证券研究报告 公用环保 印尼开标，中企垃圾焚烧发电出海提速 垃圾焚烧发电出海系列报告（二） 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 05 日│中国内地 动态点评 印尼、中亚多点开花，中国垃圾焚烧发电企业出海加速启航 工业化和城市化发展往往伴随着环境问题，我们认为东南亚（不含新加坡， 全文同，后文不再单独说明）和中亚地区垃圾焚烧产业有望迎来高速发展， 中国企业有望充分受益于海外市场大发展，我们测算 2030 年东南亚和中亚 垃圾焚烧投资/运营空间 1829/257 亿元 vs 中国 2025 年 196/714 亿元，出 海带来的增量空间广阔。4Q25 以来，中国企业在印尼、中亚两大区域的垃 圾焚烧发电出海项目迎来密集落地与中标，行业兑现度明显提升。我们测算 印尼/中亚垃圾焚烧发电项目全投资 IRR 达 9.5/7.4%，较中国典型项目增厚 3.7/1.6pct，看好中国垃圾焚烧发电企业通过出海助力盈利能力提升。 印尼：新政落地商业模式进一步完善，首批项目伟明、旺能先下两城 2018 年以来印尼出台多项政策推动垃圾焚烧发电项目落地，但施行效果不 佳。我们认为 2025 年出台的第 109 号总统令从顶层设计上规范了项目 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·环境治理 伟明环保（603568） 中标印尼巴厘岛 1500 吨/日垃圾焚烧项目， 固废出海启航 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,025 | 7,171 | 9,765 | 13,482 | 17,292 | | 同比（%） | 34.66 | 19.03 | 36.17 | 38.07 | 28.26 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,048 | 2,704 | 3,003 | 3,574 | 4,029 | | 同比（%） | 23.09 | 31.99 | 11.06 | 19.02 | 12.73 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.20 | 1.58 | 1.76 | 2.09 | 2.36 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 23.05 | 17.46 | 15.72 | 13.21 | 11.72 | [Table_Tag] [投资要点 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·环境治理 伟明环保（603568） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 事件：2026 年 3 月 2 日，公司公告收到印度尼西亚主权投资基金发来 的中标通知书，确认公司作为牵头人组成的联合体中标巴厘岛项目。 中标印尼巴厘岛 1500 吨/日垃圾焚烧项目， 固废出海启航 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,025 | 7,171 | 9,765 | 13,482 | 17,292 | | 同比（%） | 34.66 | 19.03 | 36.17 | 38.07 | 28.26 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,048 | 2,704 | 3,003 | 3,574 | 4,029 | | 同比（%） | 23.09 | 31.99 | 11.06 | 19.02 | 12.73 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.20 | ...

Summary of Weiming Environmental Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Weiming Environmental - **Industry**: Waste-to-energy and new materials Key Points Expansion into Indonesian Waste-to-Energy Market - Weiming Environmental is actively expanding into the Indonesian waste incineration market, benefiting from a presidential decree that clarifies the business model, including investments from the national sovereign fund, acquisition of electricity by power companies, and local government guarantees for waste supply, ensuring project scale effects and reducing payment risks [2][5] - The electricity price is locked at $0.2 per kWh for a 30-year period, with no waste disposal fees, leading to stable cash flow [2][5] - The first batch of waste incineration projects in Indonesia has an investment of approximately 1-1.4 billion RMB, higher than domestic projects, with the sovereign fund holding 30%-51% [2][6] - The projects are expected to start in Q1 2026, with bid results anticipated by the end of January or early February [2][6] Profitability and Market Potential - Indonesia's waste-to-energy potential is significant, with electricity generation per ton and grid electricity both exceeding levels in China, generating revenue of approximately 612-758 RMB per ton, far surpassing China's 170-280 RMB [2][8] - The market size is substantial, with annual operating revenue potentially reaching 30-40 billion RMB [2][8] - In 2023, Indonesia's waste generation is estimated at 56.63 million tons, with less than 40% managed through landfilling, highlighting the urgent need for waste incineration [7][8] New Materials Business Development - Weiming Environmental has initiated a new materials business, currently operating a 20,000-ton high-nickel production capacity, with plans to add another 20,000 tons in H1 2026 [2][9] - The company is collaborating with Bangpu to supply 24,000 to 48,000 tons of ternary precursor materials annually [2][9] Nickel Price and Profitability - The profitability of Weiming's high-nickel business is linked to nickel prices, with a current LME price of $18,000 per ton leading to a profit of approximately $2,760 per ton after costs [4][10] - Nickel prices have recently increased due to the Indonesian government's tightening of quotas, benefiting Weiming's smelting operations [4][11] - The company’s domestic waste incineration business has a stable capacity of 37,300 tons per day, contributing over 1.7 billion RMB in annual operating net profit [4][12] Financial Health and Valuation - Weiming Environmental has an overall debt-to-asset ratio of approximately 45%, indicating strong risk control capabilities [4][13] - The company's PE ratio is below 14 times based on 2026 earnings, suggesting it is undervalued, especially with upcoming contributions from new projects [4][14] Conclusion - Weiming Environmental is positioned for growth in both the Indonesian waste-to-energy market and its new materials business, with strong financial health and favorable market conditions supporting its expansion and profitability prospects [3][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The environmental protection industry, particularly in waste incineration, is poised for significant growth, especially in overseas markets such as Southeast Asia and Central Asia, driven by high processing fees and electricity prices [5][10] - The investment potential in the ASEAN countries and India for waste incineration is estimated at approximately 250 billion RMB, with a daily waste incineration capacity increase of about 500,000 tons [5][11] - The profitability of overseas projects, particularly in Indonesia, is enhanced by favorable policies and high revenue from electricity sales, with projected single-ton income significantly higher than domestic projects [19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Waste Incineration Growth and Overseas Market Potential - The ASEAN countries and India are expected to generate a daily waste production of 1.46 million tons by 2024, with a potential waste incineration market space of 248.5 billion RMB if the incineration penetration rate reaches 50% [5][11] - Several domestic waste incineration companies, such as Kangheng Environment and China Tianying, are expanding their operations in Southeast Asia and Central Asia, with significant project footprints established [15][16] 2. Indonesian Policy Driving Business Model Optimization - Indonesia's recent policy changes have shifted the revenue model from local government subsidies to direct agreements with the national electricity company, significantly increasing the electricity price to 0.20 USD per kWh [24][25] - The government plans to construct 33 waste incineration plants nationwide, with a total investment of approximately 5.6 billion USD, indicating a strong commitment to developing the waste-to-energy sector [24][25] 3. Economic Assessment of Indonesian Waste Incineration Projects - Economic assessments show that the single-ton income from Indonesian projects can reach 582 RMB, significantly higher than domestic projects, driven by high processing fees and electricity prices [19][20][31] - The report highlights the sensitivity of project profitability to cost management, with potential increases in return on equity (ROE) if investment and operational costs are optimized [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Junxin Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. (Junxin Co., 301109.SZ) is expanding its waste treatment and green energy business, successfully implementing projects both domestically and internationally, including a significant partnership in Kyrgyzstan for waste-to-energy initiatives [3][5][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Junxin Co. specializes in converting waste into energy, focusing on municipal solid waste, kitchen waste, municipal sludge, leachate, and fly ash [3]. - The company operates the Heimi Peak Solid Waste Treatment Plant in Changsha, which is the only environmental park in China to have won two Luban Awards, the highest construction engineering award in the country [3]. Group 2: International Expansion - During the first China-Central Asia Summit, Junxin Co. signed a memorandum with Kyrgyzstan to introduce successful waste treatment experiences from Changsha, aiming to establish the country's first waste incineration power generation project [5]. - The company’s strategy is to "root in Hunan, radiate nationwide, and move towards the world" [5]. Group 3: Financial Support and Challenges - The company faces challenges in its international projects, including language barriers, funding shortages, and legal constraints between countries [5]. - China Merchants Bank (CMB) formed a project team to support Junxin Co. in overcoming these challenges, leading to the creation of an innovative cross-border loan solution [6]. Group 4: Project Development - CMB successfully provided Junxin Co. with a cross-border syndicated loan of $6.42375 million, which facilitated the construction of the Bishkek waste-to-energy project in Kyrgyzstan [6]. - The project is set to be completed by December 27, 2025, marking a significant milestone as the first waste incineration power project in Central Asia [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The story of Junxin Co.'s international expansion reflects the growing trend of green finance and the potential for further overseas ventures by Chinese enterprises [7].

Group 1 - The garbage incineration power generation project in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, has been completed and inaugurated, with over 200 participants from China and Kyrgyzstan attending the event [2] - The project aims to address waste management issues, promote electricity production, create job opportunities, improve the ecological environment of Bishkek, and contribute to ensuring electricity supply for residents [4] - The project is invested and operated by Hunan Junxin Environmental Protection Co., Ltd., which is committed to ensuring safe, stable, and environmentally friendly operations while fulfilling social responsibilities [6] Group 2 - The project started in August 2024, with a planned waste processing capacity of 3,000 tons per day, while the current capacity is 1,000 tons per day [6] - The annual electricity generation from the project is approximately 146 million kilowatt-hours, with an expected annual carbon reduction of 100,000 tons [6]

Group 1 - The company held an analyst meeting on December 23, 2025, to discuss its operational status and business development with analysts from Dongfang Caifu [1] - Key topics of interest included the company's dividend policy, overseas business progress, performance changes in the first three quarters, and project integration [2] - The company emphasized its commitment to shareholder returns and market value management, having completed the 2024 equity distribution and the 2025 semi-annual distribution [2] Group 2 - The company acknowledged the opportunities and risks in overseas markets and is actively exploring market expansion while prioritizing risk management [2] - The significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters was attributed to effective market response, cost reduction, and enhanced operational efficiency [2] - Regarding project integration, the company is preparing for the injection of waste-to-energy projects from its controlling shareholder, with commitments made to resolve competition issues within five years post-restructuring [3]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese waste incineration power generation companies are increasingly expanding into Southeast Asia to find waste, driven by the growing demand for modern and environmentally friendly waste disposal methods in the region [1] Industry Overview - The waste incineration power generation industry in China is substantial, with over 1,000 incineration plants and a daily processing capacity exceeding 1.1 million tons [1] - Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia, which have traditionally relied on landfills, are showing a rising demand for waste incineration as a more modern and environmentally friendly waste management solution [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector [4]. Core Insights - The environmental sector has shown resilience, with a 0.3% increase in the sector's performance, outperforming the broader market [4][11]. - The report highlights the ongoing expansion of waste-to-energy companies in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, where waste management issues are significant [5][19][25]. - The Vietnamese government aims to increase waste recycling and processing, with a target of 95% by 2030, while currently, only 10% of waste is incinerated [21][22]. - Thailand's waste management is heavily reliant on landfills, with over 70% of waste sent to landfills, and the government plans to increase waste-to-energy capacity significantly by 2037 [25][26]. - Indonesia faces severe waste management challenges, with only 9-10% of waste processed properly, prompting government initiatives to expedite waste-to-energy project approvals [27][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of December 19, the environmental sector rose by 0.3%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which remained flat [4][11]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the release of the 2025 energy-saving and carbon reduction technology equipment directory, which includes over 350 technologies aimed at improving energy efficiency [32]. - The report notes the government's push for clean and efficient coal utilization, indicating a shift towards higher value products in the coal industry [33]. Waste-to-Energy Market in Southeast Asia - Vietnam generates significant waste, with 63% currently landfilled and only 10% incinerated. The government has set ambitious waste management goals [19][21]. - Thailand's waste generation is increasing rapidly, with a focus on enhancing waste-to-energy capacity as part of its renewable energy development plan [25][26]. - Indonesia's government is actively working to improve waste management, with plans to streamline project approvals for waste-to-energy facilities [27][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the environmental sector, particularly waste management and recycling, is expected to maintain high growth due to government policies and market reforms. Key companies to watch include Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [5][51].