前有摩尔线程，今有沐曦股份，"国产GPU概念新股"的热度依然爆棚。 截至收盘，沐曦股份上涨692.95%，股价报829.9元，居A股第三。按盘中最高价895元计算，理论上一签最高盈利达到39.5万元， 成为A股全面注册制以来最赚钱新股。 但显然，今天盘面上更重要的，是午后指数强势修复。 以万得全A为例，昨日整体下跌1.45%后，今天涨幅为1.54%，也就是隔日反包。 12月17日，市场集体反弹，沪指涨超1%，创业板指涨超3%。截至收盘，沪指涨1.19%，深成指涨2.4%，创业板指涨3.39%。 板块方面，能源金属、算力硬件、电池、保险等板块涨幅居前，海南、军工等板块跌幅居前。 全市场超3600只个股上涨。沪深两市成交额1.81万亿元，较上一个交易日放量870亿。 企稳回升，是一等一的好事。起起伏伏中，12月行情也将进入下半场，随后迎来新年新气象。 如粤开证券研报所说，本轮A股牛市是在科技突破、产业驱动、制度改革、资金流入和风险偏好共同推动下形成的"科技重估 牛"。 其认为，四季度的阶段调整亦属正常，是为下一轮上涨蓄力，预计2026年一季度A股有望重回上行通道。2026年，支撑A股牛市 的核心逻辑依然稳固，同时 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 12 月 17 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：原野 执业编号：S0300523070001 电话：15810120201 邮箱：yuanye_zb@ykzq.com 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】明年经济工作怎么干？—— 中央经济工作会议学习体会》2025-12-11 《【粤开宏观】展望 2026：美联储降息之 路的图景与影响》2025-12-11 《【粤开宏观】政治局会议释放的七大信 号》2025-12-08 《【粤开宏观】前瞻 2026：对中国经济和 宏观调控的思考与建议》2025-12-01 《【粤开宏观】反内卷对经济有何影响？有 何政策启示？》2025-11-23 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】2026 年中国资本市场展 望：A 股怎么看？怎么配？ 导读： 2025 年，A 股走过一段壮阔历程，一个更加成熟、更有韧性、更具活力的资 本市场逐步成型。A 股 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated resilience with two "above expectations" and two "below expectations" characteristics, showing a "front high and back low" trend throughout the year[1] - The GDP growth for 2025 is projected to be around 5%, with a nominal GDP growth target of 5% as well, indicating a need for price recovery embedded in growth targets[2] Key Economic Drivers - The main economic lines for 2026 will focus on real estate and local government debt, with exports and central government-supported infrastructure investment serving as primary support forces[2] - In 2025, China's exports grew by 5.3% year-on-year, supported by diversified market layouts and upgraded export structures[8] Challenges and Risks - The real estate market's recovery in 2025 was slower than expected, with real estate investment declining by 14.7% year-on-year from January to October, exceeding the previous year's decline of 10.6%[10] - Internal challenges include low consumer spending and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, which may prolong the recovery process[28] Policy Recommendations - Fiscal policy should be proactive, with a recommendation for a fiscal deficit rate of no less than 4% in 2026 to counteract the negative effects of real estate downturns and local government debt[33] - Monetary policy should leverage the opportunity presented by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to further lower domestic interest rates and stimulate economic recovery[34] Consumer and Investment Outlook - Consumer spending is expected to gradually recover, supported by subsidy policies in childcare and pensions, alongside a potential increase in service consumption[24] - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 1.8% in 2026, with real estate investment expected to decrease by 15.2%[26]

Group 1: Causes of the Bull Market - The current A-share bull market is driven by profound global capital reallocation and breakthroughs in Chinese technology innovation, termed as the "technology revaluation bull" [2] - Changes in macroeconomic policy since the September 26 meeting last year and significant advancements in artificial intelligence have boosted investor risk appetite and market expectations [4] - Continuous improvement in capital market systems and the influx of quality companies have enhanced market attractiveness [6] Group 2: Market Outlook - The bull market is expected to continue, with short-term corrections providing buying opportunities [3] - The foundation for the bull market remains solid, supported by China's transition from "catching up" to "leading" in various tech sectors [8] - Domestic long-term capital continues to flow into the market, with overseas capital seeking to allocate assets in China amid global changes [9]