国信证券发布研报称，基于天立国际控股(01773)当前估值、业务韧性及AI业务成长前景，维持对公 司"优于大市"的评级。考虑到公司办学质量突出，学历学校基本盘稳固，后续通过调整招生政策，降低 招生门槛，预计也有望实现短期财务增长指标和长期生源质量指标的阶段更优平衡。此外公司AI教育 产品为学生提供学习辅助，有望提供业务增长增量。 国信证券主要观点如下： 2025财年公司预计溢利同比增长17%，主业稳健增长 公司发布正面盈利预告，预计2025财年公司将实现收入36亿元/+8%，实现净利润6.5亿元/+17%，分析 主要受益于综合教育服务客户人数增长。本财年利润增速显著高于收入增速，分析系公司聚焦于核心教 育服务业务，盈利质量得到优化，同时学校利用率爬坡，摊薄固定成本。本财年净利润低于该行此前预 期(7.8亿元)，分析下半年度公司在AI教育建设、教师激励、后勤服务优化(如优化食谱、更新设施设备 等)等方面有一次性投入。 风险提示：招生增速持续下滑;教师流失;政策风险等。 外部环境导致招生增速放缓，集团办学质量坚实 2025年秋季学期初服务学生人数同比增长8%，高中服务学生人数同比增长11%，增速边际放缓。考虑 主 ...

2025年秋季学期初服务学生人数同比增长8%，高中服务学生人数同比增长11%，增速边际放缓。考虑 主要系学生家长消费行为更加谨慎保守，同时公办普通高中扩招影响家庭决策。但另一方面公司办学质 量坚实，2025年集团共培养28位清北学子，成熟期学校维持高标准水平，高考本科率维持约90%，一本 率约58%(2024年：55%)。成长期学校本科率、一本率较生源入口成绩也分别提升32%/14%，预计对具 备支付能力的家庭仍有较强的吸引力。 多支业务稳步推进，AI教育产品初步完成成果检验 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，基于天立国际控股(01773)当前估值、业务韧性及AI业务成 长前景，维持对公司"优于大市"的评级。考虑到公司办学质量突出，学历学校基本盘稳固，后续通过调 整招生政策，降低招生门槛，预计也有望实现短期财务增长指标和长期生源质量指标的阶段更优平衡。 此外公司AI教育产品为学生提供学习辅助，有望提供业务增长增量。 国信证券主要观点如下： 2025财年公司预计溢利同比增长17%，主业稳健增长 公司发布正面盈利预告，预计2025财年公司将实现收入36亿元/+8%，实现净利润6.5亿元/+17%，分析 主要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a 17% year-on-year increase in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, driven by a steady growth in its core education services and an increase in the number of clients [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 3.6 billion yuan, representing an 8% increase, and a net profit of 650 million yuan, reflecting a 17% increase for the fiscal year 2025 [1] - The profit growth rate is significantly higher than the revenue growth rate, attributed to the company's focus on core education services and improved profitability quality [1] - The company has revised its net profit expectations down to 650 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, lower than the previous estimate of 780 million yuan due to one-time investments in AI education and other operational optimizations [1] Group 2: Student Enrollment and Quality - The number of students served in the fall semester of 2025 is expected to grow by 8% year-on-year, with high school student numbers increasing by 11%, although the growth rate is slowing [1] - The company has maintained a high standard of educational quality, with a college admission rate of approximately 90% and a first-tier college admission rate of about 58% for mature schools [1] - Emerging schools have shown improvements in college admission rates, with increases of 32% and 14% in overall and first-tier college admission rates, respectively [1] Group 3: Business Development and AI Education - The company has been diversifying its business since 2022, including management services for schools and various educational programs, with an increase in the number of managed schools from 10 to 18 [2] - The company has launched historical-themed study tours, achieving a 20% year-on-year increase in external service participants [2] - The AI education product matrix includes several offerings, with 81% of students in the AI training camp achieving score improvements in their final exams, averaging an increase of 48 points [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Based on the company's current valuation, business resilience, and growth prospects in AI education, the investment rating is maintained at "outperform the market" [3] - The company has adjusted its core operating net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 650 million, 730 million, and 830 million yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 6, 6, and 5 times [3] - The company aims to balance short-term financial growth and long-term student quality by adjusting enrollment policies and lowering admission thresholds [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Insights - The company expects a 17% year-on-year increase in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, driven by a growth in the number of clients for its comprehensive education services [1][9]. - Revenue is projected to reach 3.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% increase, while net profit is anticipated to be 650 million yuan [1][5]. - The profit growth rate is significantly higher than the revenue growth rate, attributed to a focus on core education services and improved utilization rates of schools [1][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - For fiscal years 2023 to 2027, the company forecasts revenue growth from 2.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.2 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.1% [5][18]. - Net profit is expected to grow from 334 million yuan in 2023 to 829 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend [5][18]. Business Performance - The number of students served increased by 8% year-on-year for the fall semester of 2025, with high school student numbers growing by 11% [2][12]. - The company has maintained a high academic standard, with a college admission rate of approximately 90% and a first-tier university admission rate of about 58% [2][12]. AI Education Initiatives - The company has made significant progress in its AI education products, which include various programs that have shown positive results, such as an 81% improvement rate in exam scores among participating students [3][13]. - The AI product matrix is expected to enhance the learning experience and contribute to business growth [4][16]. Operational Developments - The company has expanded its management services to 18 schools, up from 10 in the previous fiscal year, indicating potential for further growth in this area [3][13]. - The introduction of historical theme study tours has also seen a 20% increase in external service participation [3][13].