（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月27日，中青旅在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，中青博联与阿里巴巴集团及蚂蚁集 团建立了长期稳定的合作关系，近五年来双方合作持续深化，合作已全面覆盖阿里与蚂蚁旗下各大业务 集团，包括阿里云、淘天、数字商业及蚂蚁集团及蚂蚁国际等。核心合作项目包括阿里云栖大会、阿里 云国际峰会及合作伙伴大会，淘天集团的艺人接待，以及蚂蚁集团的外滩大会等具有行业影响力的重大 活动。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [5][11] Core Insights - AI-driven growth in Alibaba Cloud is expected to continue, while e-commerce faces pressure with flash sales showing steady loss reduction. The company's large consumption strategy is progressing in a coordinated manner [4][10] - The forecast for Alibaba's revenue for FY2026-2028 is adjusted to 1,030.7 billion, 1,143.2 billion, and 1,251.8 billion CNY respectively, with adjusted net profits of 91.6 billion, 135.8 billion, and 176.1 billion CNY [4][14] - The target price is set at 207.7 HKD, based on a market capitalization of 35,656 billion CNY [4][14] Revenue and Profit Forecast - For FY2026, total revenue is projected at 1,030.7 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 3.45%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 91.6 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 13.21% year-on-year [13][15] - The revenue from Alibaba Cloud is anticipated to reach 434.9 billion CNY in FY26Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.0% [10][15] E-commerce Performance - The e-commerce segment is projected to generate 1,054.8 billion CNY in FY26Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down due to high base effects and policy impacts [10][15] - The flash sales segment is estimated to incur a loss of approximately 21.5 billion CNY in FY26Q3, with a single average loss of 3.7 CNY [10][15] Cloud Intelligence Group - The Cloud Intelligence Group is expected to accelerate further, driven by AI demand, with external revenue showing significant growth [10][15] - The report highlights Alibaba's unique position as the only full-stack AI cloud provider in China, which is expected to enhance its revenue and profit potential [10][15] Other Business Segments - The AIDC segment is projected to continue reducing losses, with an expected loss of 1.89 billion CNY in FY26Q3 due to increased investment in promotional activities [10][15] - The report emphasizes the potential for Alibaba's C-end AI applications to drive user growth and enhance the overall AI ecosystem [10][15]

Core Insights - Alibaba reported FY2026Q2 (corresponding to calendar year Q3 2025) revenue of 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, slightly exceeding market expectations, with a same-store revenue growth of 15% when excluding Gaoxin Retail and Intime [1] - Adjusted EBITA was 9.1 billion yuan, while Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.5 billion yuan, falling short of the market expectation of 13.5 billion yuan [1] E-commerce Performance - The core e-commerce segment TR led growth, with Q3 2025 revenue from the China e-commerce group increasing by 15.5% year-on-year, maintaining stable market share for Taotian GMV [2] - Customer management revenue (CMR) grew by 10% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, contributing to a 0.2 percentage point increase in TR [2] - EBITA for the quarter declined by 76% to 10.5 billion yuan due to investments in instant retail, resulting in a 31 percentage point drop in EBITA margin [2] - Excluding flash purchase impacts, adjusted EBITA for China e-commerce showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, with estimated flash purchase losses around 36 billion yuan [2] AI and Cloud Growth - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue grew by 34% year-on-year in Q3 2025, surpassing Bloomberg's expectation of 28%, with internal and external cloud revenues increasing by 34% and 29% respectively [2] - AI-related revenue maintained triple-digit year-on-year growth, with Alibaba Cloud holding the largest market share in China's AI cloud market at 35.8% as of H1 2025 [2] - Adjusted EBITA margin for Alibaba Cloud was 9%, meeting expectations, with planned capital expenditures exceeding 380 billion yuan over the next three years [2] Investment Outlook - As a leading player in e-commerce and cloud computing, Alibaba is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage driven by AI [2] - Revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2026-2028 are projected at 1,039.9 billion yuan, 1,137.3 billion yuan, and 1,262.7 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits of 110.9 billion yuan, 167.9 billion yuan, and 206.5 billion yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan for FY2026Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 5%, slightly exceeding market expectations. Excluding high-end retail and Yintai, the same-store revenue growth was 15% [7] - The core e-commerce segment showed a significant increase, with a 15.5% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025. The customer management revenue also grew by 10% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [7] - The cloud business is entering an accelerated growth phase, with a 34% year-on-year revenue increase, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast of 28%. AI-related revenue continues to grow at triple-digit rates [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1,039.89 billion yuan, 1,137.30 billion yuan, and 1,262.70 billion yuan for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024A: 941,168 million yuan - 2025A: 996,347 million yuan - 2026E: 1,039,890 million yuan - 2027E: 1,137,296 million yuan - 2028E: 1,262,700 million yuan [6] - The projected net profit for the same years is: - 2024A: 79,741 million yuan - 2025A: 129,470 million yuan - 2026E: 120,305 million yuan - 2027E: 152,779 million yuan - 2028E: 189,139 million yuan [6] - The company’s EPS is projected to be 4.10 yuan for 2024A, increasing to 9.91 yuan by 2028E [6] Market Performance - The company has shown a market performance of -6% over the last 12 months, while the Hang Seng Index has increased by 20% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shenyin Wanguo maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba, projecting a revenue of 252.8 billion yuan for Q2 FY26, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 12.8 billion yuan, down 65% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Projected revenue for Q2 FY26 is 252.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 12.8 billion yuan, which is a significant decrease of 65% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Business Operations - Healthy growth in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) for Taobao and Tmall, with an emphasis on improving monetization rates across the platform [1] - Cloud business maintains the largest market share, indicating strong competitive positioning [1] Group 3: Strategic Focus - International business is approaching breakeven, showcasing improved operational efficiency [1] - Strategic focus is on AI, cloud services, and instant retail, suggesting a long-term growth potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong performance in both of its major business lines this quarter, with AI cloud driving accelerated growth in cloud services and record-high CAPEX investments. The food delivery business has manageable losses while contributing positively to the main platform's synergy [1] Group 1: AI and Cloud Business - In FY26Q1, the company achieved cloud revenue of 334.0 billion, a year-over-year increase of 25.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 8.1 percentage points, indicating significant acceleration [2] - AI cloud revenue accounted for over 20% of external revenue, with AI revenue growing at triple digits for eight consecutive quarters, suggesting a peak in domestic AI demand [2] - The company’s capital expenditure reached 387.6 billion, a year-over-year increase of 219.8%, reflecting a strong commitment to its AI strategy [2] - The cloud EBITA margin was 8.8%, up 0.8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, indicating improved profitability despite increased CAPEX [2] Group 2: E-commerce and Food Delivery - In FY26Q1, the company reported CMR of 892.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10.1%, driven by commission adjustments and AI-driven improvements in site penetration [3] - The total loss from food delivery subsidies was estimated to be no more than 150 billion, which did not significantly impact overall group profits [3] - Monthly active users for the food delivery service exceeded 300 million, with weekly orders maintaining above 80 million, indicating a narrowing gap with competitors [3] - The food delivery business has shown a positive synergy effect on the main platform, with increased traffic and advertising revenue contributing to overall growth [3] Group 3: Strategic Focus and Future Outlook - The company is strategically focusing on the dual opportunities presented by instant retail and AI, merging various business units into a unified e-commerce group [1] - Future revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are adjusted to 10049/11256/12129 billion, with net profit estimates of 1405/1866/2091 billion [4] - The estimated market value of the company is 34,772 billion, corresponding to a target price of 200.00 HKD per share, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is expected to report a revenue growth of 2% year-on-year for Q1 FY26, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 16% [2][3] Revenue and Growth Projections - The anticipated revenue for Q1 FY26 is 247.8 billion, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, with growth rates for various segments as follows: Taotian at 9%, International Digital Commerce at 19%, Cloud Intelligence Group at 22%, Local Life at 10%, Cainiao at -5%, and Big Entertainment at 5% [2][3] - The slowdown in revenue growth is primarily attributed to the divestiture of Gaoxin Retail and Intime [3] Segment Analysis - Taotian Group is projected to achieve a GMV growth of 6% year-on-year, with a CMR increase of 11%, driven by site-wide promotions and a 0.6% contribution from technology service fees [2] - The Cloud segment is expected to accelerate with a revenue growth of 22% year-on-year, supported by increasing AI demand [2] - AIDC is forecasted to grow by 19% year-on-year, with a decrease in adjusted EBITA margin by 6%, but a significant reduction in losses [2] Profitability and Investment Impact - The adjusted EBITA for Q1 FY26 is estimated at 39.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13% and a margin decline of 3 percentage points [3][4] - Increased investment in instant retail is expected to pressure short-term profits but may enhance user engagement and purchase frequency in the long term [4] Future Revenue and Profit Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,062.3 billion, 1,149.0 billion, and 1,217.4 billion respectively, with adjustments of +1.0%, +2.2%, and +0.8% [4] - Net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been revised to 138.8 billion, 171.8 billion, and 195.4 billion respectively, with adjustments of -16.8%, -5.7%, and -2.9% [4] Valuation - The company is currently valued at a PE ratio of 13 times for FY2026, maintaining an "outperform" rating [4]

Core Views - The past year has been a pivotal one for Alibaba, marked by significant reforms led by executives Cai Chongxin and Wu Yongming, focusing on strategic clarity and business focus [2][3] - Alibaba's 2025 fiscal year was characterized by solid progress under the "user-first, AI-driven" strategy, with notable growth in core businesses [3][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - Alibaba reported a total revenue of 996.347 billion RMB for the fiscal year, with a net profit increase of 77% to 125.976 billion RMB, marking a four-year high [4] - E-commerce revenue grew by 3%, CMR increased by 6%, and international e-commerce revenue surged by 29% [4] - Cloud revenue achieved double-digit growth, leading the AI technology wave since the beginning of the year [4] Group 2: Strategic Focus - The company is concentrating on two core businesses: e-commerce and "AI + Cloud," which are seen as the engines for long-term growth [4][7] - Alibaba's mission remains unchanged: to make it easier for businesses to operate, with an updated emphasis on AI to support small enterprises [5][6] Group 3: Market Position - Alibaba is the world's largest e-commerce platform with an annual GMV of approximately 8 trillion RMB, while Amazon ranks second with around 500 billion USD (approximately 5 trillion RMB) [13] - In cloud services, Alibaba ranks fourth globally and first in the Asia-Pacific region, following Amazon, Microsoft, and Google [13] Group 4: Investment and Growth - The company plans to invest over 380 billion RMB in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years, with a capital expenditure of 86 billion RMB in the past year, a 168% increase year-on-year [20] - As of March 2025, Alibaba had signed but unrecognized capital expenditures amounting to 45.3 billion RMB, a 146% increase [20] Group 5: Organizational Changes - The partner team has been reduced to 17 members, focusing on a more streamlined and effective leadership structure [22][23] - The total number of full-time employees decreased significantly to 124,320 by March 2025, following the divestment of non-core businesses [25] Group 6: Shareholder Returns - Alibaba's cash reserves stood at 374.3 billion RMB, with a net cash position of 143.6 billion RMB after accounting for interest-bearing liabilities [27] - The company returned 117 billion RMB to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, reducing the total share count by 5.1% [27]

Core Insights - Alibaba Group reported a positive transformation in its fiscal year 2025, focusing on a "user-first, AI-driven" strategy that accelerated core business growth [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 996.347 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 77% year-on-year to 125.976 billion yuan [1] - Strong growth in new buyers on Taobao and Tmall contributed to a 29% year-on-year revenue increase for Alibaba's International Digital Commerce Group [1] - Driven by robust AI demand, Alibaba Cloud's fiscal year revenue experienced double-digit growth, with AI-related product revenue growing three-digit for seven consecutive quarters, establishing "AI + Cloud" as a new growth engine [1]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group is strategically upgrading from an e-commerce platform to a large consumer platform by merging Ele.me and Fliggy into Alibaba's China E-commerce Business Group, while maintaining their independent management structures [1] Group 1 - The merger of Ele.me and Fliggy is aimed at leveraging their respective strengths and resources accumulated over the years in their fields [1] - The unified operation under the China E-commerce Business Group is expected to create a more comprehensive large consumer service system [1]