7] Production Situation of Related Products Carbonate Lithium - As of February 6, carbonate lithium production was 23,685 tons, a 375 - ton week - on - week decrease. The enterprise operating rate was 51.44%, a 0.81% decline. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, some enterprises arranged maintenance or holidays, resulting in a seasonal production decrease. The 16,950 - ton increase in Chile's exports to China in January offset the domestic reduction [9] Lithium Hydroxide - As of February 6, lithium hydroxide production was 6,450 tons, a 90 - ton week - on - week decrease. The enterprise operating rate was 43.28%, a 0.61% decline. Affected by the Spring Festival and enterprise maintenance, the operating rate remained low. Downstream material producers mainly fulfilled long - term contracts, and with sharp price fluctuations, they only made rigid purchases [11] Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of February 6, lithium iron phosphate production was 97,653 tons, a 1,950 - ton week - on - week decrease. The enterprise operating rate was 86.01%, a 1.72% decline. Affected by the decline in power orders and some enterprises' production load reduction and Sichuan's maintenance, production decreased slightly, but mainstream enterprises still maintained high operating rates [13] Ternary Materials - The report mentions that demand for ternary materials was slightly advanced, and production operating rates increased, but specific production data is not detailed [15] Other Cathode Materials - In the traditional off - season of consumer electronics, the production and operating rates of manganese acid lithium and cobalt acid lithium declined, but detailed production change data is not provided in a comprehensive manner [23][28] Inventory Situation Carbonate Lithium Total Inventory - As of February 5, the total carbonate lithium industry inventory was 105,463 tons, a 783 - ton decrease from last week, and the warehouse - receipt inventory was 33,777 tons, a 3,146 - ton increase. The total inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks. As prices fell, lithium salt producers' off - season inventory reduction accelerated. Terminal demand was advanced due to export rush, and the Spring Festival had limited impact on production. After price drops, traders were active in purchasing, leading to an increase in warehouse receipts [32] Downstream Inventory - For lithium iron phosphate, as of February 6, the total industry inventory was 27,293 tons, a 785 - ton decrease. The finished - product inventory continued to decline. Downstream energy - storage demand provided support, promoting enterprises to actively sell goods. Most enterprises prioritized shipping existing inventory to accelerate inventory reduction, but the risk of inventory accumulation due to the continuous decline in power demand should be noted [35] - For ternary materials, the report only shows the inventory trend chart, and there is no specific description of the inventory change situation. For manganese acid lithium, cobalt acid lithium, and ternary precursors, the same situation exists, with only inventory trend charts provided and no detailed change descriptions [38][40][45] Cost and Profit Situation Cost - Side - As of February 6, the African SC 5% ore was quoted at $1,650/ton, a $250/ton week - on - week decline; the Australian 6% lithium spodumene CIF was $1,843/ton, a $502/ton decline; the lithium mica market price was 5,900 yuan/ton, an 800 yuan/ton decline. Lithium salt producers' inventory replenishment was basically completed, and new purchases were few. The basis of lithium ore remained stable. The Australian ore shipment volume was moderately low, and the raw - material supply was still tight [46] Profit - Side - For carbonate lithium, as of February 6, the production cost was 121,050 yuan/ton, a 5,056 - yuan week - on - week decrease, and the industry profit was 29,550 yuan/ton, a 14,452 - yuan decrease. Lithium ore prices dropped significantly following the market, reducing the cost pressure on enterprises using imported ore, while the profits of enterprises with their own mines and salt lakes were not significantly affected. The lithium mica processing fee increased slightly, and the industry was still in the profit range [48] - For lithium hydroxide, as of February 6, the production cost was 110,259 yuan/ton, a 7,536 - yuan week - on - week decrease, and the industry profit was 37,972 yuan/ton, a 5,072 - yuan decrease. This week, the spot trading of aluminum hydroxide was light, downstream procurement basically ended, and the sharp decline in carbonate lithium prices led to a lack of support for lithium hydroxide prices and a marginal weakening of industry profits [50] - For lithium iron phosphate, as of February 6, the production cost was 50,655 yuan/ton, a 5,495 - yuan week - on - week decrease, and the loss was 2,056 yuan/ton, a 134 - yuan/ton decrease. This week, the sharp drop in raw - material prices dragged down the lithium iron phosphate price, but due to some enterprises' price - holding and reluctant - to - sell behavior, the transaction price remained relatively high, with a smaller price decline than the raw - material side, leading to a slight narrowing of the industry loss [53] - For ternary materials, the report shows the cost and profit trend charts, but there is no specific description of the cost and profit change data. The same situation exists for cobalt acid lithium, manganese acid lithium, and ternary precursors [57][60][62]

Core Viewpoint - The phosphochemical industry is an essential raw material sector in the national economy, with products widely used in agriculture, food, pharmaceuticals, electronics, construction materials, and new energy [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - By the second half of 2025, the lithium battery industry is expected to show significant recovery, with steady increases in production scheduling and operating rates across the entire industry chain [1] - The strong demand for phosphorus-containing materials is expected to drive consumption of upstream raw materials such as phosphate rock and high-purity phosphoric acid, supporting the recovery of the phosphochemical industry chain [1] Group 2: Resource Constraints - China has limited phosphate rock resources and strong environmental constraints, leading to a continuous tightening of domestic supply [1] - Phosphate rock is the core raw material for the phosphochemical industry, with China supporting nearly half of the global production with only 5% of the world's reserves, highlighting significant resource security pressures [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high, with leading companies currently enjoying a gross profit margin of around 80% [1] - Downstream demand for phosphate fertilizers remains rigid, but its proportion is expected to decrease from 78% in 2015 to 54% in 2024; meanwhile, the consumption share of wet phosphoric acid is projected to increase from 7% in 2021 to 17% in 2024, partly driven by new energy demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a net profit loss of 90 million to 110 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to changes in the supply-demand structure and a slowdown in capacity expansion within the lithium battery industry [1] Industry Summary - In 2024, the lithium battery industry is anticipated to face challenges such as changes in supply-demand dynamics and a deceleration in production expansion, leading to fewer new orders for the company as an upstream lithium battery equipment provider [1] - Despite an overall recovery in demand for the lithium battery industry in 2025, the company's revenue from coating applications and energy systems is expected to decline year-on-year due to intensified market competition, price pressures on certain orders, and extended project delivery and acceptance cycles [1] - The company's new signed orders for coating applications are projected to increase year-on-year, driven by a steady rise in capacity utilization rates among downstream customers [1]

Domestic Overview - In December, the production of domestic power and other batteries reached 201.7 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.1% and a month-on-month increase of 14.4%. The production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 40.6 GWh and 160.5 GWh, accounting for 20.1% and 79.5% respectively [1] - The installed capacity of domestic power batteries in December was 98.1 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 35.1% and a month-on-month increase of 4.9%. The installed capacity for ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 18.2 GWh and 79.8 GWh, making up 18.6% and 81.3% respectively [2] - The top three companies in terms of installed capacity for domestic power batteries in December were CATL with 45.71 GWh (46.6%), BYD with 17.63 GWh (18.0%), and Zhongxin Innovation with 7 GWh (7.1%) [3] Annual Overview - From January to December, the cumulative production of domestic power and other batteries reached 1755.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 60.1%. The cumulative production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 347.6 GWh and 1405.1 GWh, accounting for 19.8% and 80.0% respectively [4] - The cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries from January to December was 769.7 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.4%. The cumulative installed capacity for ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 144.1 GWh and 625.3 GWh, representing 18.7% and 81.2% respectively [4] - The top three companies for cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries from January to December were CATL with 333.57 GWh (43.3%), BYD with 165.77 GWh (21.5%), and Zhongxin Innovation with 53.61 GWh (7.0%) [4] Global Overview - In November, the global installed capacity of power batteries was 112.5 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.8% but a month-on-month decrease of 7.6% [5] - The top three companies in global installed capacity for November were CATL with 44.8 GWh (39.8%), BYD with 17.3 GWh (15.4%), and LG with 10.4 GWh (9.2%) [6] - From January to November, the cumulative global installed capacity of power batteries reached 1046.0 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.6% [7] - The top three companies for cumulative global installed capacity from January to November were CATL with 400.0 GWh (38.2%), BYD with 175.2 GWh (16.7%), and LG with 96.9 GWh (9.3%) [8]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing significant growth in production and demand, with notable increases in both battery and phosphoric iron lithium cathode material output in November 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [1][2]. Production - In November 2025, domestic battery production reached 176.3 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 49.66% and a month-on-month increase of 3.34% [1][2]. - The production of phosphoric iron lithium cathode materials in November 2025 was 26.89 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.43% and a month-on-month growth of 0.75%, with a capacity utilization rate of 62.53% [1][2]. Pricing - As of December 26, 2025, the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose to 116,000 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 14.85% [3]. - The price of phosphoric iron lithium (power type) reached 45,100 yuan per ton on December 26, up over 15% from December 19 [3]. - Prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate remained stable at 180,000 yuan per ton as of December 27 [3]. - The average price of square phosphoric iron lithium energy storage batteries remained stable, with slight increases in specific models [3]. Demand - In November 2025, the monthly loading volume of phosphoric iron lithium batteries was 75.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 43.62% and a month-on-month increase of 11.56%, achieving a new high for the year [4]. - The monthly loading volume of ternary power batteries was 18.2 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.82% and a month-on-month increase of 10.30% [4]. - The new bidding capacity for domestic new energy storage projects in January to October 2025 was higher than in the same period of 2024, with November slightly lower [4]. - In November 2025, China's battery exports reached 21.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 69.60% and a month-on-month increase of 9.28% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The production of domestic batteries and phosphoric iron lithium cathode materials in January to November 2025 exceeded that of 2024, with stable raw material and cell prices, and an increase in monthly loading volumes and new energy storage bidding capacities [5]. - The industry is advised to focus on core enterprises in battery cells that lead in the collaborative layout of power batteries and energy storage, as well as those related to lithium battery materials [5]. - Recommended companies include CATL (300750), EVE Energy (300014), Xinwangda (300207), Hunan Youneng (301358), Rongbai Technology (688005), Tianci Materials (002709), and Dofluor (002407) [5].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [3]. Core Insights - The demand for power and energy storage batteries is strong, with an increase in average prices for storage cells and systems [3][4]. - In November 2025, domestic battery production reached 176.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49.66% and a month-on-month increase of 3.34% [3]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials in November 2025 was 268,900 tons, up 29.43% year-on-year and 0.75% month-on-month, with a capacity utilization rate of 62.53% [3]. - The price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose to 116,000 CNY/ton as of December 26, 2025, with a weekly increase of 14.85% [3]. - The average price of LFP (power type) reached 45,100 CNY/ton, increasing over 15% since December 19, 2025 [3]. - The average price of square LFP energy storage cells remained stable, with slight increases noted in December 2025 [3]. - In November 2025, the monthly loading volume of LFP batteries was 75.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 43.62% and a month-on-month increase of 11.56% [3]. - The export volume of Chinese power batteries in November 2025 was 21.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 69.60% [3]. Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, the production of LFP cathode materials and batteries showed significant growth compared to the same period in 2024 [3][4]. Prices - Prices for key materials such as lithium carbonate and LFP have seen substantial increases, indicating a tightening supply [3][4]. Domestic Demand - The domestic demand for batteries is robust, with record loading volumes and increased tender capacities for new energy storage projects [3][4]. Overseas Demand - The export market for Chinese power batteries is expanding, with notable year-on-year growth in November 2025 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market" due to robust demand for power batteries and energy storage batteries, along with a rebound in lithium battery material prices [3]. Core Insights - The production of positive electrode materials has significantly increased, with domestic battery production reaching 176.3 GWh in November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 49.66% [3]. - Lithium carbonate prices have risen sharply, reaching 101,000 CNY per ton as of December 19, 2025, with a weekly increase of 7.44% [3]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries has surged, with a monthly loading volume of 75.3 GWh in November 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 43.62% [3]. Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, domestic battery production and lithium iron phosphate positive electrode material production were significantly higher than in the same period of 2024, with production utilization rates at 62.53% [3][4]. Prices - The price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate has increased to 101,000 CNY per ton, while lithium iron phosphate prices remained stable at 39,100 CNY per ton [3][4]. Domestic Demand - The monthly loading volume for lithium iron phosphate batteries reached a record high in November 2025, with a notable increase in new energy storage project bidding capacity compared to 2024 [3][4]. Overseas Demand - In November 2025, China's power battery exports reached 21.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 69.60%, indicating strong international demand [3][4].