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刘世锦:扩消费稳增长要重视源头治理
和讯· 2025-05-02 08:01
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant structural deviation in China's consumption, which is approximately 20 percentage points lower than the global average, indicating a pressing need for reforms to boost consumption and improve living standards [3][4][10]. Group 1: Causes of Consumption Insufficiency - China's household consumption, final consumption, and service consumption as a percentage of GDP are significantly lower compared to OECD countries, with a gap of 25% to 33% [3][4]. - The low level of basic public services and the large urban-rural gap are major contributors to this structural deviation, affecting the growth of service consumption [4][5]. - Urbanization levels in China are lagging, with a current urbanization rate of about 67%, compared to 70%-80% in OECD countries at a similar development stage [5][6]. - The significant income disparity, with a Gini coefficient above 0.45, limits the consumption capacity of lower-income groups, while the middle-income group is not large enough to drive demand [6][7]. - The characteristics of the government’s balance sheet, with a high proportion of government wealth compared to total societal wealth, contribute to high savings rates and low consumption [6][8]. Group 2: Solutions to Consumption Insufficiency - Addressing consumption insufficiency requires a focus on service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, housing, social security, and pensions [7][9]. - The structural issues stemming from the urban-rural divide must be addressed through reforms aimed at equal rights and urban-rural integration [7][9]. - The decline in real estate and infrastructure investment has exposed the underlying structural consumption issues, necessitating urgent action to boost terminal demand [8][9]. Group 3: Specific Recommendations for Pension Reform - The government should prioritize pension reforms for rural residents, as they represent a significant portion of the low-income population with high consumption potential [11][12]. - Allocating a portion of stimulus funds to increase pension payouts could significantly enhance the consumption capacity of rural residents [12][13]. - Improving the pension contribution system, especially for migrant workers, is essential to increase their future consumption capabilities [15][16].