Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market environment characterized by volatility and the significance of the number "4000" in relation to the Shanghai Composite Index and gold prices, highlighting the challenges faced by investors in maintaining stability in their portfolios [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Manager Insights - Zhang Ronghe, a fund manager at Guotai Fund, emphasizes the importance of understanding investor needs and constructing portfolios that provide a stable experience for holders [3][9]. - He believes that portfolio management is a structural optimization problem under multiple constraints, focusing on creating a "usable combination" within defined boundaries [5][6]. - Zhang's investment philosophy includes a strong emphasis on communication with investors, particularly through quarterly reports, to align expectations and experiences [9][62]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The article notes a significant divergence between traditional industries and technology stocks, with the latter showing strong performance while the former remains under pressure [20][26]. - Zhang observes that the market's current low volatility and high concentration in certain sectors may lead to a reversal of trends, suggesting opportunities in domestic demand as economic conditions evolve [9][28]. - He highlights the cyclical nature of investments, particularly in core assets that have been overlooked, indicating that such periods may present opportunities for finding discrepancies in expectations [27][28]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Zhang advocates for a balanced approach to asset allocation, adjusting portfolios based on market conditions and asset performance, rather than maintaining a static strategy [21][22]. - He advises investors to diversify their portfolios to mitigate systemic risks, suggesting that combining assets with negative correlations can enhance overall stability [41]. - The importance of adjusting expectations regarding returns is emphasized, encouraging investors to accept a gradual wealth-building process rather than seeking immediate high returns [40][41]. Group 4: Macro Economic Considerations - The article discusses the current macroeconomic environment, with many investors recognizing a stagflation period rather than a high-growth, low-inflation scenario [34][35]. - Zhang points out the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in balancing inflation control and unemployment rates, which could significantly impact asset prices [37]. - He notes that the current market dynamics, including the performance of AI stocks, do not align with traditional economic indicators, suggesting a complex relationship between asset performance and macroeconomic conditions [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is favorable for actively managed equity funds, with significant performance improvements observed since 2025, where nearly all ordinary stock and mixed equity funds have achieved positive returns averaging over 27% [1][2]. Group 1: Active Equity Fund Performance - Active equity funds have shown remarkable performance, with an average return of 27.91% and a median return of 24.72% for 2025 YTD, with 99% of the 1,038 funds reporting positive returns [2]. - Since 2009, active equity funds have outperformed the CSI 300 index in 10 out of 17 years, indicating a strong long-term performance trend [1]. Group 2: A-Share Market Valuation - Current A-share market valuation indicators show high cost-effectiveness, with the Wande All A-share equity risk premium at the 52.7th percentile since 2010, and the CSI 300 dividend yield compared to the 10-year government bond yield at the 94.0th percentile [3]. Group 3: Fund Manager Profile - Zhang Ronghe, the proposed fund manager, has 13 years of experience, with a strong background in macro strategy research and investment management, currently managing funds like Guotai Blue Chip Selection [4][6]. - His investment approach focuses on identifying optimal risk-return solutions within specific investment constraints, utilizing a top-down investment framework centered on macro fundamentals [6]. Group 4: Historical Performance of Fund Manager - Under Zhang Ronghe's management, the Guotai Blue Chip Selection fund has achieved a 46.40% return over the past year and over 46% since inception, with an annualized return close to 30%, significantly outperforming benchmarks [7]. - The Guotai Zhaoxiang Tianli fund, also managed by Zhang, has delivered a 10.57% return in the past year, achieving a 4.22% excess return relative to its benchmark [11]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Zhang Ronghe perceives the current market as structurally distinct from previous bull markets, with a focus on sector rotation rather than broad market rallies, indicating a need for selective investment strategies [15]. - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 is expected to improve significantly compared to 2025, with a focus on cyclical sectors and policy-driven growth opportunities [16]. Group 6: Guotai Fund's Investment Strength - Guotai Fund has demonstrated strong active equity investment capabilities, generating a total profit of 16.4 billion yuan for investors over the past six years [17]. - The firm emphasizes independent research and deep analysis to identify high-value companies, maintaining a consistent focus on investor profitability regardless of market conditions [18].