粤开证券首席经济学家 罗志恒 一 关于经济增长及增速：三个"好于预期" 南都·湾财社：2025年，中国经济总量首次突破140万亿元大关，全年经济增长5%，连续三年保持5%及 以上的经济增速。请问如何看待140万亿和5%这两个数字？ 罗志恒： 2026年，是国家"十五五"规划的开局之年，这一新五年规划系统性勾勒出中国至2030年的发展蓝图。新 旧动能转换、发展范式升级、全球格局重塑，都将在这一时期找到新的交汇点。 理解"十五五"的顶层设计，是预见未来经济脉动与市场机遇的起点。时代的机遇藏在哪里？未来中国经 济增长的核心动力如何精准判断？值此开年之际，南都湾财社发起《开局2026：在新周期起点上》专题 策划。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒在接受南都·湾财社记者专访时表示，"居民增收"和"投资于人"将是扩大 内需、增强经济内生动能的重要抓手，应加快实施城乡居民增收计划，建议研究探索中央财政出资，对 主动为职工涨薪的企业给予适当补贴；加大国资收益上缴财政的力度，专项用于提高城乡居民养老金待 遇至农村低保水平（约600元/月）。 2025年中国经济呈现出三个"好于预期"，体现在中国出口的强劲韧性、资本市场的显著走强以及经 ...

Group 1: Corporate Developments - Warren Buffett officially retired as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway on December 31, 2025, at the age of 95, but will continue as chairman of the board and retain a significant stake in the company [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Trends - The National Development and Reform Commission of China is addressing issues related to the "old-for-new" consumption policy, focusing on five typical problems, and will implement three major measures to optimize the 2026 policy [8]. - The U.S. stock market indices recorded double-digit gains for three consecutive years, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing nearly 13% in 2025, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose over 20% and 16% respectively [9]. - The dollar index fell by 9.6% in 2025, marking its worst annual performance since 2017, primarily due to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, trade protection policies, and concerns over U.S. debt and fiscal deficits [10]. - The North Exchange's 50 Index rose approximately 38.80% in 2025, with daily trading volume exceeding 32.9 billion yuan, doubling from 2024 [11]. - The Federal Reserve's internal policy disagreements intensified, with a recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points facing the highest dissent since 2019, indicating ongoing debates about inflation and employment risks [12]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Two ordinary investors in Hangzhou achieved significant returns in 2025, with one investing 600,000 yuan in gold, benefiting from a price increase of over 70%, and another investing 200,000 yuan in a silver fund, realizing over 85% gains [13].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices have experienced a significant increase, reaching a historical high of $4,525.83 per ounce by December 24, 2025, marking an annual increase of over 70% [5][7] - Silver also saw substantial growth, with prices surpassing $72.7 per ounce, resulting in an annual increase of nearly 150% [7][8] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to factors such as U.S. tariff disruptions, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions [7] Group 2: Technology Sector - The technology sector is undergoing a "revaluation bull market," driven by innovations in AI, computing power, and robotics, with significant stock price increases observed [10][12] - A notable surge in A-share technology stocks occurred, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high and the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeding 100 trillion yuan [11][12] - Over 90% of new stocks in 2025 were in the high-tech sector, indicating a strong correlation between capital markets and industrial upgrades [12]

Group 1: Precious Metals Investment - In 2025, gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with gold rising from $2,620 per ounce to a peak of $4,525.83 per ounce, marking an annual increase of over 70% [4][6] - The surge in gold prices was driven by factors such as U.S. tariff disruptions, global central bank purchases, and geopolitical tensions, particularly accelerating in the second half of the year [6][7] - Silver also experienced significant growth, with prices reaching $83.971 per ounce by December 29, 2025, resulting in an annual increase of nearly 150% [6][7] Group 2: Technology Sector Investment - The technology sector saw a "revaluation bull market," with significant investments in AI and related technologies, leading to substantial gains for investors [8][11] - The A-share market experienced a surge, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high and surpassing 100 trillion yuan in total market capitalization [10][11] - Over 90% of new stocks in 2025 were in the high-tech sector, indicating a strong correlation between capital markets and industrial upgrades [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, breaking the 7.0 mark and reaching a 15-month high, is attributed to both external factors, such as the weakening of the US dollar, and internal economic resilience in China [1][3]. Group 1: External Factors - The US dollar has weakened significantly, with the dollar index dropping from 110 to 98, a nearly 10% decline within the year, which has contributed to the yuan's rise [3][5]. - The Federal Reserve's actions, including three interest rate cuts and monthly purchases of $40 billion in US Treasury bonds, have diminished the attractiveness of dollar assets, prompting global capital to seek alternatives [5]. Group 2: Internal Factors - China's economic resilience is highlighted by a turnaround in export growth and a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in the first eleven months, which has bolstered foreign exchange inflows [7]. - The influx of foreign capital into Chinese assets has surged, with overseas holdings of yuan-denominated assets surpassing 10 trillion, providing substantial support for the yuan's appreciation [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts are divided on whether the yuan can consistently enter the "6" range, with some predicting a rise to 6.2-6.3, while others caution against expecting a one-sided trend, emphasizing the importance of maintaining exchange rate stability [11]. - The yuan's trajectory in 2026 will be influenced by key variables such as the economic disparity between China and the US, the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the attractiveness of yuan assets, and Sino-US trade relations [13].

Group 1: Precious Metals Investment - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with a significant increase from $2,620 per ounce at the beginning of the year to $4,525.83 per ounce by December 24, marking an annual increase of over 70% [11][12] - Silver also saw substantial gains, with prices rising from around $20 to a peak of $83.971 per ounce, resulting in an annual increase of nearly 150% [12] - The investment in precious metals has been driven by factors such as U.S. tariff disturbances, global central bank purchases, and geopolitical tensions [11] Group 2: Technology Sector Investment - The technology sector has experienced a "revaluation bull market," with significant interest in AI and related technologies, leading to substantial gains in stocks related to computing power and robotics [13][14] - The A-share market saw the total market capitalization exceed 100 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs throughout the year [15] - Over 90% of new stocks in the market were in the high-tech sector, indicating a strong correlation between capital markets and industrial upgrades [15]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has finally surpassed the 4000-point mark, marking a significant milestone after a decade, with a market driven by technology and a "slow bull" trend reshaping the Chinese capital market [1][3] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has historically exceeded 100 trillion yuan, indicating a robust recovery and potential for further growth [3] Historical Breakthrough - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly stayed above 4000 points ten years ago before entering a prolonged adjustment period, with the 2015 peak of 5178 points remaining a significant psychological barrier for investors [3] - In 2025, the A-share market has entered a new bull market, breaking through long-standing technical resistance levels, suggesting a departure from previous downward pressures [3] Trading Volume Records - The A-share market has achieved remarkable trading volume records in 2025, with total annual trading volume exceeding 400 trillion yuan, a significant increase from 255.8 trillion yuan in 2024 [5] - On August 25, 2025, the trading volume reached 3.14 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest level in history, reflecting strong market liquidity and activity [5] Three Pillars of the Current Bull Market - The current bull market, termed the "technology revaluation bull," is driven by technological breakthroughs, policy reforms, and increased capital inflows [7][8] - Key sectors such as artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing are leading the market, supported by government policies aimed at protecting small investors and fostering market health [8] New Market Norms - The number of listed companies in the A-share market has nearly doubled from 2827 to 5448, with total market capitalization growing from 58.4 trillion yuan to 122.23 trillion yuan, indicating enhanced market breadth and depth [10] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 is approximately 14 times, still below historical averages, suggesting potential for further upward movement in the index [10] Outlook for a Slow Bull Market - Looking ahead to 2026, the A-share market is positioned for a long-term "slow bull" trend, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies, industry transformations, and continuous capital inflows [12] - The market's foundation appears more solid compared to 2015, with reduced volatility and increased investor willingness to hold stocks for the long term, indicating a healthier investment environment [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a new bull market in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, marking a ten-year high, and total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan, indicating a more resilient and active capital market [2][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a significant increase, reaching a year-to-date rise of 17.6%, while the Shenzhen Component Index surged by 29.5%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 50.8% [13]. - The total trading volume of the A-share market exceeded 400 trillion yuan in 2025, compared to 255.8 trillion yuan in 2024, showcasing robust market activity [14]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The bull market is driven by technological breakthroughs, industrial dynamics, institutional reforms, capital inflows, and an increase in risk appetite, characterized as a "technology revaluation bull" [2][11]. - The introduction of the DeepSeek open-source inference model in January 2025 sparked enthusiasm in the domestic AI sector, leading to a shift in market narratives towards "hard technology" [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express optimism for 2026, predicting a potential transition from a structural bull market to a broader market rally, with the possibility of the Shanghai Composite Index expanding by 10% to 20% if corporate earnings improve [2][11]. - The market is expected to experience a "slow bull" trend, supported by macroeconomic policies, ongoing industrial transformation, and continuous capital inflows [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a new bull market in 2025, driven by technological breakthroughs, industry dynamics, institutional reforms, capital inflows, and improved risk appetite, marking it as a "technology revaluation bull" [2] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 4000 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high, with a total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan [2] - By December 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index had increased by 17.6% for the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 29.5%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 50.8% [4] Key Drivers of the Bull Market - The bull market is supported by three main factors: continuous policy support for the capital market, accelerated transfer of household savings to the capital market, and the diminishing role of real estate as a wealth reservoir [5] - The emergence of DeepSeek's open-source inference model has significantly boosted the domestic AI sector, igniting market enthusiasm and leading to a shift from narrative-driven to industry-driven market dynamics [3][4] Future Outlook - Analysts express optimism for 2026, predicting a potential transition from a structural bull market to a broader market rally, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index's current P/E ratio around 14 times, still below historical averages [2][7] - The market is expected to experience a "slow bull" trend, supported by stable macroeconomic policies, ongoing industrial transformation, and continuous capital inflows [8][9] Historical Context - The A-share market's total trading volume exceeded 400 trillion yuan in 2025, compared to 255.8 trillion yuan in 2024, indicating robust market activity [5] - The market's performance reflects a significant shift in China's economic structure, with a growing emphasis on high-value service industries and technology sectors [6]

Market Overview - The market experienced a collective rebound on December 17, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 3.39% [2] - Over 3,600 stocks in the market saw an increase, with total trading volume reaching 1.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 87 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - Sectors such as energy metals, computing hardware, batteries, and insurance showed significant gains, while sectors like Hainan and military industries faced declines [2] New Stock Performance - Domestic GPU concept stocks, particularly Muxi Co., Ltd., saw a remarkable increase of 692.95%, closing at 829.9 yuan, making it one of the most profitable new stocks since the full registration system was implemented in A-shares [3] ETF Activity - Several broad-based ETFs experienced significant trading volume in the afternoon, with the CSI 300 ETF trading over 900 million yuan in the last half hour [9] - The performance of various ETFs included the A500 ETF rising by 1.90%, the CSI 300 ETF increasing by 1.71%, and the ChiNext ETF gaining 3.40% [10] Institutional Investment Trends - Large financial institutions showed signs of increased activity, particularly in insurance and brokerage sectors, which were influenced by recent policy changes and market conditions [7][9] - Analysts suggest that the recent adjustments in stock indices and the anticipated return of institutional funds could improve market liquidity and trading activity [13] Computing Power Sector - The computing power industry saw a significant rise, with the CPO sector increasing by 6.59%, driven by the growing demand for data center technologies [14] - TrendForce forecasts that the global shipment of optical transceiver modules exceeding 800G will reach 24 million units by 2025, with a projected increase to nearly 63 million units by 2026, representing a growth of 2.6 times [14]