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消费建材行业研究框架培训
2025-08-12 15:05
Summary of the Consumer Building Materials Industry Research Industry Overview - The consumer building materials industry experienced a peak in 2021 followed by a correction, but is expected to grow over the next decade due to increasing demand for renovation of existing homes, with the renovation ratio rising to 50% [1][6] - Real estate policies directly impact the demand for consumer building materials by affecting sales, new starts, and completions. A decline of 10% in new home sales, completions, and new starts is anticipated by 2025, with new starts potentially declining even more significantly [1][5] Key Growth Drivers - Renovation of existing homes is becoming a crucial growth point for consumer building materials, with a significant amount of existing residential space available for renovation. The next 5-10 years are expected to be a golden period for residential renovations [1][6] - The demand for building materials is primarily divided into residential and public renovations, with residential demand accounting for 50%-60% of the total. The proportion of old home renovations has increased from 20%-30% to 50% and is expected to rise further [1][7] Market Dynamics - The renovation market is significantly influenced by categories such as exterior wall coatings, waterproofing, insulation materials, and pipeline construction, with an expected renovation ratio of 30% in the commercial market for these categories [1][10] - The consumer building materials sector differs from traditional materials like cement and glass, exhibiting cyclical growth characteristics. The market share of consumer building materials has been steadily increasing over the past decade, with a notable rise in the CR3 (top three companies' market share) compared to ten years ago [2][4] Competitive Landscape - Companies such as Sanke Tree, Henkel Group, Rabbit Baby, Weixing, and Beixin have shown strong competitiveness during the industry's downturn, with retail business share increases contributing to overall gross margin improvements [4][20] - Recommended leading companies based on high renovation share include Beixin in gypsum board, Sanke Tree in coatings, Arrow Home in sanitary ware, Rabbit Baby in boards, and Henkel Group in hardware [11] Future Trends - The public renovation market holds significant potential, particularly with urban renewal projects supported by special bonds. The area of old community renovations has reached 1 billion square meters and continues to grow [9] - The consumer building materials industry is expected to recover to previous high levels as the renovation ratio increases, driven by the existing stock of residential properties [8] Financial Outlook - The industry is currently facing challenges, with many companies experiencing historical low profitability. However, companies with high provisions, such as Yuhong, Keshun, and Sanke Tree, may show greater performance elasticity in the future [21] - Mid-term profit forecasts suggest that the coatings market could grow from 100 billion to 130-140 billion, with companies like Yuhong and Sanke Tree expected to see significant profit increases [22] Investment Considerations - The supply exit in the consumer building materials industry is closely related to the cycle, with a 25%-30% decline in demand compared to peak periods, leading to a market contraction of 30%-40% [19] - Despite the overall industry shrinkage, certain companies have demonstrated resilience and strong competitive advantages, highlighting the importance of scale economies and brand strength [20][23] Conclusion - The consumer building materials industry is poised for growth driven by renovation demand and structural changes in the market. Companies that adapt to these changes and leverage their competitive advantages are likely to succeed in the evolving landscape [17][24]
城市更新全景分析:公共领域的建材翻新
Changjiang Securities· 2025-04-19 15:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the building materials industry [14] Core Insights - The building materials sector has entered a stock era, with increasing demand for renovation driven by urban renewal, which focuses on public domain renovations alongside home decoration [4][20] - Since the central government's deployment of urban renewal in 2019, the demand for urban renewal has steadily increased, with certain categories like exterior wall coatings and waterproofing seeing their share rise to approximately 30% [4][9] Summary by Sections Urban Renewal Overview - Urban renewal is a necessary redevelopment process for cities at a certain stage of development, focusing on the integration and renovation of outdated residential areas, old commercial zones, and villages within cities to meet modern needs [8][20] - The current trend in urban renewal is shifting from extensive demolition to comprehensive remediation, leading to larger scales of renovation and more refined demand for building materials [8][20] Demand Analysis - In 2024, the total demand area is estimated at approximately 4.55 billion square meters, with old residential area renovations accounting for about 1.11 billion square meters and village renovations about 0.14 billion square meters, making urban renewal's share of the total area around 28% [9][44] - By 2025, under a neutral assumption, the area for old residential renovations is projected to be 1.16 billion square meters, with urban renewal's share potentially reaching 32% [9][44] Old Residential Area Renovation - The renovation of old residential areas has exceeded initial targets, with nearly 280,000 projects completed from 2019 to 2024, benefiting approximately 120 million residents [10][42] - The primary building materials involved in these renovations include exterior wall coatings, waterproofing, and insulation [10][44] Village Renovation - The scope of village renovations is expanding, with 1,863 projects implemented in 2024, benefiting 1.367 million households [11] - The government plans to continue expanding the scale of renovations, with an additional 1 million units expected to be implemented [11] Underground Pipeline Renovation - Policies for urban pipeline renovations are intensifying, with a target of over 100,000 kilometers of underground pipelines to be renovated annually [12] - The total investment demand for pipeline renovations is estimated at around 4 trillion yuan, with an annual average of 1.2 trillion yuan [12]