国信证券发布研报称，基于天立国际控股(01773)当前估值、业务韧性及AI业务成长前景，维持对公 司"优于大市"的评级。考虑到公司办学质量突出，学历学校基本盘稳固，后续通过调整招生政策，降低 招生门槛，预计也有望实现短期财务增长指标和长期生源质量指标的阶段更优平衡。此外公司AI教育 产品为学生提供学习辅助，有望提供业务增长增量。 国信证券主要观点如下： 2025财年公司预计溢利同比增长17%，主业稳健增长 公司发布正面盈利预告，预计2025财年公司将实现收入36亿元/+8%，实现净利润6.5亿元/+17%，分析 主要受益于综合教育服务客户人数增长。本财年利润增速显著高于收入增速，分析系公司聚焦于核心教 育服务业务，盈利质量得到优化，同时学校利用率爬坡，摊薄固定成本。本财年净利润低于该行此前预 期(7.8亿元)，分析下半年度公司在AI教育建设、教师激励、后勤服务优化(如优化食谱、更新设施设备 等)等方面有一次性投入。 风险提示：招生增速持续下滑;教师流失;政策风险等。 外部环境导致招生增速放缓，集团办学质量坚实 2025年秋季学期初服务学生人数同比增长8%，高中服务学生人数同比增长11%，增速边际放缓。考虑 主 ...

2025年秋季学期初服务学生人数同比增长8%，高中服务学生人数同比增长11%，增速边际放缓。考虑 主要系学生家长消费行为更加谨慎保守，同时公办普通高中扩招影响家庭决策。但另一方面公司办学质 量坚实，2025年集团共培养28位清北学子，成熟期学校维持高标准水平，高考本科率维持约90%，一本 率约58%(2024年：55%)。成长期学校本科率、一本率较生源入口成绩也分别提升32%/14%，预计对具 备支付能力的家庭仍有较强的吸引力。 多支业务稳步推进，AI教育产品初步完成成果检验 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，基于天立国际控股(01773)当前估值、业务韧性及AI业务成 长前景，维持对公司"优于大市"的评级。考虑到公司办学质量突出，学历学校基本盘稳固，后续通过调 整招生政策，降低招生门槛，预计也有望实现短期财务增长指标和长期生源质量指标的阶段更优平衡。 此外公司AI教育产品为学生提供学习辅助，有望提供业务增长增量。 国信证券主要观点如下： 2025财年公司预计溢利同比增长17%，主业稳健增长 公司发布正面盈利预告，预计2025财年公司将实现收入36亿元/+8%，实现净利润6.5亿元/+17%，分析 主要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a 17% year-on-year increase in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, driven by a steady growth in its core education services and an increase in the number of clients [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 3.6 billion yuan, representing an 8% increase, and a net profit of 650 million yuan, reflecting a 17% increase for the fiscal year 2025 [1] - The profit growth rate is significantly higher than the revenue growth rate, attributed to the company's focus on core education services and improved profitability quality [1] - The company has revised its net profit expectations down to 650 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, lower than the previous estimate of 780 million yuan due to one-time investments in AI education and other operational optimizations [1] Group 2: Student Enrollment and Quality - The number of students served in the fall semester of 2025 is expected to grow by 8% year-on-year, with high school student numbers increasing by 11%, although the growth rate is slowing [1] - The company has maintained a high standard of educational quality, with a college admission rate of approximately 90% and a first-tier college admission rate of about 58% for mature schools [1] - Emerging schools have shown improvements in college admission rates, with increases of 32% and 14% in overall and first-tier college admission rates, respectively [1] Group 3: Business Development and AI Education - The company has been diversifying its business since 2022, including management services for schools and various educational programs, with an increase in the number of managed schools from 10 to 18 [2] - The company has launched historical-themed study tours, achieving a 20% year-on-year increase in external service participants [2] - The AI education product matrix includes several offerings, with 81% of students in the AI training camp achieving score improvements in their final exams, averaging an increase of 48 points [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Based on the company's current valuation, business resilience, and growth prospects in AI education, the investment rating is maintained at "outperform the market" [3] - The company has adjusted its core operating net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 650 million, 730 million, and 830 million yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 6, 6, and 5 times [3] - The company aims to balance short-term financial growth and long-term student quality by adjusting enrollment policies and lowering admission thresholds [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Insights - The company expects a 17% year-on-year increase in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, driven by a growth in the number of clients for its comprehensive education services [1][9]. - Revenue is projected to reach 3.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% increase, while net profit is anticipated to be 650 million yuan [1][5]. - The profit growth rate is significantly higher than the revenue growth rate, attributed to a focus on core education services and improved utilization rates of schools [1][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - For fiscal years 2023 to 2027, the company forecasts revenue growth from 2.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.2 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.1% [5][18]. - Net profit is expected to grow from 334 million yuan in 2023 to 829 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend [5][18]. Business Performance - The number of students served increased by 8% year-on-year for the fall semester of 2025, with high school student numbers growing by 11% [2][12]. - The company has maintained a high academic standard, with a college admission rate of approximately 90% and a first-tier university admission rate of about 58% [2][12]. AI Education Initiatives - The company has made significant progress in its AI education products, which include various programs that have shown positive results, such as an 81% improvement rate in exam scores among participating students [3][13]. - The AI product matrix is expected to enhance the learning experience and contribute to business growth [4][16]. Operational Developments - The company has expanded its management services to 18 schools, up from 10 in the previous fiscal year, indicating potential for further growth in this area [3][13]. - The introduction of historical theme study tours has also seen a 20% increase in external service participation [3][13].

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts FY2025 revenue of approximately 3.6 billion yuan, representing an 8% year-on-year increase, and a profit of 650 million yuan, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth [1] Revenue Analysis - The decline in student enrollment at self-owned schools has led to a slowdown in revenue growth. In the first half of the year, revenue grew by 14%, while in the second half, the growth rate slowed to about 2.7%. This is attributed to the company's strict control over student recruitment, focusing only on high-ranking quality students, which has been impacted by demographic decline and economic downturn [1] - The profit in the first half of the year increased by 36%, but in the second half, it declined by 3.4%. This decline is mainly due to increased human resource costs for quality teachers, higher investments in AI, and rising food costs due to changes in meal plans and increased protein content [1] Future Outlook - The core business of high school enrollment is expected to slow down, impacting this year's revenue growth. However, the ongoing expansion in the high school sector and the company's focus on enhancing its reputation may benefit long-term quality improvement [1] - The high-margin tutoring business has made breakthroughs, with over 40 tutoring schools currently, indicating potential for gradual growth [1] - The company anticipates steady growth in competency-based education, with future penetration into tutoring school operations. Growth is expected in areas such as research and study tours, competitions, and supply chain services [1] - The AI business is progressing steadily, with commercial layouts and market promotions for AI series products like AI training camps, AI smart classrooms, and AI classrooms expected to provide new growth opportunities [1] Adjusted Financial Forecast - Due to lower-than-expected high school enrollment, the company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 from 3.771 billion/4.401 billion/5.143 billion yuan to 3.597 billion/3.937 billion/4.247 billion yuan. The net profit forecast has been revised down from 757 million/1.016 billion/1.329 billion yuan to 650 million/745 million/838 million yuan [1] - Corresponding adjustments to EPS for FY2025-2027 are from 0.36/0.48/0.63 yuan to 0.31/0.35/0.40 yuan [1] - The company's latest closing price (November 5, 2025) is 2.58 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 8/7/6X for FY2025-2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianli International Holdings is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company anticipates a revenue of approximately 3.6 billion yuan for FY2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8%, with a profit of 650 million yuan, reflecting a 17% increase [2] - The decline in student enrollment at self-owned schools has led to a slowdown in revenue growth, with a 14% increase in the first half of the year, tapering to about 2.7% in the second half due to strict student recruitment policies and external factors such as population decline and economic downturn [3] - Profit growth was 36% in the first half but saw a decline of 3.4% in the second half, attributed to increased costs for quality teaching staff, AI investments, and rising food and operational costs [3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY2025 have been adjusted down from 37.71 billion yuan to 35.97 billion yuan, with net profit estimates reduced from 7.57 billion yuan to 6.50 billion yuan [4] - The company expects to maintain steady growth in its competency business, with potential integration into the tutoring school business, and anticipates growth in various segments including research and competitions [4] - AI initiatives are progressing, with commercial products like AI camps and classrooms expected to generate additional revenue [4] Financial Metrics - For FY2025, the company forecasts total revenue of 3.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.33% [8] - The projected net profit for FY2025 is 650 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.88% [8] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 33.69% [8]

与截至2024年8月31日止年度相比，集团于该年度在收入、溢利方面的财务表现有所改善，主要是由于 集团所提供综合教育服务的客户人数有所增长。展望未来，随着集团各项多元业务的有序推进，及AI 冲刺营、AI智习室、AI课堂等AI系列产品的商业化布局及市场推广，公司对自身业务发展及前景充满 信心，将持续致力以稳健业绩增长回馈广大股东。 （原标题：港股异动 | 天立国际控股(01773)盈喜后涨超8% 公司预计截至8月底年度纯利同比增长约 17%） 消息面上，天立国际控股发布公告，集团预期将于截至2025年8月31日止年度录得收入约人民币36亿 元，较截至2024年8月31日止年度约人民币33.2亿元的收入增长约8%；及溢利约人民币6.50亿元，较截 至2024年8月31日止年度约人民币5.56亿元的溢利增长约17%。 智通财经APP获悉，天立国际控股(01773)再涨超8%，截至发稿，涨6.2%，报2.74港元，成交额6523.39 万港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianli International Holdings (01773) has experienced a significant stock price increase, with a rise of over 8% and a current price of HKD 2.74, driven by positive financial forecasts for the upcoming fiscal year [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates revenue of approximately RMB 3.6 billion for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2025, representing an 8% increase from the estimated RMB 3.32 billion for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2024 [1] - Expected profit for the same period is around RMB 650 million, which marks a 17% increase compared to the estimated RMB 556 million for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2024 [1] Business Growth Factors - The improvement in financial performance is attributed to an increase in the number of clients utilizing the company's comprehensive educational services [1] - The company expresses confidence in its business development and future prospects, supported by the orderly advancement of its diversified operations and the commercialization of AI-related products such as AI Sprint Camp, AI Smart Classroom, and AI Classroom [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tianli International Holdings (01773.HK) expects to achieve significant growth in revenue and profit for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2025, driven by an increase in the number of clients for its comprehensive education services [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates revenue of approximately RMB 3.6 billion, representing an increase of about 8% from the previous year's revenue of approximately RMB 3.32 billion [1] - The expected profit is around RMB 650 million, which marks a growth of approximately 17% compared to the previous year's profit of about RMB 556 million [1] Business Outlook - The company expresses confidence in its business development and future prospects, attributing this optimism to the orderly advancement of its diversified businesses and the commercialization and market promotion of its AI series products, including AI Sprint Camp, AI Smart Classroom, and AI Classroom [1] - The company is committed to delivering steady performance growth to its shareholders [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tianli International Holdings (01773) expects to achieve revenue of approximately RMB 3.6 billion for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2025, representing an increase of about 8% compared to the revenue of approximately RMB 3.32 billion for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2024 [1] - The company anticipates a profit of approximately RMB 650 million, which is an increase of about 17% from the profit of approximately RMB 556 million for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2024 [1] Financial Performance - The financial performance in terms of revenue and profit is expected to improve compared to the fiscal year ending August 31, 2024, primarily due to an increase in the number of clients for the comprehensive education services provided by the company [1] - The projected revenue growth of 8% and profit growth of 17% indicates a positive trend in the company's financial health [1] Future Outlook - The company expresses confidence in its business development and prospects, driven by the orderly advancement of its diversified businesses and the commercialization and market promotion of AI-related products such as AI Sprint Camp, AI Smart Classroom, and AI Classroom [1] - The commitment to steady performance growth aims to reward shareholders in the future [1]