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阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK):闪购投入致利润承压 云收入继续加速
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-15 18:17
Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is expected to report a revenue growth of 2% year-on-year for Q1 FY26, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 16% [2][3] Revenue and Growth Projections - The anticipated revenue for Q1 FY26 is 247.8 billion, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, with growth rates for various segments as follows: Taotian at 9%, International Digital Commerce at 19%, Cloud Intelligence Group at 22%, Local Life at 10%, Cainiao at -5%, and Big Entertainment at 5% [2][3] - The slowdown in revenue growth is primarily attributed to the divestiture of Gaoxin Retail and Intime [3] Segment Analysis - Taotian Group is projected to achieve a GMV growth of 6% year-on-year, with a CMR increase of 11%, driven by site-wide promotions and a 0.6% contribution from technology service fees [2] - The Cloud segment is expected to accelerate with a revenue growth of 22% year-on-year, supported by increasing AI demand [2] - AIDC is forecasted to grow by 19% year-on-year, with a decrease in adjusted EBITA margin by 6%, but a significant reduction in losses [2] Profitability and Investment Impact - The adjusted EBITA for Q1 FY26 is estimated at 39.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13% and a margin decline of 3 percentage points [3][4] - Increased investment in instant retail is expected to pressure short-term profits but may enhance user engagement and purchase frequency in the long term [4] Future Revenue and Profit Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,062.3 billion, 1,149.0 billion, and 1,217.4 billion respectively, with adjustments of +1.0%, +2.2%, and +0.8% [4] - Net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been revised to 138.8 billion, 171.8 billion, and 195.4 billion respectively, with adjustments of -16.8%, -5.7%, and -2.9% [4] Valuation - The company is currently valued at a PE ratio of 13 times for FY2026, maintaining an "outperform" rating [4]
从阿里、小米到AI新城,大厂新一轮选址为何偏爱南京?
21世纪经济报道· 2025-04-12 09:30
Core Viewpoint - Nanjing Jianye High-tech Zone is rapidly developing into a modern financial and digital economy hub, attracting major tech companies and financial institutions, with a focus on artificial intelligence and data integration for future growth [2][3][10]. Group 1: Development and Growth - Jianye High-tech Zone, established in December 2017, has quickly become a vibrant area, reminiscent of Shanghai's Pudong, evolving into a key financial and digital economy center in Nanjing [2][3]. - By 2024, the digital economy industry revenue in Jianye High-tech Zone is projected to reach nearly 600 billion yuan, with over 1,800 digital economy enterprises established [2][6]. - The zone has attracted major companies like Alibaba and Xiaomi, which have set up regional headquarters, significantly boosting local economic activity [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Sector - The financial industry is a crucial pillar of Jianye High-tech Zone, contributing over 30% to the district's GDP in 2023, with more than 1,800 financial institutions present [9][10]. - The zone hosts 20 financial corporate headquarters and nearly 190 licensed financial institutions, making it a significant financial center in Eastern China [9][10]. - The Jin Yu Zui Fund Street has over 600 registered funds with a total scale exceeding 240 billion yuan, showcasing the area's strong financial ecosystem [9][10]. Group 3: Artificial Intelligence and Data Integration - Jianye High-tech Zone aims to build a "Central Innovation Zone" focusing on artificial intelligence, leveraging its existing financial and digital economy foundations [10][12]. - The "Hua Wei (Nanjing) Developer Innovation Center" has been established to promote AI and data integration, with various projects already operational [13][14]. - The zone is also developing a public data innovation ecosystem, with the Jiangsu Provincial Data Group setting up operations to lead public data development [14][15]. Group 4: Industry Ecosystem and Future Plans - The zone is working on creating a comprehensive industry ecosystem that includes data resource platforms, technology support, and application sectors, with a focus on finance, healthcare, and transportation [15][16]. - By 2027, Jianye High-tech Zone plans to drive digital economy core industry revenue to over 1 trillion yuan and attract over 100,000 new industry talents [10][12]. - The zone is exploring partnerships with financial institutions to enhance data utilization while addressing challenges related to data privacy and security [19][20].